Source: Brokerage China Author: Qu Hongyan Recently, China Yangtze Power hit a historical high and once again showed the slow bull stock trend of "tripling in ten years". The slow bull market has left behind many passers-by and brought good returns to the steadfast investors. It is "rare for those who triple in one year to be like carp jumping over the dragon gate, while those who double in three years are few and far between." On the other end of the investment world, however, violent collapses are also deafening, with many financial products suspected of "Ponzi schemes" ceasing payments, leaving investors with no hope of recovering their investments. Both positive and negative cases illustrate the importance of forming a suitable mentality towards money in one's lifetime; otherwise, sooner or later, you will divorce yourself from your money. "I call this the money mind, a person's IQ can reach 120, 140, or even higher levels, and perhaps some people's minds are good at doing one thing, while others are good at doing another. They can do things that most ordinary people can't do. But I know some very smart people who make very foolish decisions because they lack the money mind." Buffett once said so. The so-called money mind refers to believing in common sense, believing in compound interest, being cautious and rational, thinking independently, prioritizing security over return, not dealing with people with questionable character, not easily guaranteeing for others, not believing in windfall profits, and not trying to cross legal norms for extra benefits. In today's world of ubiquitous information, everyone's wealth may become the "prey" of those with ulterior motives. Only with the money mind, can one form good behavior habits and shield oneself from separating from one's wealth. Do not entrust your wealth easily. Wealth is easy to lose but hard to accumulate, and trust is a vital reason leading to the rapid loss of wealth. "Do not allow anyone else to manage your business unless you can watch their every move closely and understand their behavior; or you have strong reasons to believe in their character and ability. For investors, this criterion determines when you can let someone else make investment decisions for you." Graham's criterion written eighty years ago is so clear. Almost all the investors who lost their wealth in the financial products have violated the above two criteria. They did not have the ability to closely supervise the whereabouts of their funds, nor did they have sufficient reasons to believe in the character of the product issuers. They easily invested their own wealth solely based on others' glib tongue and a piece of commitment paper. They did not act as gatekeepers of their own wealth and ended up with nothing left even if the government punished the wrongdoers. "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." This is a phrase Munger often says. Destiny must be in one's own hands, and investors with a suitable money mind will try their best to find suspicious points in their investments to protect the safety of their principal. For example, whether the manager is trustworthy, whether the underlying assets are profitable, whether oneself can timely monitor the risks in the investment process, and whether the sales staff is obtaining large commissions. As long as any unreliable signs are found, these investors firmly will not invest their money. Do not desire to get rich quick. As in the capital market and anywhere else, making money is not easy, and desiring to get rich quick will lead to quick loss of wealth. In the capital market, the desire to get rich quickly often leads to investors over-allocating specific stocks, industries, or assets at the worst time. For example, buying high-risk stocks that can gain huge returns once an adventure succeeds, but the chance of success is very small, also known as "whispering stocks" by legendary fund manager Peter Lynch. "They often tell investors a story with explosive effects. These 'whispering stocks' have a hypnotic effect on people, and it is easy for you to believe that the story the company tells has an emotional appeal that can easily confuse you." This is like hearing a very tempting "sizzling" sound, making you salivate, but you did not notice that there is no steak on the grill. In the eyes of investors who lack the money mind, stable yield provided by blue chips such as China Yangtze Power cannot meet their demands. However, historical experience clearly shows that buying stocks lacking in safety solely based on imagined high yields is unwise. The long-term average investment return of general stocks is 9%-10%, which is also the average investment return of stock indexes in history, a benchmark to measure one's investment performance and the benchmark to measure fund investment performance.

According to the latest news, 23 scholars who have won the Nobel Prize in Economics issued a joint statement on October 23rd in the usa, supporting the Democratic presidential candidate Harris, and criticizing her Republican rival Trump's economic plan, especially his proposal to impose tariffs.

However, it should be pointed out that since October, Trump's approval rating has been on the rise. Polling data shows that the gap in support between Trump and Harris is narrowing. In the five key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, Harris and Trump are essentially neck and neck. The final voting results in these battleground states may determine the success or failure of the two.

It is worth noting that Boivin, Managing Director of the Research Department of Blackrock, the world's largest asset management institution, stated that the market is underestimating the risk of one of the U.S. presidential candidates questioning the outcome of next month's election, which could lead to 'weeks of legal disputes' and subsequently impact the financial markets.

Let's take a look at the detailed report!

23 Nobel laureates in economics jointly support Harris.

According to a report from Agence France-Presse quoted by Reference News, 23 scholars who have won the Nobel Prize in Economics published a letter on October 23, U.S. time, expressing their support for the Democratic presidential candidate Harris and criticizing her Republican opponent Trump's economic plan, especially his proposals regarding imposing tariffs.

