Source: Wall Street See

US economic data supports traders' bet on a 25 basis point conventional rate cut in November. October's Markit data reached a two-month high, with strong service and improving manufacturing sectors, and the lowest inflation indicators in four and a half years; September's new home sales surpassed expectations to more than a year's high; initial jobless claims last week hit the lowest since the end of September, continuing claims near a three-year high, indicating difficulties for long-term unemployed finding work again, cooling down the job market. FOMC member Hammack mentioned good progress in lowering inflation, but more work is needed.

The Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI remains poor, with business activity stagnant, German manufacturing better than expected, French full-scale acceleration decline, with traders tending to believe the ECB will cut rates by 50 basis points in December, but the hawkish Bundesbank president warns against being hasty. The UK's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value is on the brink of contracting to a new low of 6 months, the service sector PMI hits an 11-month low, but the most hawkish MPC member Mann holds a cautious attitude towards rate cuts, stating that service inflation pressure is not dissipating. The Bank of Japan's decision to stay put in October is becoming more certain.

On Thursday, October 24th, the Dow Jones fell alone. Dragged down by IBM and Honeywell earnings reports, the Dow recorded its fourth consecutive day of decline, with the deepest drop on Thursday exceeding 323 points. The S&P reached nearly a 0.4% high midday, ending a three-day decline. Tesla's 22% increase provided support for the Nasdaq and the consumer discretionary sector leading the gains. The Nasdaq rose by over 0.8% midday, with the consumer discretionary sector rising by 3.2%, while the raw materials, utilities, and industrial sectors lagged behind.

• The major US indices saw only the Dow Jones fall. The S&P 500 Index rose by 12.44 points, up 0.21%, to 5809.86 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, fell by 140.59 points, down 0.33%, to 42,374.36 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rose by 138.83 points, up 0.76%, to 18,415.49 points. The Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 0.83%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC) measuring the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks rose by 0.3%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose by 0.23%. The VIX fear index fell by 0.83% to 19.08.

• US stock industry ETFs showed mixed gains and losses at the close. The consumer discretionary ETF rose by over 3%, the internet index ETF, regional bank ETF, banking ETF, and semiconductor ETF each rose by about 0.5%. Meanwhile, the global aviation industry ETF fell by over 1%, the medical industry ETF and utility sector ETF rose by over 0.5%, and the biotechnology index ETF increased by less than 0.5%.

• The S&P 500 Index's 11 sectors saw mixed performance. The consumer discretionary sector rose by 3.24%, the telecommunications sector by 0.24%, the real estate sector by 0.22%, the information technology/technology sector by 0.21%, the financial sector by 0.08%, the energy sector fell by 0.19%, the consumer staples sector fell by 0.22%, the healthcare sector fell by 0.68%, the utilities sector fell by 0.71%, the industrial sector fell by 0.71%, and the materials sector fell by 1.42%.

• "Tech Seven Sisters" saw more gains than losses. Amazon closed up by 0.9%, "metaverse" Meta rose by 0.73%. Nvidia rose by 0.61%, reaching an AI infrastructure collaboration with several major Indian tech giants, with Huang Renxun stating that India will become an AI exporter. Microsoft closed up by 0.03%, while Google A fell by 0.04%, as the UK antitrust regulator officially investigates Google's investment in Anthropic AI. Apple closed down by 0.08%, gearing up for AI, Apple will launch three new Mac models with M4 chips next week, and may complete upgrades for all Mac models next year. Tesla soared by 21.92%, raising its 2024 full-year capital expenditure forecast, exceeding expectations in the third quarter, bringing the best single-day performance in over eleven years with the third-quarter report, boosting "wood sister" ETF by over 3.5%, and increasing Musk's net worth by $33.5 billion in a single day. Investors are optimistic about Tesla's third-quarter earnings, believing that the company's most difficult period may be over. However, JPMorgan advises investors not to overly focus on the large increase in stock price this time, as they believe the uptrend triggered by the earnings report may not be sustainable.

