下游智能化持续渗透打开成长空间，关注公司生态建设据Statista 预计，2024 年全球智能家居市场收入有望达1544 亿美元，未来5 年年复合增长率有望达11%；公司注重生态建设，在GitHub 上ESP32、ESP8266项目数量总计12.28 万，在reddit 上Reddit ESP32 小组会员数量达9.5 万，公司开源SDK 和社区支持吸引了大量开发者，促成丰富的第三方库和应用诞生，同时，公司全球开发者群体大多来自商业公司，推动了乐鑫产品在各行各业中的应用与推广，为公司带来源源不断的商业机会，我们认为，随着下游智能化持续渗透，公司持续建设物联网技术生态，以技术齿轮推动生态齿轮，生态齿轮进一步推动市场齿轮，将为公司带来充足成长性。2024Q1-3's performance was high, and the number of new products introduced increased performance, maintaining the “buy” rating of 2024Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 1.46 billion yuan, +42.17% year over year; achieved net profit due to mother 0.251 billion yuan, +188.08% year over year; achieved net profit deducted from non-mother 0.231 billion yuan, +237.99% year on year; achieved gross profit margin of 42.81%, +2.05pcts year on year; 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 0.54 in a single quarter billion yuan, +49.96% YoY, +1.27% month-on-month; realized net profit attributable to mother 0.099 billion yuan, +340.17% YoY, +1.79% month-on-month; realized net profit withheld from mother 0.085 billion yuan, +492.15% YoY, -12.78% month-on-month; realized gross profit margin of 42.14%, +1.56pcts YoY, -1.97pcts month-on-month. The company's product volume pace is in line with expectations. We maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 0.337/0.456/0.609 billion yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to PE of 44.1/32.5/24.4 times.
We are optimistic that the continued construction of the company's ecosystem will promote sufficient growth brought about by product volume, and maintain a “buy” rating.
The gradual penetration of downstream IoT drives revenue growth. The steady increase in gross margin is benefiting from the increase in IoT penetration in various downstream industries. By product, the 2024Q1-3 chip achieved revenue of 0.562 billion yuan (accounting for 38.50% revenue), +52% YoY, gross profit margin 50.10%, +3.3 pcts year on year; the module achieved revenue of 0.886 billion yuan (revenue share 60.70%), YoY +37%, gross profit margin 38.00% Compared to +0.9 pcts; at the same time, due to stable cost-side+chip pricing strategies, the company's gross margin was stable; the year-on-year growth rate of R&D expenses was around 19%, and performance was high.
The continuous penetration of downstream intelligence opens up room for growth, focusing on the company's ecological construction. According to Statista estimates, the global smart home market revenue is expected to reach 154.4 billion US dollars in 2024, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 11% in the next 5 years; the company focuses on ecological construction. The total number of ESP32 and ESP8266 projects on GitHub is 0.1228 million, and the number of Reddit ESP32 team members on Reddit is 0.095 million. The company is open source SDK and community support have attracted a large number of developers and contributed to the birth of rich third-party libraries and applications. At the same time, most of the company's global developer groups come from commercial companies, promoting the application and promotion of Lexin products in various industries, bringing the company a steady stream of business opportunities. We believe that as downstream intelligence continues to penetrate, the company will continue to build an IoT technology ecosystem to drive ecological gears with technological gears. Ecological gears will further promote market gears, which will bring sufficient growth to the company.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; customer introduction falls short of expectations; technology research and development falls short of expectations.
