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US stocks outlook | Bullish outlook! Morgan Stanley: US stocks will remain strong in the next decade, benefiting from technology and AI; Tesla surges nearly 14% pre-market, Q3 profits exceed expectations.

Futu News · Oct 24 20:20

热点要闻

周四盘前，三大期指涨跌不一

明星科技股盘前多数上涨，特斯拉涨近14%，英伟达、AMD等涨超1%

热门中概股盘前走势分化，好未来涨超6%，阿里跌超1%

特斯拉盘前大涨近14%，三季度EPS不降反增9%，Cybertruck首次毛利转正

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 盘前大涨近14%，三季度营收同比增近8%仍低于预期，但盈利惊喜，毛利率同比不降反升195基点至19.8%，汽车业务毛利率超预期升至17.1%，此外Cybertruck业务首次毛利率转正。绩后，摩根大通将特斯拉目标价从130美元上调至135美元；Truist证券将特斯拉目标价从236美元上调至238美元。

优步、Lyft盘前下跌，特斯拉明年在得州和加州推打车服务

$优步 (UBER.US)$ 、 $Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$ 盘前均跌近3%，消息面上，特斯拉CEO马斯克表示，特斯拉将在明年在得州和加州推出打车服务。

英伟达盘前涨1.3%，黄仁勋：Blackwell芯片设计缺陷已修复

昨日收跌2.81%的 $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 今日盘前涨1.33%报141.41美元。消息面上，英伟达CEO黄仁勋称，在台积电的帮助下，英伟达最新款Blackwell AI芯片的设计缺陷已得到修复，该缺陷此前曾影响生产。在最近的高盛会议上，黄仁勋称这些芯片将在第四季度发货。

苹果响起需求警报？iPhone 16料遭砍单约1000万部 Vision Pro产量或已大减

隔夜 $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 股价下跌2.16%，而这背后可能与两条坏消息有关：首先是知名苹果供应链分析师郭明錤透露，苹果公司已将今年第四季度和2025年上半年iPhone 16的订单削减了约1000万部；其次是消息人士透露，苹果近几个月来已经大幅削减了Vision Pro 的产量。截至发稿，苹果盘前小幅回暖。

德国芯片梦又遭美国人“放鸽子”，Wolfspeed搁置30亿欧元建厂计划

继英特尔上个月搁置马格德堡晶圆厂项目后， $Wolfspeed (WOLF.US)$ 也宣布暂停德国项目。Wolfspeed在声明中表示，公司现在拥有“在可预见未来内，支持客户增长时间表所需的能力”。公司特别提到正在北卡罗来纳州总部和纽约州新建的设施，和生产力的提升。截至发稿，Wolfspeed盘前涨超2%。

IBM盘前跌近4%，Q3咨询业务及基础设施部门收入逊预期

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ 美股盘前跌近4%，公司Q3营收149.7亿美元，同比增长1.5%；调整后每股收益2.3美元，市场预期2.22美元。其中，咨询业务收入51.5亿美元，同比下降0.5%，略低于分析师预期的51.9亿美元。基础设施部门收入30.4亿美元，同比下降7%，低于分析师预期的32.4亿美元。

特斯拉打响业绩“翻身仗”！一大户昨日壕掷超1100万美元买入看多合约

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$隔夜跌近2%，财报显示，特斯拉三季度EPS增长9%，Cybertruck首次毛利转正。

隔夜，特斯拉期权总成交量达134万张，看涨比下降至53%；期权链上，多空焦灼，成交量最高的为本周五到期、220美元行权价的call，为4.7万张，其次为本周五到期、200美元行权价的put，为4.1万张。

值得注意的是，有大户花费超1100万美元买入一笔看多订单，分别为主卖2026年1月16日到期、190美元行权价的put，以及主买2026年1月16日到期、380美元行权价的call。

全球宏观

摩根大通认为美股未来十年保持强劲，受益于科技和AI

摩根大通认为推动近期大部分涨幅的美国大盘股仍将是投资组合的支柱，并在未来10至15年实现6.7%的年化回报率，人工智能将在提高生产力和经济增长方面发挥重要作用。

和高盛“唱反调”！华尔街大多头：美股不太可能陷入“失去的十年”

就在美股迭创新高之际，高盛近日的一份报告引发了市场对美股前景的讨论。该行预测，在经历过去十年的高增长期后，美股将遭遇“失去的十年”。对此，华尔街长期多头Yardeni Research表示，高盛对美股未来十年低回报的预测过于保守。该机构认为，下一个十年将重演“咆哮的二十年代”式的股市繁荣。

大胆预言！伯恩斯坦押注比特币明年将涨上20万美元

在10万美元的看涨欢呼声之中，伯恩斯坦研究公司在其最新报告中预测，到2025年底，比特币价格可能会高达20万美元。报告指出，今年年底，预计华尔街将取代创始人中本聪，成为比特币顶级钱包。这与比特币ETF的大获成功有关，该类型基金已经成为今年ETF中的主要交易。

日本央行10月“按兵不动”几成定局！关键在于“通胀展望”怎么调

据彭博社报道，接受彭博调查的大多数经济学家表示，日本央行预计将于下周（10月31日）会议上维持基准利率不变，下次加息在12月或1月。本次会议一大焦点是，日本央行是否会移除“2024财年价格具有上行风险”的措辞，若措辞被移除预计市场对12月加息的预期将减弱。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国至10月19日当周初请失业金人数

21:45 美国10月标普全球制造业PMI初值

21:45 美国10月标普全球服务业PMI初值

编辑/Somer

Hot news

Before the market opens on Thursday, the three major futures prices are mixed.

Growth tech stocks mostly rose in pre-market trading, with tesla up nearly 14%, nvidia, AMD, and others up over 1%.

