Kinsevere 扩建项目于2024 年9 月投产，Khoemacau 运营改善2024Q3 Kinsevere 实现电解铜产量1.30 万吨，同比增长6%，环比增长12%，主要得益于供电稳定性增强以及来自Sokoroshe II 矿坑的矿石供应增加。Kinsevere扩建项目于2024 年9 月首次从硫化矿产出电解铜，预计在2025 年全面达产，Kinsevere 矿山电解铜年产能将由4 万吨提升至8 万吨。在运营改善措施的推动下，2024Q3 Khoemacau 矿山铜精矿含铜产量达到1.08 万吨，环比增长22%。occurrences
The company announced production results for the third quarter of 2024. 2024Q3 achieved copper production of 0.1147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 26%; zinc production was 0.0464 million tons, down 22% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month.
The Chalcobamba mine began operation, and the continuous increase in production of the main mine Las Bambas benefited from improved ore grade. The copper production of the 2024Q3 Las Bambas mine copper concentrate was 0.0906 million tons, up 11% year on year and 29% month on month; achieving the highest quarterly production since 2021. Since the Chalcobamba mine began operation, the company's strategy was to integrate ore from the Chalcobamba and Ferrobamba mines to effectively ensure maximum copper production while optimizing resource utilization. It is estimated that the annual copper production of Las Bambas copper concentrate in 2024Q4 will exceed 0.4 million tons, once again ranking among the top ten copper mines in the world. Additionally, benefiting from increased production, increased efficiency in the use of auxiliary materials, and increased by-product returns due to higher precious metal prices, the C1 cost for Las Bambas is expected to be in the lower end of $1.55-1.75 per pound in 2024.
The Kinsevere expansion project was put into operation in September 2024. Khoemacau's operation improved 2024Q3 Kinsevere to achieve 0.013 million tons of electrolytic copper production, up 6% year over year and 12% month on month, mainly due to enhanced power supply stability and increased ore supply from the Sokoroshe II mine. The Kinseever expansion project first produced electrolytic copper from sulfide minerals in September 2024. It is expected to be fully produced in 2025, and the annual production capacity of the Kinsevere mine will increase from 0.04 million tons to 0.08 million tons of electrolytic copper. Driven by operational improvement measures, copper production in the 2024Q3 Khoemacau mine copper concentrate reached 0.0108 million tons, an increase of 22% over the previous month.
The pre-feasibility study for the Khoemacau mine expansion project has been completed. The feasibility study is scheduled to begin at the end of the year. Construction of the expansion project is expected to begin in 2026 and put into operation in 2028.
Due to Dugald River's unplanned shutdown and maintenance, Q3 zinc production fell to 0.0348 million tons of zinc and 4295 tons of lead concentrate in 2024Q3, respectively, down 26% and 33% year-on-year, respectively; the 2024 annual Dugald River zinc concentrate zinc production guidelines were adjusted from 0.175-0.19 million tons to 0.16-0.175 million tons. The large decline in Q3 production was mainly due to the impact of the unplanned shutdown and maintenance of the self-grinding mill in July-August. After replacing the affected components, the mine resumed normal production in September.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's copper production is expected to grow, compounded by the upward cycle of copper prices, and the company's performance growth momentum is strong. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.26/0.365/0.467 billion US dollars, respectively, up 2793%/40.35%/27.81% year over year; based on the USD/HKD exchange rate of 7.77, EPS will be HK$0.17/0.23/0.30, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15.9/11.4/8.9 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Project construction progress falls short of expectations; risk of a sharp drop in metal prices; geopolitical and policy risks; safety and environmental risks; ESG-related risks.
