业绩延续承压，关注四季度消费补贴效果。前三季度公司收入同比下滑8.5%、归母净利润同比下滑88.9%，主要受下游地产羸弱、居民消费预期减弱的影响，同时卫浴行业价格竞争激烈、导致毛利率同比减少3pct。由于收入下滑，叠加折旧摊销增加，期间费率同比提升2.4pct至24.4%。但单三季度看，公司营收降幅较二季度明显收窄。7月发改委、财政部印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》的通知，8-9月多省市出台家电家居消费补贴政策，涵盖智能马桶、龙头花洒等卫浴产品，补贴比例多数在15-20%。四季度随着各地消费补贴政策持续落地，叠加“双十一”等电商购物节日来临，公司收入端有望进一步改善。Matters:
The company released the 2024 three-quarter report, achieving revenue of 4.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, and realized a net profit of 0.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.9%, after deducting non-return net profit of 1.02 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 99.6%. Among them, 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and net profit to mother of -6.01 million yuan, compared to 0.12 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Ping An's point of view:
Performance continues to be under pressure, and attention is being paid to the effects of consumer subsidies in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue fell 8.5% year on year, and net profit to mother fell 88.9% year on year. It was mainly affected by weak downstream real estate and weakening consumer consumption expectations. At the same time, price competition in the sanitary ware industry was intense, which led to a 3 pct year-on-year decrease in gross margin. Due to the decline in revenue, compounded depreciation and amortization increased, and the rate for the period increased 2.4 pct year over year to 24.4%. However, looking at the third quarter of a single year, the decline in the company's revenue was significantly narrower than in the second quarter. In July, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Strengthen Support for Large-scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade-in”. In August/September, many provinces and cities introduced household consumption subsidy policies covering bathroom products such as smart toilets and faucet showers, with the subsidy ratio mostly at 15-20%. In the fourth quarter, as consumer subsidy policies continue to be implemented in various regions and e-commerce shopping festivals such as “Double Eleven” are approaching, the company's revenue side is expected to improve further.
Net operating cash turned negative, and investment real estate increased year-on-year. The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -0.5 billion yuan, down from 0.47 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to a decrease in cash received from products sold in the current period and an increase in employee remuneration; compounded by maturity and repayment of current accounts payable, cash on hand at the end of the period decreased by 64% to 0.71 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. Investment real estate increased 89% year over year to 0.33 billion yuan at the end of the period, mainly due to new rental properties added in the current period.
Investment advice: Despite a sharp decline in performance in the first three quarters, considering the introduction of the national supplement policy, the company is expected to fully benefit, therefore maintaining the company's profit forecast. Net profit due to the 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.21 billion yuan, 0.35 billion yuan, and 0.47 billion yuan, respectively. The current market value corresponds to PE of 40.6 times, 24.2 times, and 18.1 times. From an industry perspective, the increase in demand for heavy housing is compounded by an increase in the penetration rate of smart toilets, and there is plenty of space in the bathroom industry. As a domestic sanitary ware brand leader, the company has outstanding brand channel product advantages. In particular, the development of intelligent products is good, long-term development is promising, and it maintains a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: (1) The recovery of real estate fundamentals is lower than expected: if the volume and price of the property market decline further in the future, it will affect the release of demand for housing renovation. (2) Risk of new business development falling short of expectations: Currently, the company is actively developing intelligent products such as thermostatic showers, but new business expansion faces problems such as intense competition and the time required to cultivate brand channels, resulting in a risk that business development falls short of expectations. (3) Risk of declining profit margins due to fierce price competition in the industry: Against the backdrop of weak market demand, price competition for products represented by smart toilets is fierce. If the price war escalates further, it will put pressure on the company's gross margin.
