Caixin News Agency, October 25 (Reporter Zhu Wanping) Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) announced tonight that the third quarter performance basically meets expectations, and the revenue growth rate also exceeds the full-year guidance. However, the mid-term dividend issues of concern to investors, as well as when the shareholders' meeting will be held to consider the share repurchase matters, have not yet been confirmed.

The announcement shows that in the first three quarters of this year, Kweichow Moutai achieved revenue of 120.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.95%; the net income attributable to the parent company was 60.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.04%.

Previously, Kweichow Moutai's operating target for this year was to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of around 15%.

(Kweichow Moutai booth Caixin News Agency reporter Zhu Wanping photo)

Looking at the quarterly performance, in Q3 of this year, Kweichow Moutai's revenue was 39.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%; the net income attributable to the parent company was 19.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.23%, which basically meets the expectations of major brokerages.

According to calculations by Caixin News Agency journalists, including Zheshang Securities, gtja, China Merchants Securities, GF Securities, Huachuang Securities, and others, a total of 13 brokers have forecasted Kweichow Moutai's net income for Q3, generally expecting a year-on-year net profit growth rate of 12%-16%.

Looking at the products, in the first three quarters of this year, Moutai wine achieved revenue of 101.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. The Moutai series wine achieved revenue of 19.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.36%. The growth rate of Moutai series wine exceeded the overall revenue growth rate of the company, and the revenue share of Moutai series wine also increased to about 16.1%.

Looking at the channels, in the first three quarters of this year, Guizhou Moutai's direct sales channels (note: self-operated and 'i Moutai' e-commerce platform) achieved revenue of 51.989 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.51%. The wholesale agent channels achieved revenue of 68.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.96%. The proportion of direct sales channels slightly decreased.

The decline in the proportion of direct sales is related to the poor performance of the company's direct sales platform 'i Moutai'.

The financial report shows that in the first three quarters of this year, i Moutai achieved tax-excluded revenue of 14.766 billion yuan from alcoholic beverages, a slight decrease compared to the previous year. The decrease in sales of i Moutai, dragging down the overall performance of the company's direct sales channels.

Why did i Moutai experience negative growth? This is mainly due to the continuous decline in prices of Guizhou Moutai's main products against the backdrop of soft consumer demand. For example, in the third quarter of this year, the wholesale reference price of Long Nian Moutai zodiac wine (53% 500ml) continued to decline, nearly approaching the guidance price of 2499 yuan per bottle. Under continuous price cuts, 'scalpers' in many parts of China have stated that they will no longer buy 'Long Nian Moutai'. Currently, the wholesale reference price of Long Nian Moutai is about 2500 yuan per bottle, with almost no market premium. All of these factors have suppressed speculative demand for i Moutai.

For example, Guizhou Moutai's 1935 (53% 500ml), which achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan last year, is still sold on i Moutai at the official guidance price of 1188 yuan per bottle. However, the selling price of Moutai 1935 on platforms like Pinduoduo is less than 710 yuan per bottle, showing a significant discrepancy from the official guidance price. 'Even considering the ex-factory price, distributors of Moutai 1935 are basically not making any profit.' Some distributors of the Moutai series revealed to Caixin journalists.

In addition to Moutai's third-quarter performance, investors are currently paying considerable attention to two other matters related to Guizhou Moutai. One is the interim dividend issue, and the other is when the extraordinary shareholders' meeting will be held to review the share repurchase proposal. In August this year, when announcing the mid-year financial report, Guizhou Moutai publicly stated that in the next three years, the annual cash dividend amount will not be less than 75% of the net profit attributable to the parent company each year, with annual and mid-term dividends each year. Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of A-share companies have announced interim dividend plans, and the specific interim dividend plan of Guizhou Moutai has attracted considerable attention.

On September 21 this year, Guizhou Moutai announced its intention to repurchase shares through centralized bidding trading with its own funds, using the repurchased shares for cancellation and reduction of registered capital. The repurchase price does not exceed 1795.78 yuan per share (inclusive), with a repurchase amount of 3 billion yuan (inclusive) to -6 billion yuan. The above-mentioned repurchase matters can only be implemented after being reviewed and approved by the shareholders' meeting. Over a month has passed, yet Guizhou Moutai has not been able to determine when the shareholders' meeting will be convened to review the above-mentioned matters. This also means that Guizhou Moutai's first share repurchase initiative in its 23 years on the market has yet to have a confirmed timeline for implementation.

For the capital markets, another focus is on the performance guidance of Kweichow Moutai next year. Against the current backdrop of weak consumption, will Kweichow Moutai's business objectives for next year slow down? If so, to what extent? "We expect that the performance growth guidance of Kweichow Moutai in 2025 may need to be lowered." A food and beverage analyst who declined to be named told Caixin journalists.

Since the beginning of this year, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has cumulatively fallen by about 8%. At a time when the overall stock price is weakening, Kweichow Moutai has held multiple institutional investor communication meetings this year, and the company's management has also made repeated statements to the outside world: Moutai is a guardian of quality, with a solid foundation that can withstand the market's ups and downs, calling on investors to have confidence in Moutai's development.