投资建议：考虑本轮国内家电以旧换新拉动效果显著，作为黑电龙头受益明显，公司国内彩电基本盘稳健；全球竞争能力持续提升，大屏化、高端化布局高歌猛进，提质增效进入兑现期，我们维持24-26 年盈利预测，预计EPS 分别为0.56/0.68/0.76 港元，同比+90%/+21%/+13%。维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's Q3 color TV shipment data was released, and global shipments in a single quarter exceeded expectations; high-end technology advanced rapidly. Increase your holdings.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Considering that the current round of domestic home appliance trade-in has had significant benefits, the company's domestic color TV base is steady; global competitiveness continues to improve, and the large screen and high-end layout are advancing rapidly, improving quality and efficiency and entering the cash out period. We maintain our 24-26 profit forecast. EPS is expected to be HK$0.56/0.68/0.76, respectively, +90%/+21%/+13% compared to the same period. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Accurate marketing of sporting events, global shipments in a single quarter exceeded expectations. The company shipped 7.49 million TV units worldwide in a single Q3, which surpassed expectations by a significant increase of +19.7%. Separated, domestic shipments in a single Q3 were 1.49 million units, +5% year over year; overseas shipments were 5.99 million units, +24% year over year. Among them, Q3 North America +28% (24H1 was -2.7% YoY). Thanks to precise marketing policies such as the NFL (NFL), North American market shipments improved drastically marginally; European market shipments in the first three quarters were +35.5% YoY; and shipments in emerging markets were +6% YoY in the first three quarters. Thanks to increased sports event marketing and channel penetration, the company's color TV shipments in the European and American markets greatly exceeded expectations.
The company's large screen and high-end layout are making great strides. TCL Electronics is leading the global trend of large screen and high-end color TV markets. In the first three quarters of 2024, global shipments of 65 inches and above were +16.8%, accounting for +0.8 pct to 24.3%; global shipments of 75 inches and above were +35.3% year-on-year, accounting for +2.0pct to 11.8% of shipments. The average size of TCL TVs shipped globally was +1.3 inches to 51.8 inches year over year. Global shipments of quantum dot TVs and mini LED TVs in the first three quarters of 24 years were +61.1%/+162.8% year-on-year, respectively. The company uses large screens and high-end technology as starting points to promote product structure optimization.
Panel prices have remained stable, and the pressure on the color TV cost side has eased somewhat. In early October, the price of mainstream TV panels remained flat month-on-month. The average price of 65", 55", 43", and 32" TV panels in early October was $171, 124, 63, and 34 USD/piece, +0/+0/+0 USD/piece, respectively. The average price was +1.18%/-1.59%/-4.55%/-10.53%. Panel prices have stabilized from rising in the first half of the year. Small and medium-sized panels have declined year on year, and the pressure on the color TV cost side has eased somewhat. In line with the optimization of the company's product structure, gross profit space has opened up.
Risk warning: Fluctuating panel prices, increased industry competition, indicating a decline in overseas business demand.