关注放置优势品类新游上线进展。后续自研产品方面，MMO+放置《杖剑传说（代号M88）》预计25H1 上线；放置挂机+修仙题材《问剑长生（代号M72）》为《一念逍遥》同一制作人，主打国内+港澳台市场，预计24 年底或25H1 上线。代理产品《异界原点传说：史莱姆不哭》、《异象回声》iOS 预计24Q4 上线。Incident: The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 24 was 2.82 billion yuan, down 14.8% year on year; net profit due to mother was 0.66 billion yuan, down 23.5% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.61 billion yuan, down 25.5% year on year; corresponding to the single quarter of 24Q3, the company's revenue was 0.859 billion yuan, down 10.4% year on year; net profit due to mother was 0.14 billion yuan, down 23.8% year on year; net profit without return to mother was 0.151 billion yuan, year on year The decline was 15.3%, excluding adjusted net profit of 0.155 billion yuan from foreign exchange and investment. The year-on-year decline was 24.7%. The balance of recharges and items that had not yet been amortized decreased by 42 million yuan month-on-month to 0.474 billion yuan. We expect the decline in 24Q3 results mainly due to a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit of “Enquiry” mobile games, “Enquiry Mobile Games” and “Easy Thinking (Mainland Edition)” in the third quarter. 24Q3 gross margin increased by 1.5pct/1.74pct to 89% year over month, respectively. The sales expense ratio increased 2.11pct/5.27pct yoy to 28.9%. The R&D cost rate increased by +3.4pct/+2.5pct YoY to 22.4%.
At the same time, the company disclosed the 24Q3 profit distribution plan. It plans to distribute 20 yuan for every 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of 0.144 billion yuan. The dividend rate is 103%. The dividend rate corresponding to the 10/24 closing price of the dividend is 0.9%. Up to now this year, the dividend rate corresponding to dividends is 2.9%.
The core product Q3 is still under some pressure, but the decline in mobile games has narrowed. The average monthly turnover of the “Enquiry” mobile game in March was 75 million yuan, down 11.4% from the previous year; the average monthly turnover of the “Enquiry” mobile game was 0.152 billion yuan, down 12.6% from the previous year; the average monthly turnover of “One Nian Xiaoyao (Mainland Edition)” was 56 million yuan, down 18.4% year on year, but the decline was relatively small compared to third-party data monitoring such as Sensor Tower (SST monitors iOS 24Q3 mobile games by -34.1% and -45.9%, respectively), and the core mobile game is compared to 24H1 The decline narrowed. Overseas revenue from January to September increased 99.6% year-on-year to 0.369 billion yuan, but considering R&D costs, the overall overseas game business has yet to generate profits.
Follow the progress of the launch of new games in competitive categories. In terms of subsequent self-developed products, MMO+ is expected to launch “The Legend of the Fist and Sword (code: M88)”; the “Call to Eternal Sword” (code name M72) is the same producer as “Easy Thinking”, focusing on the domestic+Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan markets, and is expected to be launched by the end of 24 or 25H1. The proxy products “Legend of Otherworld Origin: Slime Doesn't Cry” and “Echo of Visions” are expected to launch on iOS in 24Q4.
Profit forecasting and valuation analysis. We expect net profit to be increased by -24.89%, 13.32%, and 14.09% year-on-year in 2024-2026 to be 0.845 billion yuan, 0.958 billion yuan, and 1,093 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to 2024-2026 PE is 19X/17X/14X, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of declining game volume, delays in the launch of new games, and uncertainty about policy regulation.
