国内方面，2024Q3公司零售门店收入同比增长30-35%（2024H1为+25%）；机器人门店收入同比增长20-25%（2024H1为+16%）；抽盒机收入同比增长55%-60%（2024H1为+7%）；电商及其他线上平台整体收入同比增长135-140%，其中抖音渠道增长115-120%（2024H1为+91%），天猫旗舰店增长155-160%（2024H1为+28%）；批发及其他渠道收入同比增长45-50%（2024H1为+91%）。线上抽盒机及电商渠道增速亮眼。Guotai Junan Securities released a report stating an increase in profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992), expecting the company's net income for 2024-2026 to be 2.7/3.59/4.54 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.01/2.68/3.38 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating. Based on the latest business performance in the third quarter of 2024 as per the company announcement, the bank predicts a year-on-year revenue growth of 120-125% in 2024Q3, with domestic business revenue increasing by 55-60% and overseas business revenue increasing by 440-445%.
The major viewpoints of Open source Securities are as follows:
Domestic channels: All channels maintain high growth, with impressive growth in vending machines, Tmall, Douyin, and other channels.
Domestically, in 2024Q3, the company's retail store revenue is expected to increase by 30-35% (compared to +25% in 2024H1); robot store revenue to increase by 20-25% (compared to +16% in 2024H1); blind box machine revenue to increase by 55-60% (compared to +7% in 2024H1); overall revenue from e-commerce and other online platforms to increase by 135-140%, with Douyin channel growing by 115-120% (compared to +91% in 2024H1), Tmall flagship store growing by 155-160% (compared to +28% in 2024H1); wholesale and other channels revenue to increase by 45-50% (compared to +91% in 2024H1). Impressive growth in online blind box machines and e-commerce channels.
The bank predicts the following: (1) The company's performance on Douyin and Tmall Super Brand Day is outstanding. (2) Recovery of offline traffic in 2023Q3 sharing the online traffic, resulting in a lower base for online income during the same period. (3) SKULLPANDA Sound Series released in June, new IPs such as Star Man are performing well. According to Jiurui Data, as of October 2024, Pop Mart has 457 domestic retail stores (an increase of 24 stores from 2024H1). The bank is bullish on the company's future prospects, focusing on blind boxes as the main offline line, rapid expansion of plush rubber products, various new formats (building blocks, cards, etc.) as effective supplements, expecting sustained high revenue growth performance in 2025.
Overseas channels: Expansion accelerating, approaching the peak consumption season, promising annual income.
The overseas business revenue of the company in 2024Q3 is expected to grow by 440%-445% (259.6% growth rate in 2024H1). Regarding overseas stores, according to statistics from Pop Mart's official website, the current total number of overseas Pop Mart stores is 113 (an increase of 23 stores from 2024H1), with the number of stores in East Asia/Southeast Asia/Europe/Australia/North America being 48/26/10/13/16 respectively.
In terms of overseas online aspects, based on FastMoss data, TikTok sales revenue in the USA reaches 11.89 million USD (approximately 84.7 million yuan), and in Thailand, sales revenue reaches 0.84 billion Thai Baht (approximately 0.18 billion yuan). The bank is optimistic about the company's continuous expansion of overseas offline stores (with a focus on North America) and accelerated development of online e-commerce channels (Amazon, TikTok, etc.), believing that the traditional consumption peak season in Europe and America is approaching in 2024Q4, along with Christmas promotions and Amazon Prime.
Activities such as Day are expected to continue to exceed expectations for the company's overseas revenue in the full year of 2024.
