费用增长利润短期承压，Q3 单季度盈利能力企稳回升：2024 年前三季度，公司积极拓展市场及客户，营业收入稳健增长。由于电力电子装置温控产品行业竞争加剧，在产品价格下行的压力下，盈利承压毛利率下滑。前三季度公司实现毛利率21.51%，但Q3 单季度实现毛利率22.39%，环比已有所改善。此外公司积极拓展市场与业务、实施第二期股权激励计划导致股权激励费用增加，导致费用端有所增长。前三季度公司实现净利率5.09%，同比下滑5.53pct。Incident review
On October 24, 2024, the company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.374 billion yuan, an increase of 3.55% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 0.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.37%. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 0.574 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.61%; realized net profit to mother of 0.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.16%.
Management analysis
Expense growth puts pressure on profits in the short term, and profitability rebounded steadily in Q3: In the first three quarters of 2024, the company actively expanded its market and customers, and revenue grew steadily. Due to increased competition in the temperature control products industry for power electronic devices, profit pressure and gross margin declined under downward pressure on product prices. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 21.51% in the first three quarters, but achieved a gross profit margin of 22.39% in a single quarter in Q3, an improvement over the previous quarter. Furthermore, the company is actively expanding its market and business, and implementing the second phase of the equity incentive plan has led to an increase in equity incentive expenses, which has led to an increase on the cost side. The company achieved a net profit margin of 5.09% in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 5.53pct.
However, in Q3, the company achieved a net profit margin of 8.34% in a single quarter, which has improved significantly from month to month.
Energy storage temperature control continues to grow rapidly: In the field of energy storage, the company successfully launched a series of overall energy storage temperature control solutions, covering centralized energy storage temperature control, industrial and commercial energy storage temperature control, PCS system temperature control, and high-voltage cascaded direct energy storage temperature control solutions. The company's temperature control products can operate stably in extreme environments such as high altitude, high salt spray, high temperature and high humidity, and the products have excellent performance and strong competitiveness. Among them, the liquid cooling solution for high-pressure cascaded direct-mounted energy storage systems has been successfully deployed and operated stably in multiple clients, achieving a cumulative installed capacity of over 2 GWh, demonstrating the company's competitiveness. In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue in the field of energy storage and temperature control was about 0.363 billion yuan, an increase of about 46% over the previous year. It has accumulated customers from Ningde Era, Sunshine Power, CRRC, and China Airlines. The growth trend is expected to continue in the future.
The data center business is expected to become the company's second growth engine: the rapid development of the AI industry accelerates the advent of the data center liquid cooling era. KeZhi Consulting expects China's liquid cooling data center market to reach 102 billion yuan by 2027. Currently, the company is actively expanding the data center temperature control business, launching supporting products for plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling, and has developed products such as liquid-cooled CDUs, chilled water units, and Feng Shui heat exchangers. The comprehensive PUE of the self-developed full-chain solution of plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling can reach 1.04. The company completed the 0 to 1 expansion phase in 2023 and is expected to start contributing revenue in 2024.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.137/2.783/3.646 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother will be 0.145/0.232/0.319 billion yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 42/26/19 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
There is a risk that the ban will be lifted for a large amount of money, increased market competition, demand for AI servers will fall short of expectations, and the price of lithium batteries will fall.
