2024Q1-Q3 公司营收同比增速较2024H1 小幅-0.74pct，主要系公司其他非息收入增速有所回落。其他非息净收入同比+40.26%，增速较2024H1 -12.67pct。此外，2024Q1-Q3 公司实现投资收益13.39 亿元，同比+92.54%，我们预计主要系公司兑现了部分交易性金融资产的浮盈。2024Q1-Q3 公司归母净利润增速较2024H1 边际下降1.41pct，主要系生息资产规模扩张放缓。从业绩归因来看，2024Q1-Q3 生息资产规模、净息差、其他非息收入、拨备对净利润的贡献度分别为+13.06%、-6.90%、+4.44%、-1.43%，较2024H1 分别-2.78pct、+2.83pct、-1.02pct、+2.58pct。Key points of investment
Changshu Bank released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 8.37 billion yuan, +11.30% over the same period last year. Achieved net profit of 2.976 billion yuan to mother, 18.17% YoY.
Results maintained double-digit growth and strong return on investment
The year-on-year revenue growth rate of the 2024Q1-Q3 company was slightly -0.74pct compared to 2024H1, mainly due to a decline in the growth rate of the company's other non-interest income. Other non-interest net income was +40.26% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -12.67pct compared to 2024H1. In addition, 2024Q1-Q3 achieved investment income of 1.339 billion yuan, +92.54% over the same period. We expect that the company mainly realized the surplus on some transactional financial assets. The net profit growth rate of the 2024Q1-Q3 company decreased marginally by 1.41 pct compared to the 2024H1 margin, mainly due to a slowdown in the expansion of interest-bearing assets. In terms of performance attribution, the contribution of 2024Q1-Q3 interest-bearing assets, net interest spreads, other non-interest income, and provisions to net profit was +13.06%, -6.90%, +4.44%, and -1.43%, respectively, compared to 2024H1, -2.78pct, +2.08pct, -1.02pct, and +2.58pct, respectively.
Net interest spreads are resilient, and the credit structure still needs to be improved
2024Q1-Q3 Changshu Bank achieved net interest income of 6.903 billion yuan, +6.15% year over year. Compared with 2024H1+0.05pct, the interest spread business still performed well. In terms of credit investment, as of the end of 2024Q3, Changshu Bank's loan balance was 239.686 billion yuan, +9.69% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -1.61 pct higher than 2024H1. The decline in loan growth is mainly due to the fact that demand for financing is still weak. 2024Q3 Changshu Bank added net loans of 0.751 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 3.089 billion yuan. Among them, there was a net decrease of 1.614 billion yuan in retail loans. We expect this is mainly due to factors such as weak demand for small and micro financing combined with early loan repayment in the current environment. In terms of net interest spreads, Changshu Bank's net interest spread for the first three quarters was 2.75%. Compared with 2024H1 -4BP, net interest spreads are expected to still rank first among listed banks and show strong resilience. Looking ahead, net interest spreads may still be under pressure due to LPR cuts and stock mortgage interest rate adjustments.
The attention rate has increased slightly, and asset quality is expected to remain stable under policy guidance until the end of 2024Q3. The company's non-performing rate and concern rate were 0.77% and 1.52% respectively, compared to +1BP and +16BP at the end of 2024H1, respectively. The attention rate has further increased. We expect that the solvency of some micro, medium and small customers will weaken mainly in the current environment. Looking ahead, at the end of September, the China Financial Supervisory Authority indicated that financial institutions can independently downgrade risk classification and expand loan renewal targets to medium-sized enterprises due to loan renewals, and the quality of assets is expected to remain stable in the future. In terms of provision, the company's provision coverage rate at the end of 2024Q3 was 528.40%, and the company's risk compensation capacity is still quite sufficient.
Investment advice: maintaining Changshu Bank's “buy” rating
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 10.9/12/13.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.74%/+9.86%/+11.90%, and 3-year CAGR of 10.83%; net profit to mother of 3.9/4.4/5.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +18.33%/+14.51%/+16.17%, respectively, and 3-year CAGR of 16.33%. Considering that the company is a small leader and has significant asset-side advantages, we maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Steady growth falls short of expectations, deteriorating asset quality, and regulatory policy shifts.
