盈利能力韧性依旧。2024 年前三季度公司实现销售毛利率28.04%，同比-1.71pcts，预计主要系高毛利率的冷冻展示柜产品占比下降所致。期间费用方面，前三季度公司销售费用率同比+1.66pcts 至7.62%，预计主要系外销客户售后服务费用及相应业务人员增加等因素所致；管理费用率同比+0.61pct 至3.54%，财务费用率同比+0.38pct 至-1.05%，最终录得公司前三季度销售净利率12.98%，同比-1.33pcts。Key points of investment:
Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations. The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters, it achieved a total operating income of 2.11 billion yuan, -15.56% year over year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 0.272 billion yuan, or -23.56% year on year, and realized net profit of 0.244 billion yuan after deduction, or -31.03% year on year; of these, Q3 achieved operating income of 0.523 billion yuan, +7.00% year on year, and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 0.072 Billions of yuan, -16.56% year over year, achieved net profit of 0.068 billion yuan after deduction, or -19.84% year over year. The company's overall Q3 performance slightly exceeded our previous expectations in terms of performance forecasting.
The refrigeration business improved month-on-month in Q3, and refrigerated export sales remained strong. By business, in the field of commercial refrigerated display cases, 24H1 was affected by factors such as the late recovery of objective weather and policy fluctuations in overseas markets. The overall procurement volume of some customers declined, and the overall contribution of major domestic customers such as quick-frozen food increased in 24Q3. The overall refrigeration business is expected to stabilize. On the export side, Indonesia abolished its export quota policy in June, and shipments gradually returned to normal in Q3. In the field of commercial refrigerated display cases, the company has a certain market share in the high-end beverage industry in North America. Affected by factors such as the preparation pace of overseas customers, in Q3, we expect the company's refrigerated export business to maintain a high level of prosperity; the customer base in the domestic market basically covers mainstream beverage brands, and its market share and brand influence are rapidly increasing.
Profitability remains resilient. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross sales margin of 28.04%, -1.71 pcts year on year. It is expected to be mainly due to a decline in the share of refrigerated display cabinet products with high gross margin. In terms of period expenses, the company's sales expense ratio for the first three quarters was +1.66 pcts to 7.62% year on year, which is expected to be mainly due to factors such as after-sales service expenses for export customers and the increase in corresponding business personnel; the management fee ratio was +0.61 pct to 3.54% year over year, and the financial expenses ratio was +0.38 pcts to -1.05% year on year. In the end, the company recorded a net sales margin of 12.98% for the first three quarters, and -1.33 pcts year on year.
Maintain an “overweight” investment rating. Considering the impact of factors such as intense competition in the refrigerated display cabinet business, we slightly lowered our previous profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.337/0.406/0.468 billion yuan (previous value was 0.357/0.425/0.487 billion yuan), -18.5%/+20.7%/+15.2% year-on-year, respectively, corresponding to the current price-earnings ratio of 13 times, 10 times /9 times, respectively.
The company has a stable advantage in the field of refrigerated display cases. With the continuous development of refrigerated customers, the second growth curve is expected to accelerate. We continue to be optimistic about the company's future development and maintain an investment rating of “increase in wealth”.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; risk of domestic and foreign policy fluctuations; risk of increased competition.
