公司整体业绩表现优异，单季度环比下降主要受EPC 影响。受益于矿山机械行业高景气度，同时公司积极加大海外市场布局，公司前三季度营收、利润均实现高增长。3Q24 公司收入、利润环比出现下降，我们认为主要由于公司在上半年已经完成了目前在手的EPC 项目收入确认，1H24 公司EPC 业务实现收入2 亿元，而3Q24没有新增EPC 收入。同时3Q24 公司发生汇兑损失946.97 万元，对当期利润也造成一定影响。Brief performance review
On October 24, 2024, the company released its three-quarter report. 1Q-3Q24 achieved operating income of 0.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.71%, and realized net profit to mother of 0.12 billion yuan, an increase of 48.78% over the previous year. Among them, 3Q24 achieved operating income of 0.294 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% and a decrease of 22.19% month-on-month; realized net profit to mother of 0.036 billion yuan, an increase of 30.43% year-on-year and a decrease of 20.18% month-on-month.
Management analysis
The company's overall performance was excellent, and the month-on-month decline in a single quarter was mainly affected by EPC. Benefiting from the boom in the mining machinery industry, the company actively increased its overseas market layout, and achieved high revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters. 3Q24's revenue and profit declined month-on-month. We believe that it was mainly because the company completed revenue recognition for the EPC project currently under way in the first half of the year, 1H24's EPC business achieved revenue of 0.2 billion yuan, while 3Q24 did not add additional EPC revenue. At the same time, 3Q24 suffered an exchange loss of 9.4697 million yuan, which also had a certain impact on current profit.
The core rubber wear-resistant spare parts business continues to grow at a high rate, and increased profitability helps release profits.
1Q-3Q24's rubber wear-resistant spare parts business revenue was 0.51 billion yuan, up 34.88% year on year, and gross margin increased 2.43 pcts year on year to 43.98%. The core rubber wear-resistant spare parts business has achieved high growth and increased gross margin, which is expected to continue to drive the company's profit release in the future.
Overseas revenue is growing rapidly, the base in Zambia has already been put into operation, and overseas travel is expected to accelerate further.
1Q-3Q24 achieved overseas revenue of 0.63 billion yuan, an increase of 99.55% over the previous year. The development of overseas markets enabled the company to achieve excellent performance this year. At the same time, overseas profitability was stronger than domestic. The gross margin of 1Q-3Q24 was 39.98%, higher than the domestic gross margin of 8.27 pcts. The company's profitability is also expected to increase in the future as the share of overseas revenue increases. At present, the company's base in Zambia was completed in October, and it is expected that further in-depth cooperation will be carried out with local mineral processing plants to accelerate the pace of the company's global market development.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.155/0.221/0.296 billion yuan from 24 to 26, corresponding to the current PE29X/20X/15X. Considering that the company's rubber wear-resistant spare parts business has good growth prospects and strong profitability, the company's performance is expected to achieve high growth and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The increase in the penetration rate of new materials fell short of expectations, downstream capital expenditure fell short of expectations, overseas expansion of Chinese mining companies fell short of expectations, and the balance of convertible bonds was large.
