大摩Laura Wang等分析师表示，市场情绪在央行正式推出两项市场稳定计划后有所改善，但大摩认为现有的市场估值已经包含了相当大的乐观情绪，预计市场将在短期内区间波动，且波动性较高。短期内，大摩建议关注股息收益率高的股票和盈利确定性较好的公司。The Morgan Stanley MSASI index, which measures A-share investor sentiment, rose by 23 percentage points to 105% on October 16. Morgan Stanley believes that the current market valuation already includes a significant amount of optimism, expecting high volatility in the short term, and recommends focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and companies with good earnings visibility.
With the implementation of the central bank's convenient swap and share buyback refinancing measures, the A-share market sentiment further warmed up.
On October 24, Morgan Stanley released a report stating that the weighted and simple MSASI indicators measuring A-share investor sentiment rose by 23 and 20 percentage points respectively from October 16 to 105% and 96%.
Analysts such as Laura Wang from Morgan Stanley mentioned that the market sentiment improved after the central bank officially launched two market stabilization plans. However, Morgan Stanley believes that the current market valuation already includes a considerable amount of optimism, expecting the market to fluctuate within a range in the short term with high volatility. In the short term, Morgan Stanley recommends focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and companies with good earnings visibility.
Morgan Stanley also suggests paying attention to domestic policies, the real estate market, corporate profits, and overseas macroeconomic factors in the future:
1) The release of detailed fiscal stimulus measures;
2) The speed of absorbing excess housing inventory and inventory trends;
The upcoming third quarter earnings season for the company's dividends/buybacks.
Global geopolitical developments, Fed rate cuts, strengthening of the US dollar, and external factors such as the US elections.
The MSASI index launched by Morgan Stanley in March 2019 aims to measure the sentiment levels in the A-share market through direct quantitative data, including margin financing balance, new registered investors, A-share trading volume, gem trading volume, northbound trading volume growth rate, equity index trading volume growth rate, based on the 30-day csi 300 index range, the number of limit-up A-shares, and the range of profit forecast revisions.Relative Strength IndexOther data shows that the average daily turnover of the gem, A-shares, and northbound funds increased by 25%, 15%, and 2% respectively, while the turnover of equity index futures decreased by 10%.
Other data shows that the average daily turnover of the gem, A shares, and northbound funds increased by 25%, 15%, and 2% respectively, while the turnover of equity index futures decreased by 10%.
30-day relative strength index(RSI-30D) increased by 5 percentage points compared to October 16.
Consensus earnings forecast revision width resumed its accelerated decline, returning to the level of early May.
