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A preview of the upcoming Microsoft financial report! The competition in AI is intensifying, can the intelligent cloud continue to serve as the "growth engine"?

Futu News · Oct 25 17:38

$微软 (MSFT.US)$ 定于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第一季度财务报告，机构预计实现营收645.42亿美元，同比增加14.2%；预期每股收益3.10美元，同比增加3.76%。

在2024上半年上涨了约25%之后，微软股价曾于7月上旬触及468.35美元的历史新高，此后停滞不前。

回顾2024财年第四季度业绩，微软营收647.3亿美元，同比增长15%，增长放缓，但高于市场预期，具体分核心部门来看：

智能云：包括Azure公共云、Windows服务器、语音识别软件Nuance和GitHub的智能云业务部门营收285.2亿美元，同比增长19%。增长放缓但略超分析师预期。
生产力和业务流程：包括Microsoft 365 Copilot AI工具等Office软件在内的生产力和业务流程部门营收203.2亿美元，同比增长11%。符合预期。
更多个人计算：包括包含Windows操作系统、Surface硬件、Xbox游戏机以及视频游戏公司动视暴雪在内的更多个人计算业务部门营收159亿美元，同比增长14%。营收不及预期。

此外，微软2024财年第四季度在现金资本支出和设备购买上，花费了足足190亿美元，同比增长78%，相当于5年前一整年的支出总额。这190亿美元几乎全部与云和AI有关，其中大约一半用于建设和租赁数据中心。AI投资大出血引发微软股价下跌。

展望本次2025财年第一季度业绩，市场将密切关注Azure和云服务的增长率以及任何关于AI驱动贡献的业绩变化，其次微软AI能力的进展、与新合作伙伴的关系和项目都将受到密切关注。

市场关注智能云能否带来更多增长

在微软的三个部门中，智能云对总收入贡献最大。即将发布的2025财年第一季度业绩中，智能云会是投资者关注的最关键领域之一。

特别是考虑到近几个月人工智能的发展，与亚马逊Web Services和谷歌在人工智能（AI）领域的主导地位展开激烈竞争，引发了人们对微软智能云业务部门在竞争日益激烈的市场中失去增长动力的担忧。

目前，Azure AI为超过六万名客户提供服务。不过，微软在今年8月份突然调整了业务部门结构，并相应下调收入增长预期。

微软将Microsoft 365商用组件（Office商业产品和云服务、Power BI、企业移动性与安全以及Windows商业产品和云服务）的收入，汇总到其生产力和业务流程（Productivity and Business Processes）部门。
将Copilot Pro人工智能生产力工具的收入转移到其更多个人计算部门（More Personal Computing）。

微软指出，调整后的新的Azure智能云业务“现在更贴近消费业务”，更透明地反映商业客户在Azure中积极使用计算和存储服务的情况。摩根士丹利表示，微软所做的报告更改应该可以“更清晰地”了解其最重要的Azure细分市场。

Piper Sandler分析师认为，8月份发布的新调整尚未完全反映在预期中，包括对Azure的重大变化，微软即将发布的业绩可能会喜忧参半。“根据我们的估计，Azure IaaS的收入现在下降了20%以上，本季度的增长幅度可能会降至33-34%。即使在缓和了Copilot的假设之后，鉴于 OpenAI的三位数增长前景，我们仍然看好Microsoft AI。”

花旗对销售商及业务伙伴的渠道调查显示，微软季度业务稳定，该行认为微软本季度业绩或略胜预期。该行预期，市场将在下半财年云服务及人工智能需求迹象及管理层重申资本开支及回报的言论中，对公司有更大信心。

不过也有分析指出AWS (亚马逊网络服务)和GCP(谷歌云端平台)实际上比微软Azure更具优势。DA Davidson分析师认为，前两家有能力将自家研发芯片应用到他们的资料中心，成本比起英伟达芯片低得多，但微软目前仍未生产出自研芯片。

微软AI生产力工具的增长势头的持续性

在2025第一财季中，微软Dynamics 365和Power Platform业务的增长势头将引起市场的重大兴趣。按微软今年8月份的业务结构调整，以上两业务目前属于生产力和业务流程（Productivity and Business Processes）部门。

Dynamics 365，即微软的CRM和ERP解决方案，在上个季度的收入增长了19%，投资者将非常希望看到这种势头能够持续，特别是微软正在集成像Copilot这样的AI驱动功能，微软还在最近的技术会议上大力推广了这一功能。

微软Power Platform业务包括了像Power BI、Power Apps和Power Automate这样的重要产品。这些工具使用的用户数量已经大幅增长，目前拥有超过4800万的月活跃用户。

