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决策分析:风暴凶猛来袭!美元大跌后防守,黄金有望连涨三周

Decision Analysis: Fierce storm approaching! Defend after the sharp drop of the US dollar, gold is expected to rise for three consecutive weeks.

FX168 ·  Oct 25 17:06

FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia-Pacific) News On Friday (October 25), the US dollar against major currency pairs is in a defensive position after hitting the largest one-month decline, as suppressed US Treasury prices attract buying interest, causing yields to fall from their near three-month top reversal.

Asian stock markets are mixed, with some markets following the rise of Wall Street overnight, while the Japanese Nikkei index fell by 1% due to the strong rebound of the yen from a three-week low against the US dollar, along with the possibility that the ruling coalition in Japan may lose its majority in the House of Representatives in Sunday's election. #DecisionAnalysis#

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the blue-chip stock index in mainland China both rose by about 1%. The benchmark indices in Australia and South Korea remained flat.

The US dollar is expected to rise for the fourth consecutive week this week, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds will rise for the sixth consecutive week, mainly supported by strong US economic data, indicating that the Fed will adopt a very cautious approach to rate cuts. The continually rising bond yields have made stock market investors uneasy, resulting in a 1.2% decline in the MSCI Global Equity Index so far this week.

A series of potential key events will unfold next week, including the US monthly jobs report on Friday, followed by the US presidential election on November 5th, and two days later, the Fed's policy decision. Next week will also see major technology companies such as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft releasing their earnings reports.

Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst at Capital.com, said: "There is still a certain level of caution in the market, and stock performance varies due to a combination of macroeconomic, income, and political risks."

Rodda said that overnight economic data sent positive signals, providing room for a certain degree of risk-taking investment.

Unexpected data on Thursday showed a decrease in new US jobless claims. Previously, the September jobs report exceeded expectations, becoming the catalyst for the repricing of the Fed's rate cut path since the beginning of this month.

On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield slipped to 4.1742%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day. On Wednesday, the yield touched a three-month high of 4.26%.

At the same time, the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, traded around 104, falling from Wednesday's three-month high of 104.57, but accumulating a 0.54% increase this week.

The yen strengthened against the dollar, falling 0.18% to 151.55, as Japanese officials issued more warnings to speculators betting on the depreciation of the yen, supporting the yen. The euro edged down 0.04% to $1.0823, while the British pound fell 0.08% to $1.2966.

Speculation in some gambling markets about Trump winning increased, also supporting US bond yields and the dollar due to the inflationary tax and tariff policies of Republican candidate Trump.

In terms of commodities, driven by production risks from Middle East conflicts, crude oil is expected to achieve gains this week.Its price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Gold has risen for a third consecutive week.

On Friday, gold slightly retreated to $2,728, but is expected to rise by 0.29% this week.

Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.24% to $74.56 per barrel, while crude oil futures in the USA rose by 0.23% to $70.36 per barrel.

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