维持增持。公 司前三季度营收10.79亿元/-6.81%，归母净利5.46亿元/-11.4%，扣非5.4 亿元/-10%；Q3 单季度营收3.46 亿元/-10.1%，归母净利2.06 亿元/+10%，扣非1.63 亿元/-1.59%。考虑到新项目处于前期培育期，下调预测2024-26 年EPS 至1.02/1.11/1.27 元(原1.1/1.18/1.29 元)增速-6/9/15%；维持目标价14.96 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
The company may benefit from the recent implementation of a number of real estate policies in Chengdu; moreover, new projects can increase revenue and profits, and are optimistic about long-term positive development.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 1.079 billion yuan/ -6.81%, net profit to mother 0.546 billion yuan/ -11.4%, less 0.54 billion yuan/ -10%; Q3 single quarter revenue 0.346 billion yuan/ -10.1%, net profit to mother 0.206 billion yuan/ +10%, net profit to mother of 0.206 billion yuan/ +10%, less 0.163 billion yuan/ -1.59%. Considering that the new project is in the early stages of development, the forecast for 2024-26 EPS will be reduced to 1.02/1.11/1.27 yuan (originally 1.1/1.18/1.29 yuan) growth rate of -6/9/ 15%; the target price will be maintained at 14.96 yuan to maintain growth.
Profitability is affected by factors such as depreciation, and operating cash flow is still impressive. 1) Q1-3 revenue growth rates in a single quarter were -2.46/ -7.95/ -10.1%, respectively, and -16.5/-25.4/ +10%, after deducting non-growth rates of -8.53/-17.8/ -1.59%, respectively; 2) gross profit margin of 68.1% /-2pct for the first three quarters, net profit margin 51.9% /-3.1 pct, net profit margin 50.1%, -1.8pct; we think it was mainly due to the increase in fixed depreciation and amortization of the Tianfu project, and the year-on-year decrease in investment return; 3) Expense rate 4.-5.7% for the period pct, Among them, the sales/management/finance expense ratios were 0.34/4.42/ -0.05%, respectively, -0.4/-0.42/+0.02pct; 4) Operating cash flow was 0.883 billion yuan/ +19.8%.
The company hopes to benefit from the recovery of real estate in Chengdu and expects the Tianfu project to increase revenue and profits. 1) Since the end of September, the Chengdu property market has been picking up; on October 15, various departments in Chengdu jointly issued four new real estate policies aimed at promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market; and considering that Chengdu has good consumption vitality and population base, the business is expected to rise steadily; 2) The business format of the Tianfu Live Streaming Port Project covers brand live streaming, paid live game streaming, lifestyle live streaming, etc., and is currently making every effort to form a new industrial pattern driven by the live streaming digital economy. Project investment and industry introduction work.
We expect the high dividend policy to continue, and the current valuation is still undervalued. 1) The average dividend for the year 2021-23 was 0.808 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of over 100%; 2024H1 dividend of 0.299 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of about 88%; we judge that the higher dividend policy may continue in the future; 2) Considering the high revaluation value of the company's property assets (the self-operated store has a construction area of more than 1.1 million square meters and is located in the core area), currently only 12 times PE is still undervalued.
Risk warning: New project investment falls short of expectations, old market leases fall short of expectations, dividends fall short of expectations, external environment puts pressure on demand for home building materials, etc.