• Among electric vehicle concept stocks, QuantumScape Corp. rose by 25.48%, GreenPower Motor by 13.98%, Nikola by 6.3%, ASML Holding ADR by 4.33%, "wood sister" Cathie Wood's ETF ARK rose by 3.54%, "Tesla's rival" Rivian rose by 2.66%, Xiaopeng ADR fell by 6.18%, Hyzon Motors by 13.02%, NIO fell by 4.05%, and Li Auto rose by over 1%.

• Most chip stocks rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.51%. The SOXX industry ETF rose by 0.56%; the NVIDIA 2x leveraged long ETF rose by 1.1%. AMD rose by 0.35%. Intel rose by 1.64%, and Intel won a €1.1 billion antitrust lawsuit in the EU. Micron Technology rose by 1.71%, Applied Materials rose by 0.57%, KLA Corp rose by 0.23%, Qualcomm rose by 0.9%, ASML Holding ADR rose by 0.31%, ON Semiconductor rose by 3.1%, while Broadcom fell by 1.24%, Arm Holdings fell by 0.96%, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR fell by 1.46%.

• AI concept stocks rebounded collectively. BullFrog AI rose by 1.77%, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by NVIDIA, rose by 6.02%, BigBear.ai rose by 1.88%, C3.ai rose by 2.38%, CrowdStrike rose by 1.73%, Dell Technologies rose by 0.9%, Snowflake rose by 1.15%, Super Micro Computer rose by 1.92%, Serve Robotics rose by 5.41%, Oracle rose by 0.74%, Palantir rose by 2.28%.

• Most China concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.82% after a 1.6% drop, closing at 6829.53 points. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 1%, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell by 1.24%, the FTSE China 3x Leveraged Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 1.89%, the FTSE China 3x Leveraged Bear ETF (YANG) rose by 1.69%. The "China Dragon" ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) fell by 1.21%. The FTSE A50 futures continued to fall in overnight trading by 0.19%, closing at 13450.000 points.

• Among popular China concept stocks, Fangdd Network fell by 3.48%, Meituan ADR fell by 2.53%, Bilibili fell by 2.11%, Mengniu Dairy ADR fell by 2.03%, JD.com fell by 1.68%, Alibaba fell by 1.67%, Pinduoduo fell by 0.78%, Baidu fell by 0.52%, NetEase fell by 1.45%, Tencent ADR fell by 0.37%, Vipshop fell by 0.57%, New Oriental fell by 0.5%, while Tiger Securities rose by 1.49%, Trip.com Group rose by 1.01%, Miniso rose by 0.33%. TAL Education rose by 2.84%, exceeding expectations in both revenue and adjusted earnings per ADS for the second quarter.

• Other key individual stocks: (1) McDonald's, involved in severe E. coli infection incidents in many parts of the USA, rose by 1.01%. Yum! Brands, the parent company of KFC, decided to remove fresh onions from some KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell stores due to E. coli infection incidents, leading to a 0.64% decline in stock price. (2) Boeing fell by over 3.2% before closing 1.18% lower. The union stated that striking Boeing workers rejected the agreement and will continue to strike. (3) Novo-Nordisk ADR fell by 1.57%, research found that Novo-Nordisk's weight-loss drug Ozempic may help reduce the risk of Alzheimer's disease. (4) Among companies reporting earnings, IBM, which fell by over 6% in half a year for lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue, experienced its deepest decline. Industrial leader Honeywell fell by over 5% as a result. Whirlpool, the home appliance leader, surged over 11% on better-than-expected third-quarter results. UPS, which exceeded expectations across the board in the third quarter, initially increased by 10% and then halved that increase. Semiconductor equipment manufacturer Lam Research rose by 5% as a result, and telecommunications giant T-Mobile rose by nearly 6%. Toy giant Mattel, which exceeded expectations in the third quarter, rose by over 4%, but Southwest Airlines, with outstanding financial reports, fell by over 5.5%, and similarly, despite favorable financial reports, American Airlines fell by over 3% before closing 0.4% lower. (5) Most cryptocurrencies rose, driving up cryptocurrency/ blockchain concept stocks, with 'demon stock' Ideanomics soaring by 137.5% and 'big bitcoin holder' MicroStrategy rising by 10.25%.