China concept stocks showed mixed trends in pre-market trading, with tal education up over 6% and alibaba down over 1%.

Tesla surged nearly 14% in pre-market trading, with third-quarter EPS increasing by 9% instead of decreasing, and Cybertruck achieving its first positive gross margin.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Surging nearly 14% in pre-market trading, third-quarter revenue increased by nearly 8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, but profit surprised positively. The gross margin increased by 195 basis points to 19.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations in the auto business with a gross margin of 17.1%. Additionally, Cybertruck business achieved positive gross margin for the first time. After the performance, JPMorgan Chase raised tesla's target price from $130 to $135; Truist Securities raised tesla's target price from $236 to $238.

uber technologies, lyft inc fell before the market, and tesla will launch a ride-hailing service in texas and california next year.

$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$ Both fell nearly 3% before the market, on the news side, Tesla CEO Musk said that Tesla will launch a ride-hailing service in Texas and California next year.

nvidia rose 1.3% before the market, Huang Renxun: Blackwell chip design flaw has been fixed.

fell 2.81% yesterday $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Pre-market trading is up 1.33% at $141.41. On the news front, Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun stated that with the help of Taiwan Semiconductor, the design flaw in Nvidia's latest Blackwell AI chip has been fixed, which previously affected production. At a recent Goldman Sachs conference, Huang Renxun said these chips will ship in the fourth quarter.

Apple rings demand alarm? Orders for iPhone 16 cut by about 10 million units, Vision Pro production may have been greatly reduced.

Overnight $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The stock price fell by 2.16%, possibly due to two negative pieces of news: firstly, well-known Apple supply chain analyst Guo Mingchi revealed that Apple has cut orders for the iPhone 16 in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of 2025 by about 10 million units; secondly, sources disclosed that Apple has significantly reduced the production of the Vision Pro in recent months. As of the time of writing, Apple has seen a slight rebound in pre-market.

German chip dreams dashed by the Americans again, as Wolfspeed shelves a 3 billion euro factory construction plan.

Following Intel's shelving of the Magdeburg wafer fab project last month, $Wolfspeed (WOLF.US)$ Also announced the suspension of the German project. Wolfspeed stated in the announcement that the company now has the ability to support customer growth timelines in the foreseeable future. The company specifically mentioned facilities being built in North Carolina and New York, as well as productivity improvements. As of the time of publication, Wolfspeed rose over 2% in pre-market trading.

IBM fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading, with Q3 consulting and infrastructure business revenue below expectations.

$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ US stocks fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading, with Q3 revenue of $14.97 billion, a 1.5% year-on-year growth; adjusted EPS of $2.3, market expectations were $2.22. Among them, consulting revenue was $5.15 billion, a 0.5% year-on-year decrease, slightly lower than analysts' expected $5.19 billion. Infrastructure business revenue was $3.04 billion, a 7% year-on-year decrease, lower than analysts' expected $3.24 billion.

Tesla launches a performance 'comeback'! A large investor spent over $11 million buying bullish contracts yesterday.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Fell nearly 2% overnight, the financial report shows Tesla's third-quarter EPS increased by 9%, and Cybertruck's gross margin turned positive for the first time.

Overnight, the total options volume for Tesla reached 1.34 million contracts, with the call ratio declining to 53%; on the options chain, there is a dilemma between long and short positions, with the highest volume being the call with a strike price of $220 expiring this Friday, totaling 0.047 million contracts, followed by the put with a strike price of $200 expiring this Friday, totaling 0.041 million contracts.

It is worth noting that a big player spent over $11 million to buy a bullish order, consisting of selling the put with a strike price of $190 expiring on January 16, 2026, and buying the call with a strike price of $380 expiring on January 16, 2026.

Global macro

JPMorgan believes that the US stock market will remain strong in the next ten years, benefiting from technology and AI.

JPMorgan believes that the key to recent gains in US large cap stocks will continue to be the backbone of portfolios, targeting a 6.7% annualized ROI over the next 10 to 15 years, with AI playing a crucial role in boosting productivity and economic growth.

Goldman Sachs 'sings a different tune'! Wall Street bulls: It's unlikely that the US stock market will fall into a 'lost decade'.

Amidst the US stock market reaching new highs, a recent report from Goldman Sachs has sparked discussions about the future outlook of the US stock market. The bank predicts that after experiencing a decade of high growth, the US stock market will face a 'lost decade'. In response, the long-term bullish Wall Street institution, Yardeni Research, believes that Goldman Sachs' forecast of low returns for US stocks over the next ten years is too conservative. The institutions anticipates a stock market prosperity similar to the 'Roaring Twenties' in the next decade.

Bold prediction! Bernstein bets that bitcoin will rise to $0.2 million next year.

Amid the cheers for the bullish sentiment at $0.1 million, Bernstein Research predicts in its latest report that by the end of 2025, the price of bitcoin could reach as high as $0.2 million. The report points out that by the end of this year, Wall Street is expected to replace the founder Satoshi Nakamoto as the top wallet holder of bitcoin. This is related to the great success of the bitcoin ETF, which has become a major player in this year's ETF trading.

The Bank of japan is likely to maintain the status quo in October! The key lies in how to adjust the "inflation outlook".

According to Bloomberg, a majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg indicate that the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the meeting next week (October 31), with the next rate hike in December or January. A major focus of this meeting is whether the Bank of Japan will remove the phrase 'risks to prices have an upward bias for the fiscal year 2024', and if this phrase is removed, market expectations for a December rate hike are expected to weaken.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 19

21:45 U.S. October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary

21:45 USA October s&p global services PMI preliminary value

Editor/Somer

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