微软管理层在上个月的花旗全球TMT会议上强调，企业采用与AI集成的低代码解决方案推动了该平台在过去一年中40%的增长。值得注意的是，管理层相信从长远来看活跃用户数量可以扩大10倍。

微软绩前还有哪些要留意的新消息？

1、微软Q4对GB200的订单量激增3-4倍，超所有其他云服务商总和

知名分析师郭明錤最新发布英伟达Blackwell GB200芯片的产业链订单信息显示，目前微软是全球最大的GB200客户，今年第四季度订单量激增3-4倍，订单量超过其他所有云服务商的总和。郭明錤在报告中表示，Blackwell芯片的产能扩张预计在今年第四季度初启动，届时第四季度的出货量将在15万到20万块之间，预计2025年第一季度出货量将显著增长200%到250%，达到50万到55万块。

2、OpenAI与微软聘请投行就股权转化问题展开谈判

微软和OpenAI双方都已聘请投资银行来为这次谈判提供建议，足见其重要性。分析认为，在OpenAI转型为盈利性企业时，如何分配股权是其面临的最大挑战之一。而作为OpenAI迄今为止最大的投资者，微软可能会获得该公司大量股权。

3、微软拟推出10款新代理，打造全套AI工具，剑指Salesforce

11月开始，微软公司将允许企业开始制造个性化的自主人工智能（AI）代理，还宣布将推出10款全新的AI自动代理（Autonomous Agents），旨在帮助企业员工更高效地完成各类任务。微软此举意在向全球最大的SaaS（软件即服务）公司Salesforce“宣战”，后者在9月份推出了首款可以完全自主的AI代理工具。

4、微软人工智能研究高管跳槽至OpenAI

微软主管生成式人工智能研究的副总裁Sebastien Bubeck将离开公司，转到OpenAI任职。微软发言人指出，Bubeck在OpenAI负责研究通用人工智能(AGI)事务，公司期望Bubeck未来的工作与微软继续有关连。微软是OpenAI最大投资者之一。微软表示，与Bubeck过往在微软合作开发Phi LLM的团队，仍会留在微软工作，并继续发展相关项目。

编辑/Rocky

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Scheduled to release the financial report for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year after the post-market trading on October 30th, with institutions expecting to achieve revenue of $64.542 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; expected earnings per share of $3.10, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%.

After rising by about 25% in the first half of 2024, Microsoft's stock price reached a historical high of $468.35 in early July before stagnating.

Looking back at the performance of the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, Microsoft's revenue was $64.73 billion, a 15% year-on-year growth, slowing down but still higher than market expectations. Specifically, in terms of core departments:

Intelligent Cloud: The intelligent cloud business unit, including Azure public cloud, Windows servers, voice recognition software Nuance, and GitHub, generated revenue of $28.52 billion, a 19% year-on-year growth. The growth rate slowed down slightly but exceeded analyst expectations.
Productivity and Business Processes: The productivity and business processes department, including Microsoft 365 Copilot AI tools and other office software, generated revenue of $20.32 billion, an 11% year-on-year growth. It met expectations.
More Personal Computing: The More Personal Computing business unit, including Windows operating system, Surface hardware, Xbox game console, and video game company Activision Blizzard, generated revenue of $15.9 billion, a 14% year-on-year growth. Revenue fell short of expectations.

In addition, in the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, Microsoft spent a whopping $19 billion on cash capital expenditures and equipment purchases, a 78% year-on-year increase, equivalent to the total expenditure for an entire year five years ago. Nearly all of this $19 billion is related to cloud and AI, with approximately half used for building and leasing datacenters. AI investments led to a significant drop in Microsoft's stock price.

Looking ahead to the first quarter performance of the 2025 fiscal year, the market will closely watch the growth rates of Azure and cloud computing services, as well as any performance changes related to AI-driven contributions. Additionally, the progress of Microsoft's AI capabilities, relationships with new partners, and projects will also be closely monitored.

The market is focused on whether the intelligent cloud can bring more growth.

Among Microsoft's three divisions, the intelligent cloud contributes the most to total revenue. In the upcoming first quarter performance of the 2025 fiscal year, the intelligent cloud will be one of the key areas investors pay attention to.

Especially considering the recent development of artificial intelligence in the past few months, the intense competition in the field of AI between Amazon Web Services and Google has raised concerns about Microsoft's intelligent cloud business division losing momentum in an increasingly competitive market.

Currently, Azure AI serves over 60,000 customers. However, Microsoft suddenly adjusted the business department structure in August this year and correspondingly lowered revenue growth expectations.

