投资建议：杭州银行2024年前三季度营收及利润增速同业领先，资产质量保持平稳。公司披露中期分红方案，分红率为2024 上半年归母普通股净利润的22.6%。考虑到存量按揭利率调整及新一轮存贷款利率下调，调整公司2024-2026 年净利润增速预测为18.2%、16.7%、14.1%，对应BVPS 18.29(-0.06)、20.83(-0.18)、23.70(-0.47)元/股。考虑到近期一揽子稳经济政策密集出台，利好银行信用风险缓释和信贷需求恢复，进而推动估值修复。参考可比同业，上调目标价至16.5 元，对应2024 年0.9 倍PB，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The Bank of Hangzhou's revenue and profit growth slowed slightly in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly dragged down by negative year-on-year growth under other high non-interest basis, and asset quality remained steady. The target price was raised to 16.5 yuan, and the increase in holdings rating was maintained.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Bank of Hangzhou led the industry in revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, and asset quality remained stable. The company disclosed the mid-term dividend plan. The dividend rate was 22.6% of the net profit of common stock returned to parent for the first half of 2024. Taking into account the stock mortgage interest rate adjustment and the new round of deposit and loan interest rate cuts, the adjusted net profit growth forecast for 2024-2026 is 18.2%, 16.7%, and 14.1%, corresponding to BVPS 18.29 (-0.06), 20.83 (-0.18), and 23.70 (-0.47) yuan/share. Considering the recent intensive introduction of a package of economic stabilization policies, it is beneficial for banks to mitigate credit risk and recover credit demand, thereby promoting valuation repair. Referring to comparable peers, the target price was raised to 16.5 yuan, corresponding to 0.9 times PB in 2024, maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
2024Q1-3 revenue and profit growth slowed slightly, but the phased stabilization of interest spreads was better than expected.
24Q3 revenue increased slightly by 0.9%, with net interest income up 11.0% year over year. On the basis of a slight decrease in asset and loan growth compared to 24Q2, net interest spreads (estimated caliber) increased by 8 bps month-on-month and narrowed by 1 bps year-on-year, mainly benefiting from significant improvements in debt-side costs, but subsequent interest spreads still faced downward pressure. Despite the continued decline in handling fee revenue, the wealth management business developed steadily. At the end of 24Q3, retail AUM and Bank of China reached 575.9 billion yuan and 423.3 billion yuan respectively, up 16.8% and 13.2% from the beginning of the year. Other non-interest rates fell 20.5% year on year, dragging down revenue, mainly due to the high 23Q3 base and the increase in the bond market shock since August. Under revenue pressure, provisions continued to increase in the first half of the year, so 24Q3 profit growth slowed to 15.1%, but it was still ahead of the industry. Looking ahead to the whole year, revenue growth is expected to pick up slightly and profit growth to remain stable.
Deposit volume increased significantly in 24Q3, and the growth rate slowed down ahead of loan investment. 24Q3 loans increased 15.9% year over year and decreased year over year, but retail loan investment was marginally repaired, and the share did not decline further, and mortgages contributed 77% of retail sales growth. The deposit growth rate increased to 16.3%, and the increase in the first three quarters was 156% in the same period in 2023. Although the trend of regularization continues, the increase in the share of deposits also structurally favors improvements in debt-side costs.
The poor forward-looking indicators fluctuated slightly, but the asset quality was still at the best level in the industry. The defect rate remained flat at 0.76% at the end of 24Q3. The attention rate and overdue rate were +6bp and -1bp at the end of Q2 to 0.59% and 0.69%, respectively, mainly affected by risk fluctuations in the retail and small and micro industries. The provision coverage rate dropped slightly by 2 pct to 543% from the end of Q2, which is quite adequate. At the end of 24Q3, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 13 bps to 8.76% compared to the end of Q2. The scale growth was slightly tight.
Risk warning: Retail risk exposure exceeds expectations, and tight core capital constrains medium-term development.
