同比高基数下经营表现相对稳健。根据我们对宋城演艺官方小程序数据统计，Q3 主要重资产千古情项目日均演出场次，杭州4.8场/-23%、三亚2.5 场/-4%、丽江4.4 场/-9%、桂林4.3 场/-2%、张家界1.4 场/-31%、九寨沟2.4 场/-6%、西安7.4 场/+67%、上海2.5 场/-16%，23 年暑期国内游高基数情况下各个项目演出场次存在不同程度下滑，除23 年爆发式恢复下基数较高以外还受出境游、国内其他目的地旅游分流及部分景区极端天气影响，其中西安受益2 号剧院新开放及所在地旅游热度高，桂林、三亚、九寨沟等下滑幅度相对小；新重资产项目佛山千古情日均演出场次约3.7场、维持高水平，Q3 新开业的轻资产三峡项目前期爬坡较快。occurrences
On October 24, 2024, the company disclosed the 2024 three-quarter report. Q1-3 achieved revenue of 2.013 billion yuan/+ 24.46%, net profit due to mother 1.008 billion yuan/ +28.04%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.994 billion yuan/ +28.05%. 3Q23 achieved revenue of 0.836 billion yuan/ -4.69%, net profit due to mother 0.457 billion yuan/ -5.54%, after deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.446 billion yuan/ -7.10%.
reviews
Operating performance was relatively steady under a high year-on-year base. According to our statistics on the official Songcheng Performing Arts Mini Program, the average number of shows per day for Q3's major assets, Hangzhou 4.8/ -23%, Sanya 2.5/ -4%, Lijiang 4.4/ -9%, Guilin 4.4/ -2%, Zhangjiajie 1.4/-31%, Jiuzhaigou 2.4/-6%, Xi'an 7.4/+67%, Shanghai 2.5/ -16%. In addition to the high summer domestic travel base in '23, the number of shows in various projects declined to varying degrees. Affected by outbound travel, the diversion of tourism from other domestic destinations, and extreme weather in some scenic spots, Xi'an benefited from the opening of the No. 2 Theatre and the popularity of tourism in the area. Guilin, Sanya, and Jiuzhaigou, etc., saw a relatively small decline; the new heavy asset project Foshan Qianguqing performed an average of 3.7 shows per day, maintaining a high level. The newly opened Three Gorges Project, which was newly opened in Q3, climbed rapidly.
Profitability declined in the face of declining revenues. In terms of gross margin, the company's 3Q24 gross profit margin was 75.6% /-2.1pct; in terms of expenses, the 3Q24 sales/management expenses ratio was 5.4%/5.0%, respectively, +0.6/+0.8pct. Among them, the increase in sales expenses was mainly due to increased advertising in various scenic spots, and the increase in management expenses was mainly due to increased equity incentive amortization fees; in terms of profitability, 3Q24 deducted a net profit margin of 53.4% /-1.4pct. The decline in performance was slightly larger than the decline in revenue, mainly due to the greater operating leverage of the asset-heavy model.
The National Day data performance is quite impressive, and we are looking forward to Q4 performance. According to data from the official public account of Songcheng Performing Arts, the 13 scenic spots under the National Day in 2024 received 2.6 million visitors/ +59.7%. According to our statistics on the official Songcheng Performing Arts Mini Program, the average number of daily performances in all parks on the 7th of the National Day was about 65, +54% compared to the National Day holiday in '23, +69% compared to the National Day average in '19, and the Hangzhou, Guilin, Xi'an, Foshan, and Three Gorges projects performed more than 5 shows per day, leading the performance; the average number of daily shows for the four major asset projects was +19%, recovering to 93% in 2019, +14pct compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival, of which 83%, compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival, 67% in Lijiang 7%/Guilin 137%.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company has deep barriers in its performing arts business. New projects such as Foshan and the Three Gorges in Guangdong have performed brilliantly and continue to verify offsite replication capabilities. We look forward to a recovery in consumer demand and a decline in the performance of various projects after the intensive cultivation and upgrading of the company's products. The company's 24E-26E net profit is expected to be 1.08/1.25/1.44 billion yuan, corresponding to 24E-26E PE of 25/21/18X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Outbound travel and tourism to other destinations are being diverted, and the climbing speed of the training program is lower than expected.
