公司Q3 收入平稳增长，海外业务在高基数下增速放缓。分区域看，内销业务，国内小家电市场需求整体仍偏弱，据奥维云网，24 年1-9 月国内小家电零售规模同比-4%，但随着以旧换新政策的逐步落地，9 月以来已出现改善趋势，9 月小家电线上零售额同比+6.5%，公司国内业务收入维持平缓趋势；外销业务，23 年底至今欧美市场需求逐步回升，补库存周期已近中后期，高基数压力下，公司海外收入增速有所放缓，后续公司预计增加与SEB 集团的关联交易额，据10 月24 日公告显示，24 年初/最新关联交易金额预计为62/69.5 亿元，新增约7.5 亿元，截至披露日期关联交易额已完成5.8 亿元。Brief performance review
On October 25, 2024, the company disclosed the three-quarter report. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 16.51 billion, +7.5% YoY, net profit to mother of 1.43 billion, +5.2% YoY, minus 1.41 billion in non-net profit, and +5.3% YoY. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 5.55 billion, +3% year-on-year, net profit of 0.49 billion yuan, +2.2% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.48 billion yuan, or +1.1% year-on-year.
Management analysis
The company's Q3 revenue grew steadily, and the growth rate of overseas business slowed under a high base. Looking at the domestic sales business, overall demand in the domestic small home appliance market is still weak. According to Aowei Cloud Network, the domestic retail sales volume of small household appliances was -4% year-on-year, but with the gradual implementation of the trade-in policy, there has been an improvement trend since September. Online retail sales of small household appliances were +6.5% year-on-year in September, and the company's domestic business revenue has maintained a steady trend; in the export business, demand in the European and American markets has gradually rebounded since the end of '23. The inventory replenishment cycle is already in the middle to late stages. Under high base pressure, the company's overseas revenue growth rate is expected to slow down. SEB Group Associations The transaction amount, according to the October 24 announcement, is estimated to be 6.2/6.95 billion yuan in early/6.95 billion yuan, adding about 0.75 billion yuan. As of the disclosure date, the related transaction amount has been completed at 0.58 billion yuan.
The company actively controls expenses, and the overall performance side is stable. Under the influence of the fierce market competition environment and the increase in the share of export business, the company's cost and expense control level is good. In 24Q3, the company's gross margin was 24.6%, -0.8 pct year-on-year. In terms of cost ratio, the company has gradually reduced the sales expense ratio over the past 24 years. Q1-Q3 was reduced from 10.9% to 9.5%, and the sales, management, R&D and finance expenses ratio of Q3 was 9.5%/1.8%/2.2%/0.2%, respectively, and -1 pct/-0.1 pct/+0.2 pct, respectively. In terms of profit, benefiting from active fee control, an increase in current government subsidies, and a reduction in credit impairment losses (+0.005 billion yuan), the 24Q3 company's net interest rate to mother was 8.9%, -0.1 pct year on year.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's revenue and profit maintained steady growth in the third quarter, and the effects of the domestic subsidy policy are expected to continue to be released. Considering that the company is a leading brand of small domestic kitchen appliances, has strong competitive advantages in products and brands, and a good level of cost control in the industry, revenue and performance are expected to recover steadily throughout the year. We expect the company's 2022/2023/2024 EPS to be 2.9/3.0/3.3 yuan, and the current stock price is 19.1/18.0/16.6 times the PE valuation, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
RMB exchange rate fluctuates; market competition intensifies; domestic and foreign market demand falls short of expectations.