European stock markets edged higher, with Renault, Barclays, and Hermes seeing their stock prices rise after quarterly reports. BE Semiconductor Industries rose by around 5.7%, leading to a roughly 0.7% increase in the Dutch stock index:

• The STOXX 600 index in Europe rose by 0.03%, closing at 518.98 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index rose by 0.26%, while the FTSE Eurotop 300 index rose by 0.05%. Gains and losses were mixed across sectors, with travel and leisure sector stocks rising by 3.1%, while chemical sector stocks fell by 0.65%.

• Among the constituents, Renault saw an unexpected rise in third-quarter revenue due to strong demand for its high-priced models, leading to an initial surge of over 7% and a closing rise of 4.7%. Barclays reported better-than-expected third-quarter performance, with an initial surge of over 5% and a closing rise of 4.2%. French luxury brand Hermes reported an 11% increase in third-quarter sales, attributed to robust demand for platinum bags, with a stock price initially rising over 2.3% before closing 1% higher.

• Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.34%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.08%, Netherlands' AEX index rose 0.67%, Italy's FTSE MIB index remained flat at 0.00%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.13%.

US bond yields fell across the board but all remained above 4.00%, with the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping by about 4.2 basis points from a three-month high. The currency market's expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December intensified, with the 10-year German bond yield falling by about 4 basis points. UK bond prices surged and then retreated, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves maintains an open attitude towards expanding budget financing:

• US Bonds: At the close, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury benchmark bond fell by 4.18 basis points to 4.2038%, showing a fluctuating downward trend throughout the day, rebounding to near 4.24% after the 20:30 release of the US jobless claims report. The two-year US bond yield fell by 0.99 basis points to 4.0680%, trading within a range of 4.0865% to 4.0317% during the day.

• Euro Bonds: At the close, the 10-year German bond yield fell by 3.8 basis points to 2.266%, remaining in a downtrend throughout the day. The two-year German bond yield fell by 2.6 basis points to 2.076%. The 10-year UK bond yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.235%, and the two-year yield rose by 4.6 basis points. The 10-year French bond yield fell by 4.1 basis points, showing a overall downtrend with fluctuations; the 10-year Italian bond yield fell by 4.6 basis points.

US Dollar Index fell by about 0.4% on Thursday, ending a three-day rally and moving away from the near three-month high, the Japanese Yen rebounded by over 0.6% to over 152, offshore Chinese Yuan rose over 190 points, breaking through 7.12 Yuan, and Bitcoin rose nearly 3% back above $68,000.

• US Dollar: The Dollar Index DXY fell by 0.38% at the close to 104.030 points, hitting a daily low of 104.012 points at one point. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.21% to 1257.71 points, trading in a range of 1261.10-1256.99 points during the day, continuing to smoothly trend lower.

• Steven Englander, the forex research head at Standard Chartered Bank, said that about 60% of the US dollar's October rally can be attributed to bets on Trump winning. He believes that the market is now predicting a nearly 70% chance of a Trump victory. If Trump wins, but Congress remains divided (meaning the Republicans do not control both houses), some may take profits. He also mentioned that the impact of a Trump victory on the forex market may be greater than on the bond market, with the US employment report having a bigger impact on bonds this month. The bank's analysis shows that out of the 40 basis points increase in the 10-year US bond yield since early October, around 7 basis points are due to the rising probability of Trump's victory.

• Non-US currencies: The euro rose 0.43% against the US dollar to 1.0828; the British pound rose 0.41% against the US dollar, while the US dollar fell 0.07% against the Swiss franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.11% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.15%, and the US dollar rose 0.12% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona rose 0.36% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose 0.50%.

• Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen rose 0.62% against the US dollar to 151.82 at the close, trading in a range of 152.83-151.55 yen during the day. The euro fell 0.18% against the Japanese yen to 164.39 yen; the British pound fell 0.21% to 196.975 yen. The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the status quo in October seems almost certain, depending on how the "inflation outlook" is adjusted. Market uncertainty surrounding the US and Japan elections has cast a shadow, with the yen rapidly declining this month. Some forex strategists believe there is a risk of the yen falling to the 160 level against the US dollar in the coming weeks. If this happens, it could potentially trigger official intervention by the Japanese authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned that he would closely monitor the forex market with a stronger sense of urgency, including observing speculative trading.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore Renminbi rose by 114 points against the US dollar at the close, reaching 7.1244 yuan, trading within a range of 7.1387-7.1164 yuan throughout the day.

• Most cryptocurrencies are on the rise: The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose by 2.80% at the close to $68,220.00. The second largest, Ethereum, rose by 1.00% to $2,533.50.

Market concerns about the slowdown in the European economy adversely affecting oil demand. There are reports that the US and Israel will attempt to restart negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire, putting pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent oil rose over 2% before briefly turning down by over 1%. WTI briefly fell below $70, while New York natural gas rose by about 7.7%.

• WTI crude oil futures for December closed down $0.58, nearly 0.82%, at $70.19 a barrel. European stocks rose by over 2.2% during the session, pushing above $72.30, then continued to decline. At midday in the US, stocks fell by over 1.4%, dropping below $70.

• Brent crude oil futures for December closed down $0.58, falling more than 0.77%, at $74.38 a barrel. European stocks rose by over 2.1% during the session, pushing above $76.50, then continued to decline. At midday in the US, stocks dropped by nearly 1.3%, pressing below $74.

• In terms of news, according to CCTV News, on the 23rd, the chief of staff of the Israeli military stated that Israel may soon end its conflict with Hezbollah because they have essentially destroyed the high command system of Hezbollah in Lebanon. On October 24, local time, Israeli officials said a delegation will travel to Doha by the 27th for talks on a Gaza ceasefire. OANDA analyst Kelvin Wong stated, 'Trump trade' is heating up; if former President Trump is elected, his proposal for the US to become a major oil supplier may potentially lower oil prices.

• Natural gas: NYMEX November natural gas futures closed up over 7.68%, at $2.5220 per million British thermal units.

Rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand drive gold prices up over 1% intraday, reapproaching historical highs, but silver profit-taking once dropped by 1.4%. The US calls for sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium exports, supply threats boost palladium prices by around 10% to reach a new high of the year.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose by 0.71% to $2748.80 per ounce at the close. In early European trading, spot gold maintained gains throughout the day, with US stocks rising over 1% to surpass $2740 in early trading and up by 0.76% at the close, at $2736.11 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures edged up 0.02% at the close, at $33.845 per ounce. Spot silver continued its earlier gains, rising nearly 1.8% in midday European trading to break above $34.30, then sharply reversed, with US stocks dropping nearly 1.4% to around $33.20 at midday and ending the session down by 0.05% at $33.6833 per ounce.

• In terms of research strategies, rate cut expectations by central banks and safe-haven demand have driven gold prices up over 33% this year and set numerous historical highs. ANZ Bank stated that concerns about rising US national debt have strengthened the investment case for gold.

• Palladium prices rose by around 10% to reach a new high of the year, reportedly due to the Biden administration's request for the G7 to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium exports. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that given Russia's approximately 40% share of palladium mining supply, such a decision would lead to a substantial increase in palladium prices.

• London industrial metals fluctuated: LME copper fell $14 to $9507 per ton. LME aluminum fell $20 to $2650 per ton. LME zinc rose $30 to $3174 per ton. LME lead rose $12 to $2074 per ton. LME nickel fell $13 to $16295 per ton. LME tin rose $229 to $31135 per ton. LME cobalt remained steady at $24300 per ton.

• COMEX copper futures rose 0.67%, to $4.3655 per pound.

Editor / jayden