单店压力加大，24Q3 营收同比小幅下降。单24Q3 公司鲜货类产品营收同比-4.4％，其中预计公司开店保持相对稳健，而单店压力进一步加大，其中细分产品上，夫妻肺片/整禽类/其他鲜货销售收入分别同比-6.4%/-6.8%/-8.5%，而香辣休闲产品营收同比+20.6％，预计主要受到新品放量带动。分渠道来看，单24Q3 经销/直营分别同比-8.6%/-4.5%。分地区来看，核心区域华东同比-2.8%，但增速环比有所改善，其他地区则均有一定程度下降，华中/西南/华北/华南/西北/东北地区分别同比-1.9%/-0.7%/-9.0%/-28.7%/-9.1%/-48.9%。Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters, revenue was 2.69 billion, -4.6% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.35 billion yuan, +2.2% year over year. Q3 alone achieved revenue of 1.02 billion, -4.6% YoY; net profit to mother 0.15 billion, or -6.8% YoY.
Commentary:
Single store pressure increased, and 24Q3 revenue declined slightly year over year. The revenue of fresh goods products of Single 24Q3 is -4.4% year on year. Among them, the company is expected to remain relatively steady, and the pressure on single stores will increase further. Among them, in terms of segmented products, sales revenue of husband and wife's lung fillets, whole poultry, and other fresh goods was -6.4%/-8.5%, respectively, while revenue from spicy and casual products was +20.6% year over year, which is expected to be mainly driven by the release of new products. By channel, single 24Q3 distribution/direct management were -8.6%/-4.5%, respectively. By region, the core region of East China was -2.8% year over year, but the growth rate improved, while all other regions declined to a certain extent. Central China/Southwest/North China/South China/Northwest/Northwest/Northeast China were -1.9%/-0.7%/-9.0%/-28.7%/-9.1%/-48.9%, respectively.
The product structure dragged down gross profit, causing profit improvements to fall short of expectations. The 24Q3 company achieved a gross margin of 28.5%, or 0.6 pcts year over year. Although the prices of the main raw materials such as beef and chicken claws dropped to a certain extent year on year, it is estimated that the production scale effect was slightly lost, and the second is that the share of spicy leisure products with low gross profit margin increased, resulting in a lower gross margin than previously anticipated. However, the overall cost side remained stable. Among them, the sales expense ratio was -0.4 pcts year over year, while the management expense ratio was +0.9 pcts year over year, which is expected to be affected by additional equity incentive costs. In addition, the R&D/finance expense ratio is +0.2/+0.2 pcts year over year, respectively. The final net profit margin was 14.7%, -0.3 pcts year over year, lower than previously anticipated.
The company is steadily exploring potential growth points. After external demand improves, fundamentals are expected to improve in the future. In terms of opening stores, the company launched the “Super Development City” and “Yuxin City” plans in the first half of the year, increasing the layout of key cities. In the second half of the year, it aimed to strategically open stores. The public account revealed “100 additional stores in July”. Overall, the company launched a new “super store” strategy, used Douyin vouchers offline to increase store arrival rates, and relied on takeout to boost single-store revenue as much as possible. Furthermore, in addition to a series of foreign investment cooperation, the company is still actively cultivating sub-brands such as “Qiaochuan Ba” and “Yan Xiaoji” Roasted Whole Chicken, etc., to lay out a new growth curve. Overall, the company's revenue side is expected to remain under strong pressure during the year, and considering the impact of seasonal fluctuations, the overall contribution of Q4 is also expected to be limited. In the coming year, along with continued strength in macroeconomic policies, plus active exploration of potential revenue growth points, subsequent companies are expected to return to a steady growth path after stabilizing the low base of individual stores.
Investment advice: Single store pressure continues, profit expectations are slightly lower, and the “recommended” rating is maintained. The short-term external environment suppressed, but the company's actions related to expanding stores, promoting new products, going overseas, and building sub-brands are still progressing steadily. After macroeconomic expectations shift, the company's internal growth potential is still sufficient, and at the same time, a high dividend ratio can also provide some valuation support.
Based on the situation in the third quarter, we adjusted the 24-26 EPS forecast to be 0.85/0.92/1.00 yuan (the original forecast was 0.89/0.97/1.07 yuan), which corresponds to the P/E valuation 20/18/17 times. We gave the company a target price of 19 yuan, corresponding to about 21 times PE in 25 years, maintaining a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Recovery falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, dividend ratio falls short of expectations, and cost improvements fall short of expectations.
