"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" October 25th news (Reporter Zheng Bingxun) On the evening of the 25th, the well-known vaccine company Bairen Biotech (688276.SH) officially released the third quarter report for 2024. During the reporting period, due to the decrease in sales of the varicella zoster attenuated vaccine, Bairen Biotech achieved 0.408 billion yuan in revenue in the third quarter, a decrease of 40.37% year-on-year, and a net income attributable to the parent company of 0.107 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.41%.

Affected by the performance drag in the third quarter, Bairen Biotech accumulated revenue of 1.026 billion yuan from January to September, a decrease of 17.47% year-on-year, and a net income attributable to the parent company of 0.244 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.19%. Excluding the performance of the third quarter, Bairen Biotech achieved revenue of 0.618 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 10.50% year-on-year, and a net income attributable to the parent company of 0.138 billion yuan, an increase of 23.54% year-on-year.

As a company specializing in the research, production, and sales of human vaccines, Bairen Biotech currently has 3 approved vaccines on the market, including varicella vaccines, nasal spray influenza vaccines, and herpes zoster vaccines. Among them, the herpes zoster vaccine was approved for market launch by the National Medical Products Administration at the beginning of 2023, breaking the domestic monopoly of imported vaccines in the prevention of herpes zoster products.

Prior to the market launch of the herpes zoster vaccine, Bairen Biotech's largest revenue came from varicella vaccines. For example, in 2021 and 2022, Bairen Biotech achieved revenues of 1.202 billion yuan and 1.071 billion yuan, with varicella vaccine revenues of 1.02 billion yuan and 0.957 billion yuan, accounting for 84.88% and 89.33% of total revenues, respectively.

With the market launch of the herpes zoster vaccine, Bairen Biotech achieved revenue of 1.825 billion yuan for the full year of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 70.30%. Among them, the sales revenue of the herpes zoster vaccine reached 0.883 billion yuan, accounting for 48.38% of total revenue, surpassing the sales revenue of the varicella vaccine of 0.82 billion yuan and a revenue share of 44.93%.

However, Bairen Biotech had previously warned that shortly after the market approval of the herpes zoster vaccine, new product market cultivation takes time, and if market access, promotion, etc., do not meet expectations, the market growth potential may be somewhat limited.

Before the launch of Baike Bio's product, there were still two herpes zoster vaccines on the market globally, namely, Merck's Zostavax and GlaxoSmithKline's Shingrix.

Although Zostavax was approved by the FDA as early as 2006, it did not enter the Chinese market. After Shingrix was approved by the FDA in 2017, it also obtained approval for import registration from the National Medical Products Administration in 2019 and was officially launched for sale in China in June 2020. Currently, Shingrix is undoubtedly the 'strong competitor' of Baike Bio's herpes zoster vaccine.

In 2023, Shingrix achieved sales of £3.446 billion, equivalent to about RMB 31.422 billion, becoming GlaxoSmithKline's highest-selling product. China International Capital Corporation's research department estimates that Shingrix's sales in China in 2023 were about 2 billion yuan.

It is worth mentioning that GlaxoSmithKline reached an exclusive cooperation agreement with Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122.SZ) on Shingrix in 2023. Zhifei Biological will be responsible for marketing, promoting, importing, and selling Shingrix in mainland China. According to the agreement, the minimum purchase amounts for Shingrix vaccine from 2024 to 2026 are 3.44 billion yuan, 6.88 billion yuan, and 10.32 billion yuan, totaling 20.64 billion yuan. China International Capital Corporation predicts that Shingrix will significantly accelerate compared to the previous release in 2023.

In fact, in the herpes zoster vaccine track, apart from the products already on the market posing a challenge to Baike Bio, there are multiple companies strategically planning related products. Baike Bio is facing several potential competitors.

As of May 2024, 17 companies worldwide are developing herpes zoster vaccines, with 14 in China alone. Leading the progress are Lanzhu Bio, Yidao Bio/Zhonghuieyuantong, Meikocong Bio, and other companies. Their related products are in Phase III clinical trials. Other companies that have initiated clinical research include Cansino Biologics Inc., Ruikang Bio, and more.

According to the 'Herpes Zoster Vaccine Prevention Immunization Expert Consensus (2022 Edition),' the annual incidence rate of herpes zoster in the general population globally is about 3-5 individuals per 1000 people, while in China, this data is about 2.8-5.8 individuals per 1000 people annually. Data from Frost & Sullivan shows that in 2021, the number of new cases of herpes zoster among people aged 50 and above in China was 3.9 million and is expected to reach 4.9 million by 2025.