国内配用电龙头地位稳固、网外市占率进一步提升。24Q1-3 智能配用电业务收入同比+27%，累计在手订单156.2 亿元，同比+35%，其中国内在手订单93.7 亿元，同比+35%。1）网内方面，24 年国网电表招标同比+25%，其中公司在24 年第二批中标1.43 亿元，份额3.2%（24 年第一批为3.2%），24 年第一批南网电表/配网设备中标份额为8.7%/4.3%（23 年为8.6%/4.5%），第一梯队地位稳固。2）网外方面，公司在提升五大四小覆盖率的同时持续开拓省级公司及地方国资等行业平台客户，市占率快速提升，带动国内业务持续快速增长。Key points of investment
24Q3 revenue +23% YoY, net profit to mother +7% YoY, deducted non-net profit +30% YoY, and deductions slightly exceeded market expectations. The company's 24Q1-3 revenue was 10.43 billion yuan, +25% YoY, net profit 1.82 billion yuan YoY, +22%, net profit 1.75 billion yuan, +31% YoY; of these, 24Q3 revenue was 3.44 billion yuan, +23% YoY, net profit to mother 0.67 billion yuan, +7% YoY. 24Q1-3 gross margin/ net profit margin was 36.2%/17.4%, +2.6/-0.5pct year on year, Q3 gross margin/19.4%, and +0.9/-2.9pct year on year. This is expected to be due to changes in the fair value of the invested private equity funds (after excluding this effect, Q3 profit +33% YoY). The company's business achieved rapid breakthroughs, and deductions far exceeded market expectations.
Overseas territory continued to expand, system integration packages made further breakthroughs, and distribution networks went overseas to maintain high speed. The company's 24Q1-3 overseas orders were 6.246 billion yuan, +35.3% year-on-year. 1) Overseas AMI business continued to break through, winning the bid for Brazil's CEMIG AMI Phase 3 at 0.137 billion yuan and Nigeria's TCN project at 0.493 billion yuan, breaking through the African smart watch turnkey market. 2) The 24Q1-3 overseas power distribution business accumulated orders of 0.962 billion yuan, +272.5% compared with the same period last year. In August, it won the bid for Mexico's 0.08 billion power distribution transformation, completing coverage in the Middle East & Europe & America. The overseas distribution market space is broad, channel multiplexing+overseas production capacity construction, and the company's overseas power distribution business is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
The position of domestic distribution electric faucets is stable, and the market share outside the grid has further increased. The 24Q1-3 smart power distribution business revenue was +27% YoY, with cumulative on-hand orders of 15.62 billion yuan, +35% YoY, and its in-hand orders in China were 9.37 billion yuan, +35% YoY. 1) Within the network, the State Grid electricity meter tenders were +25%. Among them, the company won 0.143 billion yuan in the second batch in '24, with a share of 3.2% (3.2% for the first batch in '24), and the share of the first batch of Southern Grid meters/distribution network equipment in '24 was 8.7%/4.3% (8.6%/4.5% in '23), and the first tier position is stable. 2) On the off-network side, while increasing the coverage rate of the five major and four minor companies, the company continues to explore provincial companies and local state-owned enterprise platform customers. The market share has increased rapidly, driving the domestic business to continue to grow rapidly.
The operation and management of the medical business continues to be strengthened. 24Q1-3's medical service revenue was +22% year-on-year, mainly due to the simultaneous increase in the number of rehabilitation hospitals and single store operations. At the same time, the share of rehabilitation services in the medical sector has increased, driving the sector's gross margin to gradually increase. It is expected that with the further maturity of the hospital system, the sector business is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
Business expansion led to increased expenses and significant improvements in cash flow. The company's expenses for the 24Q1-3/24Q3 period were 1.86/0.63 billion yuan, +40%/-9%, cost ratio 17.8%/18.3%, year-on-year, +1.89/+0.9pct, required for business development; 24Q1-3 net operating cash flow was 1.03 billion yuan, +250% year over year, of which Q3 operating cash flow was 0.77 billion yuan, +567%/+378% year-on-year, with significant cash flow improvement.
Profit forecast and investment rating: slightly adjusted 24-26 net profit to 2.404/3.023/3.771 billion yuan (previous value was 2.401/3.019/3.767 billion yuan), +26%/+25% year-on-year. The corresponding current PE price is 19x, 15x, and 12x, respectively. The corresponding PE price is 19x, 15x, and 12x, respectively. The corresponding target price is 42.8 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Overseas market expansion falls short of expectations, overseas policy risks, and increased competition.
