聚酯产业链盈利下游转移，长丝旺季不旺。根据隆众数据，在成本下行趋势下，我们测算24Q3 涤纶长丝价差为1249 元/吨，环比回升169 元/吨，PTA 价差为234 元/吨，环比提升95 元/吨，聚酯下游价差整体有所提升，但是由于三季度需求低于预期，预期聚酯端存在一定的库存贬值。展望四季度，10 月份以来长丝需求有所提升，PTA 价差也有所修复，聚酯板块盈利存在好转预期，且涤纶长丝新增产能存在后延趋势，预期供需格局逐步收紧，盈利中枢存在提升空间。Key points of investment:
Company announcement: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 177.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%; net profit to mother of 5.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%. Among them, Q3 achieved operating income of 65.26 billion yuan, an increase of 20.44% over the previous month; net profit to mother was 1.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.1% month on month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was about 1.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.1% month on month. The company's expense ratio decreased by 0.7 pct to 3.4% year on year during the 24Q3 period. Among them, financial expenses decreased by 28.2% year on year, mainly due to the company issuing short-term financing notes to optimize the financial structure, which led to an improvement in financial expenses. In addition, other earnings for the third quarter fell 20.8% year over year, which is presumed to be mainly due to changes in government subsidies received.
There was pressure on refining and chemical inventories to depreciate in the third quarter, and PX's profit declined. In terms of oil prices, the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was 78.7 US dollars/barrel, down 7% from month to month. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, there is significant pressure on inventories to depreciate. On the product side, we estimate that the price difference of the company's refining and chemical sector reached 1,629 yuan/ton in the third quarter, an increase of 62 yuan/ton, but if inventory is taken into account, we calculate that the price difference for the company's refining and chemical Q3 was 1,525 yuan/ton, down 369 yuan/ton from month to month. Among them, PX's profit declined significantly in the third quarter. According to Steel Union data, the price difference of PX-naphtha reached 270 US dollars/ton in the third quarter, down 82 US dollars/ton from the previous quarter. Mainly due to the weakening profit of refined oil products, the demand for oil blending in MX, the upstream raw material of PX declined. As a result, PX stock supply increased, and profits declined in the third quarter. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, although oil prices are expected to continue to be under downward pressure, the improvement in price spreads due to falling crude oil costs is expected to drive a recovery in refining and chemical profits.
Profits in the polyester industry chain are shifting downstream, and the peak season for filament is not strong. According to Longzhong data, under the downward cost trend, we estimate that the price difference of 24Q3 polyester filament was 1,249 yuan/ton, up 169 yuan/ton from month to month, PTA price difference of 234 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from month to month. The overall downstream price spread of polyester increased, but due to lower demand in the third quarter than expected, it is expected that there will be a certain inventory depreciation on the polyester side. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, demand for filament has increased since October, PTA price spread has also been fixed, profits in the polyester sector are expected to improve, and new polyester filament production capacity is lagging behind. It is expected that the supply and demand pattern will gradually tighten, and there is room for improvement in the profit center.
Capital expenditure has come to an end, and dividends are expected to remain at a high level. According to the company's announcement, the company's key projects will be put into operation one after another this year, including the 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project and the Kanghui New Material Diaphragm Project, which are expected to be fully put into operation in the second half of the year. 12 lines of functional polyester film and lithium battery diaphragm projects in the Nantong project are expected to be completed and put into operation in 2025H1; 5 million tons of PTA, 0.8 million tons of functional polyester film and plastic, 3 billion square meters The lithium battery separator project and the new material industrial park project have also basically entered the equipment installation or trial production stage. It is expected that as capital expenditure comes to an end, the company's dividends are expected to remain at a high level.
Investment analysis: Considering falling oil prices and easing PX supply, we lowered our 2024-2026 profit forecast to 7.03, 9.71, and 11.79 billion (originally 8.05, 10.49, 12.44 billion), corresponding PE is 14X, 10X, and 9X, respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the company's performance improvement and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Oil prices fluctuated greatly, the recovery in refining and chemical demand fell short of expectations, the commissioning of projects under construction fell short of expectations, and progress in cooperation with Saudi Aramco did not meet expectations, etc.
