1、Q3 毛利率显著改善。1-3Q24 公司毛利率17.4%，同比+0.6pct，四费率11.0%，同比+1.9pct，减值0.4 亿元，同比-3.5 亿元，其他收益10.2 亿元，同比-4.9 亿元，扣非归母净利率7.3%，同比+1.3pct；单Q3 公司毛利率19.0%，环比+3.45pct，主因稼动率提升和原材料成本下降，四费率10.5%，环比+0.7pct，主因财务费率提升（主要受会对损益影响），减值环比-0.7 亿元，投资收益环比-0.8 亿元，其他收益环比-2.5 亿元，扣非归母净利率8.1%，环比+1.6pct。Brief performance review
On October 24, the company released its three-quarter report. 1-3Q24 company revenue of 34.05 billion yuan, -4.2% YoY, net profit of 3.19 billion yuan, YoY -6.9%, net profit without return to mother 2.5 billion yuan, YoY +16%; Single Q3, company revenue of 12.39 billion yuan, YoY -1.3%, +0.4% month-on-month, +0.4% month-on-month, -17.4% YoY, -1.9% month-on-month, net profit of 1 billion yuan YoY, +11.4% YoY, +25.5% month-on-month. Net profit after deducting non-return to mother exceeded expectations.
Management analysis
1. Gross margin improved significantly in Q3. 1-3Q24's gross profit margin was 17.4%, +0.6 pct year on year, 4 rate 11.0%, year on year +1.9 pct, reduced value 0.04 billion yuan, 4 billion yuan year on year, other income 1.02 billion yuan year on year, -0.49 billion yuan year on year, net profit margin 7.3% without return mother, +1.3 pct year on month; single Q3 company gross profit margin 19.0%, +3.45 pct month on month, mainly due to increased operating rate and lower raw material costs, four rate 10.5% month-on-month, month-on-month +0.7pct, mainly due to increased financial rates (mainly affected by profit and loss), impairment of -0.07 billion yuan month-on-month, investment income -0.08 billion yuan month-on-month, and other income -0.25 billion yuan month-on-month, net interest rate of 8.1% without return to mother, +1.6pct month-on-month.
2. Energy storage profit exceeded expectations: Q3 power/energy storage batteries were shipped 7.2/14.8 GWh respectively, +1%/+6% month-on-month. The power was close to break-even, and the net interest rate for energy storage was over 10%, a significant increase over H1. Mainly due to increased utilization rates and lower raw material costs, the net interest rate for consumer batteries is expected to be stable, and the profit scale increased slightly from month to month.
3. Follow-up outlook: ① Energy storage: will remain at full production and sales. The first phase of the 60 energy storage plant will be put into operation in December. It is expected that 20 GWh of production capacity will be added in 25 years (total 70 GWh), and an external factory will supplement production capacity. 628Ah batteries and Mr. Giant systems are expected to be delivered by the end of the year, and customer demand will extend from the battery cells to the DC side system; ② Power: Q4 is expected to increase power battery sales by 0.1 billion next year; ③ Consumer batteries are expected to be sold at full capacity next year in Q2-Q3., Production and sales are at full capacity. The small cylinder production capacity of the Malaysian factory is expected to gradually be put into operation in 25Q2. The tools have entered an upward cycle, and the boom is expected to remain high.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
In the context of an industry with high demand growth, the battery sector has a triple bottom cycle, valuation, and performance, and attention is being paid to leading companies reversing the market. The company's energy storage and consumer batteries have maintained full production and sales, and energy storage profits have been recovered. We expect the company's net profit to be 4.35, 5.68, and 7.29 billion yuan respectively in 24-26. The corresponding PE is 21/16/13X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage fell short of expectations, production capacity investment fell short of expectations, and battery prices fell beyond expectations.
