Guolian Securities issued a research report on the relationship between the brokerage index and stock trading volume, summarizing a total of 7 rounds from 2006 to the present. Among them, 4 rounds were almost synchronous, 3 rounds lagged behind by 5-8 trading days. The brokerage index and market trading volume basically moved in the same direction, with a higher positive correlation. In recent years, the overall center of stock trading volume has been on the rise. The trend of the brokerage index has shown weak conformity with the changes in trading volume, and there have been situations where the trends of trading volume and the brokerage index deviate. When trading volume grows rapidly, it often indicates a bullish market sentiment, with a high probability of the brokerage index rising. During the period of sustained and substantial trading volume since 2019, the brokerage index has risen.

The brokerage pointed out that the current market trading activity has significantly increased, and the total turnover of the entire A-share market has reached a historical high. Since the end of September 2024, a series of bullish policies have been introduced, market sentiment has gradually improved. The average daily turnover of the two markets has risen from a low point of 480.3 billion yuan on September 18, 2024, to a peak of 3.5 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024. The phase of significantly increased turnover may have peaked, but the current turnover ratio of the entire A-share market still has 86.9% room to reach the historical peak since 2012; the proportion of on-exchange leveraged funds to the total A-share market value still has 129% room to reach the historical peak since 2012; the proportion of margin financing buy volume in the total A-share turnover still has 89% room to reach the historical peak since 2012, indicating that the brokerage sector may not have finished its rally.

The brokerage maintains a rating of the securities industry as 'outperforming the broader market.' Since September 2024, the press conference by the three financial ministries of the State Council's Information Office and the Politburo meeting have been convened beyond expectations, and a series of policies are expected to boost investor confidence. Since late September, the trading activity in A-shares has rapidly rebounded. If the market beta moves upwards, then the brokerage industry still has room for resilience. The expected implementation of convenient swap rules is likely to enhance the liquidity of the capital markets and further increase market trading activity. Against the backdrop of regulatory policies guiding the capital-intensive development of brokerages and encouraging brokerages to grow bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions, with increasing profit differentiation in the industry, the brokerage believes that the process of structural reform on the supply side of brokerages is expected to accelerate. Currently, the PB valuation of the brokerage industry is still in the historical bottom range, and the focus is on recommending highly leveraged, undervalued state-owned large brokerages such as Huatai Securities (06886) and Citic Securities (06030).