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美国大选,“股神”巴菲特不站队,华尔街金主们疯狂砸钱!

In the usa election, 'Stock God' Buffett does not take sides, Wall Street tycoons are crazy about spending money!

Gelonghui Finance ·  Oct 24 16:59

Who can take over the White House? The financial markets have already placed their bets.

The final stage of the USA election has begun. With less than 12 days left, the race is extremely tight.

Currently, Trump and Harris are neck and neck, both pulling out all the stops to win more voter support.

On November 5th, who will ultimately take over the White House? The answer is still full of suspense.

The 'Stock God' does not take sides.

Currently, the showdown between the two candidates is becoming increasingly intense, with 'big donors' behind each of them crazily spending money.

Previously, Trump brought Musk to support him.

The super billionaire Musk not only repeatedly appeared to cheer for him, but also fully utilized his financial resources, lavishly spending millions to 'buy voters' for Trump.

Allegedly, Elon Musk donated approximately $75 million to Donald Trump.

It has to be said that in this heated 'battle', both Trump and Musk have been actively engaged and shared the same goal.

On the other hand, billionaire Bill Gates recently revealed to have donated $50 million to Harris.

In response, Gates only stated that he "supports candidates who have made clear commitments to improving healthcare, reducing poverty, and fighting climate change in the United States and globally".

According to Forbes magazine's statistics, Harris received support from approximately 80 billionaires, while Trump had assistance from about 50 billionaires.

As the capital markets are actively supporting Trump and Harris, 'Stock God' Buffett publicly declared that he will not endorse any political candidates.

On Wednesday local time, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway released a brief statement on its website:

"With the increasing use of social media, there is a proliferation of fraudulent claims regarding Mr. Buffett's endorsement of investment products and political candidates."
"Buffett currently and in the future will not endorse investment products predictably, nor will he endorse and support political candidates."
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As the US presidential election date approaches, to avoid the risk of online AI impersonating him "taking sides" and being used by political candidates for publicity, this is why the "Stock God" made such a statement.

Buffett also explained that he is concerned about the online impersonation of him.

"I am worried someone will impersonate me, so we put this information on Berkshire's website. No one should believe me when I tell them how to invest or how to (vote in the election)."

Dubbed the "Oracle of Omaha", Buffett is one of the most accomplished and influential investors in American history.

In the past four presidential elections, he has supported the Democratic Party in three of them.

Previously, he openly supported Clinton's campaign for president in 2016, as well as President Obama's White House campaigns in 2012 and 2008.

But during the 2020 election, Buffett neither opposed Biden nor supported Trump.

Who will take over the White House? Financial markets are betting.

Currently, Trump has once again surpassed Harris.

According to the latest opinion poll by The Wall Street Journal, Trump leads Harris by 47% to 45%.

In comparison, in the August survey, Harris had a 2 percentage point lead.

According to the predictions of the political gambling website Polymarket, the strengths and weaknesses between the two have become even more pronounced.

Currently, Trump has a high possibility of winning the presidency at 60%, while Harris is below 40%.

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With only two weeks left until the US election day, Trump and Harris are tirelessly campaigning in swing states in the USA.

Global funds have already started placing their bets.

Goldman Sachs FICC Vice President Vincent Mistretta recently stated that the market is leaning towards a Trump victory. The odds of Trump winning in the market have increased before.

Goldman Sachs analysts Mark Salib and Fernando Alvarado Aguilar also mentioned that various clients are buying this week, including hedge funds preparing for a potential Trump victory.

However, Bank of America believes that the election results will have minimal impact on the US stock market.

Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian stated that in fact, the US stock market rarely cares about which party will control the White House. Instead, investors should focus entirely on corporate profit growth.

She predicts that regardless of who wins in the November election, US stocks will rise by 2025.

And it is expected that the earnings per share of companies in the S&P 500 index next year will grow by 13% year-on-year, while profit growth has always been the biggest driver of stock market gains.

Zhongjin Research Analysis believes that the financial markets have indicative significance for the election.

For assets, whether it is a scenario of 'Republican victory' or 'Trump + Democratic House of Representatives', it is more likely to lead to an increase in US bond yields, a strengthening US dollar, and even though gold may show hedging value due to high interest rate suppression.

The difference lies in that in the scenario of 'Republican victory', the economic growth is better, the boost to US stock earnings is greater, and the magnitude of the increase in US bond yields may also be higher.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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