Guosen Securities issued a research report stating that Chinfmining (01258) produced approximately 0.0959 million tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services) in the first three quarters, a decrease of about 13% year-on-year. The company is expected to achieve a net income of approximately 0.314 billion US dollars attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of about 23%. Among them, in 24Q1/Q2/Q3, the net income attributable to the parent company was approximately 0.084/0.135/0.095 billion US dollars respectively.

The bank mentioned that the company produced approximately 0.0877 million tons of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines in 2023, and approximately 0.0817 million tons of cathode copper from its own mines, totaling approximately 0.1693 million tons. The copper production cost from its own mines is relatively stable, and the rise in copper prices can bring significant profit elasticity to the company. In addition, the company currently has a total of 4 mines under construction or planned, including the Zhongse Lu'an Xia No. 28 Shaft Project, the Kambuv Menchessa Mine Project, the Kambuv West Mine Project, and the Qianbihai Southeast Mine Phase II Project. After all 4 projects are fully operational with full production, it is expected that the company will add an annual copper production capacity of 0.13 million tons. Based on the annual copper production from its own mines of approximately 0.17 million tons in 2023, it is estimated that the annual copper production volume from its own mines will reach about 0.3 million tons by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 8%.

The bank predicts that the company's revenue for 2024-2026 will be 41.77/43.94/46.14 billion US dollars (previously forecasted as 41.14/43.15/45.16), with year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%/5.2%/5.0%; the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.21/4.87/5.29 billion US dollars (previously forecasted as 4.04/4.50/4.86), with year-on-year growth rates of 51.5%/15.9%/8.5%; diluted EPS will be 0.11/0.12/0.14 US dollars, and the corresponding PE ratios at the current stock prices will be 6.9/5.9/5.5x. Considering the expected continuous increase in the company's copper production and the potential profit elasticity from the rising copper prices, the "outperform the market" rating is maintained.