经营性净现金流好转。公司前三季度经营性净现金流为582.51 亿元，同比变化从24H1 的-23.19%缩窄为-13.96%；Q3 单季度经营性净现金流281.13 亿元，同比恢复到基本持平。Incident: The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 290.123 billion yuan, +2.99% YoY, net profit 18.973 billion yuan, +9.59% YoY, net profit to mother 8.338 billion yuan, YoY +10.04%, gross profit margin 26.02%, YoY +0.84pct.
Q3 revenue for a single quarter was 92.782 billion yuan, +3.25% year on year, net profit of 5.223 billion yuan, +7.54% year on year, net profit to mother 2.299 billion yuan, +7.75% year on year, gross profit margin 26.02%, and +0.67pct year on year.
The growth in computing power and network security businesses is remarkable. The net increase of the company's mobile users in the first three quarters was 11.23 million to 0.345 billion, of which 5G package users reached 0.286 billion, with a penetration rate of 83%. The number of IoT connections reached 0.594 billion, a net increase of nearly 100 million. The net increase in fixed-line broadband subscribers reached 7.12 million to 0.121 billion. The computing power business grew rapidly. Unicom's cloud revenue was 43.86 billion yuan, +19.5% year over year. AIDC accelerated development through intelligent data center transformation. Data center revenue was 19.69 billion yuan, +6.8% year over year. At the same time, the company is actively building a “big safety” system from safe operation to safe service and ecological prosperity, and Internet communication security revenue has maintained a strong growth trend.
Net operating cash flow improved. The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 58.251 billion yuan, and the year-on-year change narrowed from -23.19% in 24H1 to -13.96%; the Q3 net operating cash flow for the single quarter was 28.113 billion yuan, which was basically flat year-on-year.
Costs have generally remained stable. Q3 Sales, management, finance, and R&D expenses were 9.55%, 5.65%, 0.15%, and 2.64%, respectively, -0.04pct, -0.05pct, -0.11pct, and +0.54 pct year-on-year, respectively.
Change the depreciation period for some fixed assets. On October 22, the company issued an announcement on changes in accounting estimates. The depreciation period for 4G wireless related equipment will be adjusted from 7 years to 10 years from October 1, 2024, based on the company's comprehensive assessment of network evolution, equipment updates and asset usage, and in order to more objectively and fairly reflect the fixed asset usage period and actual use of assets, after review and approval by the company's board of directors and supervisors. According to the company's estimates, this change is expected to reduce the depreciation of the company's fixed assets by 1.1-1.2 billion yuan in 2024.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company expects to achieve steady annual revenue growth and double-digit growth in total profit. Currently, the corresponding dividend ratio for H shares/A shares is 5.8%/2.5%. We expect the company's revenue for 24-26 to be 387.822 billion yuan, 403.436 billion yuan, and 418.098 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 9.042 billion yuan, 9.973 billion yuan, and 11.031 billion yuan, respectively. Referring to the world's mainstream telecom operator PB, the 2024 PB range was given 1.4-1.6 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 7.20 yuan to 8.23 yuan, and a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The progress of the Internet Digital Intelligence business fell short of expectations; the improvement in cash flow fell short of expectations.
