Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.3% to US$328 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$533m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Medpace Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$3.01 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Medpace Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$2.29b in 2025. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 7.7% to US$12.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.91 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 6.9% to US$349following these changes. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Medpace Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$404 and the most bearish at US$296 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Medpace Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Medpace Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Medpace Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
