China Melt Electric (301031): Reduced equity payments released, Q3 performance exceeded expectations

投资要点

三季报业绩超预期。公司24Q1-3 营收9.7 亿元，同增27%，归母净利润1.2 亿元，同增40%，毛利率38.6%，同降2.1pct，归母净利率12.4%，同增1.1pct；其中24Q3 营收3.7 亿元，同环比+42％/+15％，归母净利润0.5 亿元，同环比+91%/+42％，毛利率39.1%，同环比-1.6/+0.4pct，归母净利率14.7%，同环比+3.8/+2.8pct。股权支付减少+规模效应释放，费用率环比大幅下降，三季报业绩超预期。

车端收入环增15-20%，Q3 毛利率环比微增。公司Q1-3 车端收入我们预计6 亿元，占比超60%，Q3 车端收入我们预计2.5 亿元，环增15-20%，受益于国内销量超预期，毛利率我们预计37%左右，环比微增。

Q1 已反应车企年降+系铜银价上涨影响，公司4 月底开展铜银套期保值，H2 价格我们预计维持稳定，并随着规模效应的释放，以及产线端降本增效，后续毛利率我们预计恢复至40%。此外，公司逐渐从熔断器转向能量保护系统，我们预计激励熔断器24-25 年维持1-2 倍增长，海外熔断器定点25-26 年放量，Efuse 持续重点布局，后续有望迎来突破。

风光储端产品竞争加剧，megepack 后续进展可期。公司Q1-3 风光储收入我们预计2.6 亿元，占比25-30%，其中Q3 风光储端收入我们预计0.9亿元，占比25%，毛利率40%，环比基本稳定。我们预计24 年国内光伏装机量同增10%+、储能装机量同增40%+，行业需求近20%。该市场竞争相对激烈，竞争对手好利科技等价格激进，我们预计公司24 年价格降幅10%+，后续推出的新方案降本空间大，且订单集中高盈利产品，预计毛利率仍可维持40%。此外，公司与tesla 持续合作，我们预计25 年供应上海megepack 工厂，储能产品预计保持高速增长。

股权支付环降60%+，规模效益带动费用率下降。公司24Q1-3 期间费用2.3 亿元，同增15%，费用率23.6%，同降2.5pct，其中Q3 期间费用0.8 亿元，同环比+8.5%/-0.5%，我们预计含股权支付1200 万元，环比下降超60%，费用率20.3%，同环比-6.2/-3.1pct；24Q1-3 经营性净现金流0.8 亿元，同降2880%，其中Q3 经营性现金流0.3 亿元，同环比-26%/-53%；24Q1-3 资本开支1 亿元，同降40%，其中Q3 资本开支0.4 亿元，同环比-45%/+47%；24Q3 末存货2.2 亿元，较年初降3.7%。

盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到下游需求超预期，我们预计24-26 年归母净利1.9/3.0/4.2 亿元（原预测1.5/2.6/4.4 亿元），同增64%/55%/40%，对应PE 36/23/16 倍，考虑到公司电力熔断器龙头地位，给予25 年30倍PE，目标价134 元，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：原材料价格波动、市场竞争加剧风险。

Key points of investment

The results of the three-quarter report exceeded expectations. The company's 24Q1-3 revenue was 0.97 billion yuan, up 27%; net profit to mother was 0.12 billion yuan, up 40%; gross profit margin was 38.6%, down 2.1pct; net profit to mother was 12.4%, up 1.1 pct; of these, 24Q3 revenue was 0.37 billion yuan, +42% YoY/+15%, net profit to mother 0.05 billion yuan, gross profit margin 39.1%, -1.6/+0.4pct, net to mother Interest rate 14.7%, +3.8/+2.8pct YoY. The reduction in equity payments+the release of scale effects, the fee rate dropped sharply from month to month, and the three-quarter results exceeded expectations.

Vehicle-side revenue increased 15-20%, and Q3 gross margin increased slightly month-on-month. We expect the company's Q1-3 car side revenue to be 0.6 billion yuan, accounting for more than 60%. We expect Q3 car side revenue to be 0.25 billion yuan, an increase of 15-20%. Benefiting from domestic sales exceeding expectations, we expect gross margin to be around 37%, a slight increase from month to month.

Q1 has already reflected the impact of the annual decline in car companies+the rise in copper and silver prices. The company launched copper and silver hedging at the end of April. We expect H2 prices to remain stable, and with the release of scale effects and cost reduction and efficiency on the production line side, we expect subsequent gross margin to return to 40%. In addition, the company is gradually shifting from fuses to energy protection systems. We expect incentive fuses to maintain 1-2 times growth in 24-25 years, target the volume of overseas fuses for 25-26 years, and Efuse continues to focus on layout, and is expected to usher in breakthroughs in the future.

Competition for wind and solar storage end products has intensified, and further progress can be expected from Megepack. We expect the company's Q1-3 wind storage revenue to be 0.26 billion yuan, accounting for 25-30%. Of these, we expect Q3 wind storage revenue to be 0.09 billion yuan, accounting for 25%, and the gross profit margin is 40%, which is basically stable from month to month. We expect domestic PV installations to increase by 10% +, energy storage capacity by 40% +, and industry demand by nearly 20% in '24. Competition in this market is relatively fierce. Competitors such as Haoli Technology are aggressive in price. We expect the company to reduce prices by 10% + in 24. There is plenty of room for cost reduction in new solutions launched later, and orders are concentrated on high-profit products. It is expected that gross margin can still be maintained at 40%. Furthermore, the company continues to cooperate with Tesla. We expect to supply the Shanghai Megepack factory for 25 years, and energy storage products are expected to maintain rapid growth.

The equity payment cycle was reduced by 60% +, and the cost ratio was reduced due to economies of scale. The company's expenses for the 24Q1-3 period were 0.23 billion yuan, an increase of 15%, an expense rate of 23.6%, and a decrease of 2.5 pct, of which the Q3 period cost was 0.08 billion yuan, +8.5%/-0.5%. We expect to include equity payments of 12 million yuan, a decrease of more than 60% month-on-month, and an expense ratio of 20.3%, -6.2/-3.1 pct compared to the same period; 24Q1-3 net operating cash flow was 0.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 2880%, of which Q3 operating cash The flow was 0.03 billion yuan, -26%/-53%; 24Q1-3 capital expenditure was 0.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 40%, of which Q3 capital expenditure was 0.04 billion yuan, -45%/+47% year over month; inventory at the end of 24Q3 was 0.22 billion yuan, down 3.7% from the beginning of the year.

Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that downstream demand exceeds expectations, we expect net profit of 0.19/0.3/0.42 billion yuan to the mother in 24-26 (0.15/0.26/0.44 billion yuan), an increase of 64%/55%/40%, corresponding to PE 36/23/16 times. Considering the company's leading position in power fuses, the target price is 134 yuan for 25 years, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Fluctuating raw material prices and market competition increase risk.

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中熔电气(301031)：股权支付减少 规模效应释放 Q3业绩超预期

China Melt Electric (301031): Reduced equity payments released, Q3 performance exceeded expectations

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

中熔电气(301031)：股权支付减少规模效应释放 Q3业绩超预期