Microsoft aggregates the revenue of Microsoft 365 commercial components (Office commercial products and cloud computing services, Power BI, Enterprise Mobility and Security, as well as Windows commercial products and cloud computing services) into its Productivity and Business Processes segment.
Transfer the revenue of Copilot Pro artificial intelligence productivity tools to its More Personal Computing division.

Microsoft stated that the newly adjusted Azure intelligent cloud business is now 'closer to consumer business' and more transparently reflects the active usage of compute and storage services by business customers in Azure. Morgan Stanley indicated that Microsoft's reporting changes should provide a 'clearer' understanding of its most important Azure segment market.

Piper Sandler analysts believe that the new adjustments released in August have not been fully reflected in expectations, including significant changes to Azure. Microsoft's upcoming performance may be mixed. "According to our estimates, Azure IaaS revenue has now declined by over 20%, and the growth rate for this quarter may drop to 33-34%. Even after easing the assumptions with Copilot, given the triple-digit growth outlook of OpenAI, we remain bullish on Microsoft AI.

Citi's channel survey of sales partners and business partners shows that Microsoft's quarterly business is stable, and the bank believes that Microsoft's performance this quarter may slightly exceed expectations. The bank expects the market to have greater confidence in the company in the second half of the fiscal year based on signs of cloud services and artificial intelligence demand as well as management's reaffirmation of capital spending and return.

However, some analysts also pointed out that AWS (Amazon Web Services) and GCP (Google Cloud Platform) actually have advantages over Microsoft Azure. DA Davidson analysts believe the first two are capable of applying their self-developed chips to their data centers, at a much lower cost compared to Nvidia chips, but Microsoft has not yet produced its own chips.

The continued growth momentum of Microsoft's AI productivity tools

In the first quarter of 2025, the growth momentum of Microsoft Dynamics 365 and Power Platform business will draw significant interest from the market. According to Microsoft's business restructuring in August this year, the two businesses currently belong to the Productivity and Business Processes department.

Dynamics 365, Microsoft's CRM and ERP solutions, saw a revenue growth of 19% in the last quarter. Investors are eagerly looking forward to seeing this momentum continue, especially as Microsoft integrates AI-driven features like Copilot, which the company heavily promoted at a recent tech conference.

Microsoft's Power Platform business includes important products such as Power BI, Power Apps, and Power Automate. The number of users of these tools has significantly increased, with over 48 million monthly active users.

Microsoft management emphasized at last month's Citi Global TMT conference that the adoption of low-code solutions integrated with AI has driven the platform's 40% growth over the past year. It is noteworthy that management believes that the number of active users can increase tenfold in the long run.

What other important news should we pay attention to before Microsoft's performance?

1. In Q4, Microsoft's orders for GB200 surged 3-4 times, surpassing the total of all other cloud computing services.

Renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's latest release of the industry chain order information for Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip shows that Microsoft is currently the largest customer of GB200 globally. In the fourth quarter of this year, the order volume surged 3-4 times, exceeding the total order amount of all other cloud computing service providers. In the report, Kuo mentioned that the capacity expansion of the Blackwell chip is expected to start in the early fourth quarter of this year. At that time, the shipment volume in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 0.15 million and 0.2 million pieces. It is predicted that the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2025 will increase significantly by 200% to 250%, reaching 0.5 million to 0.55 million pieces.

2. OpenAI and Microsoft are negotiating with investment banks on the issue of equity conversion.

Both Microsoft and OpenAI have hired investment banks to provide advice for this negotiation, indicating its importance. Analysts believe that one of the biggest challenges OpenAI faces as it transitions to a for-profit company is how to distribute equity. As the largest investor in OpenAI so far, Microsoft may receive a significant amount of the company's equity.

3. Microsoft plans to launch 10 new agents to create a complete set of AI tools, targeting Salesforce.

Starting in November, Microsoft will allow enterprises to create personalized autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) agents and will also introduce 10 new autonomous agents, aimed at helping employees efficiently complete various tasks. Microsoft's move is aimed at challenging Salesforce, the world's largest Software as a Service (SaaS) company, which launched its first fully autonomous AI agent tool in September.

4. A high-ranking executive in Microsoft's AI research has moved to OpenAI.

Microsoft's vice president in charge of generative artificial intelligence research, Sebastien Bubeck, will leave the company and move to OpenAI. A Microsoft spokesperson said that Bubeck will be responsible for researching General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) affairs at OpenAI, and the company expects Bubeck's future work to remain connected to Microsoft. Microsoft is one of the largest investors in OpenAI. Microsoft stated that the team collaborating with Bubeck in the past on developing Phi LLM at Microsoft will remain at Microsoft and continue to develop related projects.

Editor/Rocky

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