维持“增持”评级。公司前三季度实现收入116.32亿元，同比+1.81%，实现扣非归母净利11.56 亿元，同比-28.81%，其中24Q3 实现收入38.93 亿元，同比+8.27%，扣非归母净利润5.28 亿元，同比+49.18%，符合预期。维持公司2024-26 年EPS 为0.55/0.69/0.82 元，维持目标价12.22 元。Introduction to this report:
The company's 2024 three-quarter report was in line with expectations. After the Q2 repricing led to phased midstream replenishment, Q3 still achieved high sales growth through product differentiation and maintained its pricing power for high-end products.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 11.632 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +1.81% year over year, achieving net profit of 1.156 billion yuan without return to mother, or -28.81% year over year. Of these, 24Q3 achieved revenue of 3.893 billion yuan, +8.27% year over year, and net profit without return to mother of 0.528 billion yuan, +49.18% year over year, in line with expectations. Maintain the company's 2024-26 EPS of 0.55/0.69/0.82 yuan, and maintain the target price of 12.22 yuan.
Q3 The company's differentiated shipping capacity for thick yarn is still strong, maintaining the pricing power for high-end products. 24Q3 achieved sales volume of 0.74 million tons of thick yarn and products, +24% year over year, -11% month over month. After the concentrated release of phased midstream replenishment demand brought about by the Q2 industry reprice, Q3 was able to maintain production and sales balance, and there was a significant year-on-year increase in sales. Thanks to wind power yarn, thermoplastic shortening, and export sales growth among differentiated products, this reflects the competitiveness of high-end products and the continuous increase in global share of leading companies. Looking at profit, the Q2 glass fiber compound price extends from low-end generic products to differentiated products such as wind power and thermoplastics. Q3 mainly focuses on gradually implementing early price increases. We estimate that Q3's net profit per ton of thick yarn was around 640 yuan, an increase of about 200 yuan/ton over Q2.
Electronic cloth Q3 has a slight inventory, and Q4 mainly stabilizes prices. The 24Q3 company achieved sales of electronic cloth about 0.17 billion meters, and production and sales weakened slightly compared to the same period. We determined that the main factor was that the Q2 electronic cloth price increase took advantage of the upstream copper price increase. After the Q3 copper price fell, downstream customers of electronic cloth mainly removed inventory, and delivery slowed down. In terms of profit, according to Zhuochuang, the average price of 24Q3 electronic cloth including tax is about 4.0 yuan/meter. We estimate that the average profit of 24Q3 electronic cloth is about 0.4-0.5 yuan/meter, which is a slight increase over the previous month. Since entering Q4, the electronic cloth order cycle has been relatively stable, and since there are no new supply positions, it is expected that price stability will be the main focus in the future.
Net new supply to the industry is slowing down, and cost and product strength are the company's long-term focus. In terms of production capacity, according to Zhuochuang, the 24Q3 Jushi Huai'an 2 line ignited the 0.1 million ton, Changhai 0.15 million ton, and Xingtai Jinniu 0.15 million ton production lines were shut down and repaired. The net new production capacity is expected to gradually narrow under industry self-regulation. As the company returned to reasonable profits after the repricing was implemented, the continuous optimization of long-term cost capacity and the ability to differentiate the delivery of high-end products are still the core competitiveness of medium- to long-term companies.
Risk warning: The centralized release of new production capacity and application breakthroughs in new fields fell short of expectations.
