投资建议：Q 3 流水仍受宏观影响，Q4 表现值得期待；中长期看好公司凭借品牌力积淀/产品创新/精细化运营抢占市场份额，同时海外业务在合资公司助力下成长可期。我们维持2024-2026 年公司归母净利预测为32.0/36.2/38.8 亿元，对应PE 分别为12/11/10 倍，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The Q3 turnover was in line with expectations, the discounted inventory was still healthy, the National Day sales performance was impressive, and it is worth looking forward to under the low Q4 base.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Q3 flows are still affected at the macro level, and Q4 performance is worth looking forward to; in the medium to long term, the company is optimistic that the company will seize market share through brand buildup, product innovation/refined operation, and overseas business can be expected to grow with the help of joint ventures. We maintain the 2024-2026 net profit forecast of the company at 3.2/3.62/3.88 billion yuan, corresponding PE of 12/11/10 times, respectively, and maintain the “increase” rating.
Q3 The turnover was in line with expectations, and the discounted inventory was still healthy. Q3 The number of units in the company's omni-channel traffic declined year-on-year, the number of units in offline sales declined higher year-on-year (of which the number of units in direct management declined year-on-year, and the number of units in wholesale fell higher year-on-year), and the number of units in the online year-on-year increase. Terminal discounts have deepened, and the number of offline units has deepened year over year. Among them, wholesale deepened more than direct management, mainly due to a lower base; e-commerce improved year over year. By the end of September, the company's inventory sales ratio was about 5 months, which deepened from month to month, but the storage age structure remained healthy.
The National Day streaming performance was outstanding, and it is worth looking forward to under the low Q4 base. The company's online and offline sales improved month-on-month during the National Day. The trend was consistent with the industry. The Double Eleven pre-sale performance was in line with internal expectations, and the turnover growth rate has been positive since October. In terms of discounts, due to the macroeconomic environment and industry competition, offline pressure continues, and e-commerce has deepened slightly. Considering the low turnover base in November and December, we are optimistic about the significant month-on-month improvement in Q4 company turnover and the achievement of the annual guidelines. For the full year 2024, we maintain our expectations of low unit revenue growth and low double-digit profit margins.
A joint venture was established with Sequoia, and overseas business can be expected in the future. LN Co (an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the company) established a joint venture with Founder Co, HongShan Venture, and HongShan Motivation to exclusively develop and operate the Li Ning brand business outside mainland China. The listed company and Mr. Li Ning hold a total of 55% of the shares, with an investment amount of approximately HK$58 million.
We believe that Sequoia has rich multinational resources and experience, and is expected to empower the company's overseas business in terms of talent, digitalization and other resources, and accelerate the process of brand internationalization. At the same time, the company's listed company has the right to take back part of the shares and increase control over the joint venture after 4 years; it has the right to take back all of the shares in the joint venture after 8 years. The current high shareholding ratio and future share options effectively guarantee their control over overseas business.
Risk warning: terminal consumption falls short of expectations, industry competition exceeds expectations, etc.