These economists stated: 'We believe that Harris would manage our economy better than Trump, and we support her bid for president.' These Nobel laureates in economics, supporting Harris, were seven more than the signatories of a letter calling for voting for President Biden's re-election in June.

Among them are the latest winners DeLong Ajimolu, Simon Johnson (2024), as well as Robert Merton (1997), Joseph Stiglitz (2001), and George Akerlof (2001), etc.

In the 2016 and 2020 elections, many economists, including Nobel laureates, jointly wrote letters urging voters not to vote for Trump, citing his economic plans as one of the reasons.

This time, these renowned experts acknowledge that Harris and Trump's economic plans are not "completely" known to the public, but they state that the remarks and "past actions" of the two are sufficient to illustrate the issue.

However, a recent monthly poll by the Financial Times in the United Kingdom showed that Trump overtook Harris in economic issue polling, becoming the candidate in whom Americans trust economically. This reflects that voters do not believe that the Democratic Party has brought them a better life than four years ago. Now they choose to believe that if the Republican Party wins, their lives will be better.

The latest monthly survey jointly conducted by the Financial Times and the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan (FT-Michigan Ross) found that on economic issues, 44% of registered voters say they trust Trump more to handle such issues, compared to 43% who support Harris. This is the first time Trump has taken the lead over Harris on this issue in the FT-Michigan Ross opinion poll.

Historical data also shows that Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate this summer, briefly surpassed Trump in economic terms, but that advantage has now disappeared.

Polls also found that Trump has a greater lead when it comes to which candidate will improve their economic situation. 45% chose the former Republican president, an increase of 5 percentage points from last month, while only 37% support Democratic Vice President Harris.

This result indicates that in the final stages of the increasingly intense competition with Trump, Harris's economic campaign has lost momentum. Ross School of Business Professor Erik Gordon said, 'If Harris wants to win the election, she must win on other issues.'

Blackrock issued a warning

Recently, Blackrock, the world's largest asset management company with total assets of up to $11.48 trillion, warned that the market underestimates the risks of one of the U.S. presidential candidates questioning the election results next month.

Jean Boivin, Managing Director of the Research Department of Blackrock, said that a controversial victory could lead to "several weeks of very chaotic legal battles," which could impact the financial markets. U.S. Treasury bonds have already experienced selling, with benchmark yields rising more than 40 basis points this month, while the stock market remains near record highs.

Jean Boivin stated, "Attempting to trade the U.S. election is futile, what is most concerning is the scenario where the election results are called into question. I do not believe this has been fully priced in by the market. If one wants to be prepared for certain scenarios, then this is a scenario that requires a response. And I think this is one of the scenarios that could be unfavorable for the market."

As the election results seem too close to call, the likelihood of voters and investors having to wait until after the election night to know the outcome is increasing, especially if either of the candidates questions the vote count in a key swing state.

Bloomberg reported that in recent days, the betting markets are increasingly leaning towards a Trump victory. The growing prospect of this outcome has pushed the dollar exchange rate to a three-month high and is poised to be the best month since 2022. Standard Chartered Bank calculated that about 60% of this move can be attributed to Trump's prospects.

Steven Englander, Global G-10 Foreign Exchange Research Director at Standard Chartered, stated, "We suspect that the asset markets are pricing in a Trump victory probability close to 70%," he wrote in a report: "For a Trump win to have a more significant impact on asset market prices, the Republicans must also win both houses of Congress simultaneously." Considering the sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets and the market's expectations of a Trump victory, in the event of his victory with a split Congress, profit taking may occur. Englander also pointed out that the impact of a Trump win is greater on the currency market than the bond market, with this month's bond market being more influenced by U.S. employment reports.

Barclays: European stock markets have already priced in a Trump victory.

Currently, less than two weeks away from the US presidential election, Barclays Bank stated that the European stock market has already reflected the possibility of Trump winning. The company mentioned that since early spring this year, European exporters - those companies most susceptible to tariff impacts - have underperformed the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%.

Barclays Bank stated that this reflects investors preparing in advance for Trump's proposed tariff policies, which have been a core part of his presidential campaign, with investors expecting him to win.

On Wednesday local time, analysts led by Emmanuel Cau at Barclays wrote: Tariff concerns have weighed on the EU stock market's relative performance so far this year. If a full-blown trade war erupts, we might see EPS growth impacted by up to double digits, with Germany, Italy, and the capital goods, autos, beverages, technology, and chemical industries facing the greatest risks.

The US will also be affected. Barclays Bank expects Trump's tariffs to drag down S&P 500 EPS by 3.2% next year, with the most negative impact on the materials, consumer discretionary, industrial, technology, and healthcare sectors. In addition, retaliatory measures will also result in an additional 1.5% hit to the future EPS of the S&P 500.

The report also points out that if Harris wins, the European markets may see a rebound. Her policies will also promote the development of clean energy and wind power in the region, areas that have underperformed due to the possibility of Trump winning.

Editor / jayden