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新东方-S(9901.HK):核心教育业务仍表现稳健 估值有修复空间

New Oriental-S (9901.HK): The core education business is still performing steadily, and the valuation has room for repair

bocom intl ·  Oct 24

Results for the first quarter of FY2025: Revenue of $1.44 billion, compared to our expectations of $1.46 billion, which is basically in line with Bloomberg market expectations, up 30.5% year over year. Excluding Oriental Selection, revenue increased by 33.5%, which is basically in line with our expectations, mainly driven by the growth of new education businesses. The adjusted operating profit was 0.3 billion US dollars, up 23% year on year, corresponding to the adjusted operating profit margin of 21%. Excluding Oriental Selection, the operating profit margin was 24%, optimized by 2.2 percentage points year on year, mainly benefiting from the scale effect brought about by the peak season of the education business and the expansion of teaching sites last year. The adjusted net profit of $2.6 is basically in line with our /Bloomberg market expectations. It corresponds to the adjusted net interest rate of 18%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year.

Overview of core education business: 1) Traditional business: study abroad examination/overseas consulting/adult and college student/high school income increased 18.8%/20.7%/30.4%/~ 21% year-on-year, contributing about 50% of revenue. Due to the impact of the 1:1 business, overseas exam preparation and high school income decelerated slightly compared to our expectations, and college student business growth accelerated. 2) New business: Revenue increased 50% year on year, revenue contributed about 24%, up 3 percentage points from the same period last year. Quarterly enrollment for non-subject training increased 11% year over year to 0.484 million. The slowdown in growth compared to the previous year was mainly affected by differences in enrollment windows for the same period last year. 3) As of August 31, the number of teaching sites reached 1,089, an increase of 296/64 (+37%/6%, compared with a net increase of 114 compared to the previous quarter). Management maintained an expansion forecast of 20-25% for FY2025, and the pace of expansion was in line with our expectations.

Financial forecast and valuation: We expect revenue from education services and cultural tourism business (excluding Oriental Selection) to increase 28% year on year to 0.87 billion US dollars (25-28% growth rate according to management guidelines) in the 2nd quarter of FY2025. Among them, overseas examination+consulting growth rate is 20% /college student growth rate 34% /high school student growth rate +20% /new business +45%. The second quarter is the low season for the whole year, and the profit margin for core business operations is expected to be about 1.7%, down about 1 percentage point year on year, mainly affected by off-season losses in the cultural tourism business, but some are affected by excellent educational profit margins offset. We still basically maintain our expectations for education and cultural tourism revenue of +30% and operating profit margin of 13% in FY2025. Operating profit is growing faster than revenue. We believe that New Oriental is still a leading company in the education and training industry. Although the revenue and profit contributions of subsidiaries are uncertain in the short term, the education service product structure still has the opportunity to adjust in a timely manner according to market demand, and the trend of steady revenue growth and profit margin optimization remains unchanged. Corresponding to profits for the 12 months up to the end of February 2026, the education business was given a price-earnings ratio of 20 times, and the target price was maintained at a target price of HK$80/103. The company's current price corresponds to 15 times the price-earnings ratio for the 2025 calendar year, attracting valuations and maintaining purchases.

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