维持“增持” 评级。考虑到国内客流大盘疲弱及同期高基数压力，下调预计公司2024-2026 年经调整净利润分别为27.51/33.42/40.23亿元（原值28.69/34.48/41.32 亿元）。海外加速拓店叠加IP 策略推进发力，成长空间可期，给予2024 年20xPE，下调目标价至47.40港元（原值49.60 港元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The growth rate of overseas agents is expected to be stronger than expected in 2024Q3, and domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected; overseas store expansion continues to gain strength, and Q4 contributions can be expected to be released.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Taking into account the weak domestic passenger flow market and high base pressure during the same period, the adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 2.751/3.342/4.023 billion yuan, respectively (original value 2.869/3.448/4.132 billion yuan). Accelerating overseas store expansion and superposition IP strategies are gaining momentum. There is room for growth. 20xPE will be given in 2024, the target price will be lowered to HK$47.40 (original value of HK$49.60), and the “gain” rating will be maintained.
Overseas agent growth is expected to be stronger than expected in 2024Q3, and domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. Considering the quarterly fluctuations in the pace of overseas agent shipments and the high base figure boosted by Barbie in the same period, we expect the company's revenue growth rate to be about 18.3% in 2024Q3, corresponding revenue of about 4.484 billion yuan; domestic revenue growth is expected to be about 7.0% in 2024Q3, corresponding to 55%/28% of the overseas direct marketing/agency market growth rate, respectively. Considering the steady increase in the share of overseas direct business with high gross margin in 2024Q3, gross margin is expected to increase year-on-year and month-on-month; considering that the upfront costs brought about by the acceleration of overseas store expansion in the single quarter of 2024Q3 and storage expenses due to accelerated peak season preparation are stabilizing, the sales and management expenses ratio is expected to be 26.10%, and the adjusted net interest rate is about 15.5%, and the corresponding adjusted net profit is about 0.694 billion yuan.
Store expansion is progressing as scheduled, and Harry Potter IP can be expected to boost the same store's performance. We expect a net increase of over 100 domestic stores and a net increase of 150-200 overseas stores in 2024Q3, in line with the annual pace of opening stores (annual domestic net increase of 350-450, net overseas increase of 550-650 stores). The Harry Potter IP co-branded product went on sale at four pop-up stores nationwide on October 18, and will be launched in omni-channel sales on October 31. Global sales are expected to drive sales in domestic and overseas markets, further boosting franchisees' willingness to open stores and agents to pick up goods, and the performance is expected.
IP boosts brand potential, accelerates the release of overseas stores, and 2024Q4's profit performance can be expected. Based on: ① the continuous advancement of major domestic store strategies, which is expected to drive a continuous increase in the share of IP sales; ② driven by direct management in overseas markets, with the gradual release of operating leverage; ③ benefiting from the increase in the share of high-margin products, driving the increase in TOP TOY's gross margin; it is expected that the company's overall gross margin will increase further. With the further release of overseas direct business store efficiency, Tuodian's crypto operating leverage will be released. There is still plenty of room for optimization of profitability, which can be expected to drive overall profit side release and boost.
Risk warning: Fluctuations in shipping costs and customs policies, and the risk of same-store expansion falling short of expectations.
