2024Q3 乙烷价格大幅下滑，油价影响下化工品价格从7 月高位持续回落，整体C2 链利润有所改善。原料端—2024Q3 乙烷MB 价格为116.6 美元/吨，环比二季度142 美元/吨显著下滑，其中7-9 月乙烷MB 价格均值分别为114 美元/吨、104 美元/吨、131 美元/吨，但考虑到将近2 个月左右的运输周期，24 年5-7 月MB 均价为133 美元/吨，因此三季度实际原料采购价格相比二季度略有下滑，8 月份以来低价原料将在四季度体现。展望后续乙烷价格，短期由于飓风影响导致乙烷价格有所上涨，不过后续乙烷价格中枢将回归至100-150 美元区间震荡；产品端—当前乙烯成本曲线最右侧产品主要有油制烯烃路线，虽然三季度油价中枢下滑叠加需求疲软导致乙烯及下游产品价格从高位回落，不过当前看下跌空间有限，考虑到油价底部震荡及政策端利好对需求的驱动逐步兑现，化工品价格有望企稳向好。Description of the event
The company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. From January to September 2024, it achieved operating income of 32.275 billion yuan, up 0.71% year on year; net profit to mother of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year on year; net cash flow from operating activities of 5.694 billion yuan, up 24.72% year on year; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 4.088 billion yuan, up 20.48% year on year. Among them, revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was 12.875 billion yuan, up 9.89% year on year, up 21.51% month on month; net profit to mother was 1.637 billion yuan, up 2.08% year on year, up 58.36% month on month; net profit without return to mother was 1.854 billion yuan, up 28.64% year on year.
Incident comments
The price of 2024Q3 ethane fell sharply. Under the influence of oil prices, chemical prices continued to fall from July highs, and overall C2 chain profits improved. Raw material side - 2024Q3 ethane MB price was 116.6 US dollars/ton, a significant decrease from the second quarter. Among them, the average price of ethane MB in July-September was 114 US dollars/ton, 104 US dollars/ton, and 131 US dollars/ton, respectively. However, considering the transportation cycle of about 2 months, the average price of MB was 133 US dollars/ton in 5-7 years, so the actual raw material purchase price in the third quarter decreased slightly compared to the second quarter. Looking ahead to subsequent ethane prices, ethane prices will rise in the short term due to the impact of the hurricane, but the price center of ethane prices will return to the 100-150 US dollar range; product side - the products on the far right side of the ethylene cost curve mainly include oil olefins. Although the decline in oil prices in the third quarter combined with weak demand caused the prices of ethylene and downstream products to fall from a high level, there is currently limited room for decline. Considering the fluctuation at the bottom of oil prices and the gradual implementation of favorable policy demand, chemical prices are expected to stabilize and improve.
The price of 2024Q3 propane increased month-on-month, and product-side acrylic acid and ester prices improved slightly. The price of 2024Q3 propane was 655 US dollars/ton, a slight increase from the second quarter to 631 US dollars/ton. If you consider the impact of the inventory cycle of nearly 2 months, the average price was 641 US dollars/ton in 5-7 years, which is a slight decrease from month to month. From the product side, product prices continued to fall from July highs. The prices of the company's main products acrylic acid, butyl acrylate, ethyl acrylate, and hydrogen peroxide were -2.4%, -4.0%, 5.8%, and -10.1% month-on-month. In addition, the company's 0.8 million tons/year butyl alcohol plant contributed to an increase in production. According to Baichuan data, the average gross profit of n-butanol in 24Q3 was 1,300 yuan/ton.
The company's net profit for the third quarter was 1.637 billion yuan, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother reached 1.854 billion yuan, an increase of 28.64% year over year, a significant improvement over the previous month. Among the company's non-recurring profit and loss in the third quarter, the company's non-recurring profit and loss had a significant impact on profits due to the effects of the Ethylene Oxide Device Catalyst Silver leasing and changes in forward foreign exchange valuations.
The comprehensive utilization of α-olefin high-end new materials industrial park project successfully started construction, opening the company's second growth curve. The company accelerated the strategy of strengthening the C3 industrial chain, repairing and extending the chain. The first phase of the project, including adding 0.8 million tons/year of polycarbonate, was successfully put into operation in July 2024. During the reporting period, the company successfully started construction of a new high end materials industrial park project for comprehensive utilization of α-olefins in the Xuxu New Area. The total planned investment is about 26.6 billion yuan. The construction mainly includes 2.5 million tons/year α-olefin light hydrocarbon supporting raw material equipment, and extending the downstream layout of 1.7 million tons of high-end polyolefin (polyethylene containing metallocene), 0.6 million tons of polyethylene elastomers, and 0.03 million tons of polyalpha-olefin.
Without considering future changes in share capital, the company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 5.43 billion yuan, 7.69 billion yuan, and 11.54 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding to the closing price PE on October 22, 2024, the PE is 11.7X, 8.3X, and 5.5X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. The price of raw materials has risen sharply; 2. The commissioning progress of the project falls short of expectations.
