Golden Key Financial News | Sealand Securities released research reports, predicting that alibaba (09988) FY2025Q2 (corresponding to 2024Q3) will achieve total revenue of 239.6 billion yuan (+7% YoY, -1% QoQ), adjusted EBITA down 7% YoY to 39.8 billion yuan, adjusted EBITA margin at 17%; where Taotian Group is expected to have revenue of 101.3 billion yuan (+4% YoY, -11% QoQ), with adjusted EBITA margin at 44%; Alibaba International Digital Business Group is expected to have revenue of 31.3 billion yuan (+28% YoY, +7% QoQ), with adjusted EBITA margin at -11%; and Cloud asia vets Group is expected to have revenue of 29.9 billion yuan (+8% YoY, +13% QoQ), with adjusted EBITA margin at 8%.

Considering the gradual recovery of the company's income growth, but still in the core business investment period, the bank has adjusted its profit forecast. The bank expects the company's revenue for fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 1010/1117.7/1231.4 billion yuan, net income attributable to owners of the parent company to be 101.9/123.8/143.3 billion yuan, non-GAAP net income attributable to owners of the parent company to be 158.2/172.4/196.8 billion yuan, corresponding diluted EPS of 5.1/6.2/7.2 yuan, corresponding P/E ratios of 17x/14x/12x, corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 11x/10x/9x; based on the SOTP valuation method, the bank gives alibaba a total market cap of 2070.8 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, corresponding to a target price of 108 RMB/118 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating.