另外，海通國際基本維持名創優品2024至2026財年收入預測，分別按年增長25%、23%及19%；經調整淨利潤預測，分別按年增長19%、24%及19%；對應經調整淨利率各自為16.2%、16.4%及16.4%。綜合上述因素，該行將名創優品目標價定於25.3美元，維持「優於大市」評級。Haitong International released a research report stating that it is expected that Miniso (MNSO.US) will have a third quarter revenue of 4.57 billion Chinese Yuan in the fiscal year 2024, an annual increase of 20%; adjusted net profit of 0.71 billion Yuan, an annual increase of 10%, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%. The bank mentioned that in the forecast for Miniso's mainland business in the third quarter, the revenue is expected to be 2.47 billion Yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, slightly lower than the previous low double-digit forecast, mainly due to lower-than-expected performance in September at existing stores, with an expected opening of approximately 110 new stores during the period.
In terms of the forecast for Miniso's overseas business in the third quarter, the revenue is expected to be 1.81 billion Yuan, a 40% year-on-year increase. Among them, the self-operated market is expected to grow by 55% year-on-year, in line with the previous 50% to 60% growth forecast; the agency market is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year, showing improvement from the previous two quarters, mainly benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment demand, as well as the release of backlog orders caused by previous fluctuations in shipping costs, with the expected opening of approximately 180 new stores during the period, the highest in historical comparisons, of which about 75 are self-operated stores.
Haitong International also expects Miniso's gross margin in the third quarter to be 44%, an annual increase of 2.3 percentage points, remaining relatively stable monthly, mainly driven by the proportion of overseas self-operated market revenue and the improvement in the gross margin of 'TOP TOY'; the adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 15.5%, a 1.4 percentage points decrease annually, remaining relatively stable monthly.
In addition, Haitong International basically maintains the revenue forecasts for Miniso for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026, with annual growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 19% respectively; adjusted net profit forecasts showing annual growth rates of 19%, 24%, and 19% respectively; corresponding adjusted net profit margins are 16.2%, 16.4%, and 16.4% respectively. Considering the above factors, the bank has set Miniso's target price at $25.3, maintaining an 'outperform' rating.
