上调盈利预期，维持“增持”评级。公司大客户订单高景气叠加产能利用率及原材料正向贡献，带动业绩超预期，考虑当前公司经营趋势的，我们上调盈利预期，预计公司2024-2026 年EPS 为1.01/1.16/1.34 元（原0.95/1.09/1.26 元），参考行业估值水平，给予公司2024 年20.8xPE，上调目标价至20.93 元（原18.59 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Thanks to the company's excellent operating capacity, customer orders and favorable factors on the manufacturing side resonated, which led to performance exceeding expectations, we raised the company's profit expectations.
Key points of investment:
Profit expectations were raised and the “increase in holdings” rating was maintained. The company's high order boom combined with the positive contribution of production capacity utilization and raw materials led to performance exceeding expectations. Considering the company's current business trends, we raised profit expectations. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.01/1.16/1.34 yuan (previously 0.95/1.09/1.26 yuan). Referring to the industry valuation level, the company was given 20.8xPE in 2024, and the target price was raised to 20.93 yuan (previously 18.59 yuan), maintaining the “gain” rating.
Customer orders are blooming more and more, and revenue growth is impressive. In terms of customers, the revenue growth rate of 2024Q3 Walmart customers (Walmart+Sam's combined caliber) was slightly lower than the company's overall. Orders from Pets at Home customers gradually returned to normal, and revenue in the third quarter of a single quarter achieved high growth, driving cumulative revenue back to positive growth. The Amazon channel benefited from the smooth progress of customer delivery. Combined with the low base for the same period in 2023, it is expected to also achieve a high growth rate. In terms of new customers, Costco orders continued to be introduced, and the area covered by orders was expanded, driving revenue up month-on-month. In terms of volume and price, the average unit price of 2024Q3 products is expected to increase slightly month-on-month, mainly due to improvements in customer and product structure.
After reverting exchange losses, Q3 profit also increased by 45% +. 2024Q3's gross margin/net profit margin was 20.7%/11.1%, -1.2/-0.8 pct year on year, +1.2/-1.3 pct month on month. The month-on-month increase in gross margin was mainly due to a slight decline in the price of raw materials such as fluff pulp, increased capacity utilization, and internal cost reduction and efficiency strategies. The year-on-year decline in gross margin was mainly affected by the exchange rate. 2024Q3's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was 1.3%/2.6%/1.0%/1.1%, -0.6/-0.6/+1.4pct year-on-year. The 2024Q3 company's exchange loss is expected to be 6 million+. We estimate that after restoring the exchange loss, the net profit of 2024Q3 company to mother will also increase 45% +.
Domestic and international dual cycle strategies are being promoted, and the high order boom continues. The company adheres to a dual cycle strategy at home and abroad, the orderly expansion of new overseas customers, the gradual cultivation of domestic OBM's own brands, benefiting from high demand for pets & introduction of channel customers & peak channel preparation, judging that 2024Q4 orders will continue to be booming, and that increased capacity utilization in new plants and internal cost control will further drive profit flexibility.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials continue to rise, downstream consumer demand falls short of expectations, etc.
