Q3 海陆齐头并进，海上业务交付加速：三季度公司海缆系统及海洋工程实现营收12.3 亿元，同比增长64.5%，预计主要受下游海风项目加速开工影响；陆缆系统实现营收13.9 亿元，同比增长53.1%。2024 年前三个季度海缆系统及海洋工程实现营收30.0 亿元，同比提升14.9%，陆缆系统营收36.9 亿元，同比提升35.0%。Brief performance review
On October 23, 2024, the company disclosed its three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and net profit to mother of 0.932 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4% over the previous year. Among them, Q3 revenue was 2.63 billion yuan, up 58.3% year on year, down 4.6% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.288 billion yuan, up 40.3% year on year, down 24.4% month on month.
Management analysis
Q3. Land and sea went hand in hand, and offshore business delivery accelerated: in the third quarter, the company's submarine cable system and offshore engineering achieved revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, an increase of 64.5% over the previous year, which is expected to be mainly affected by the accelerated commencement of downstream seabreeze projects; the land cable system achieved revenue of 1.39 billion yuan, an increase of 53.1% year on year. Submarine cable systems and offshore engineering achieved revenue of 3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 14.9% year on year, and land cable system revenue of 3.69 billion yuan, up 35.0% year on year.
Ongoing land cable orders increased slightly month-on-month, and submarine cable orders are expected to gradually rise: as of October 18, the company's on-hand orders were about 9.24 billion yuan, up 3.7% from August. By business, submarine cable orders were 2.95 billion yuan, flat month-on-month; land cable orders were 4.89 billion yuan, up 8.1% month-on-month; marine engineering orders were 1.4 billion yuan, down 2.5% month-on-month. Recently, the company won the bid for the first 500kV submarine cable and installation project for the Fanshiyi Sea Wind Project in Yangjiang, Guangdong, with a project value of about 0.93 billion yuan. Looking ahead, as the “14th Five-Year Plan” comes to an end, the seabreeze marine use problem in Guangdong and Jiangsu is gradually resolved, the progress of domestic seabreeze projects is expected to accelerate, and the company's submarine cable order volume is expected to gradually increase.
The cost ratio declined slightly during the period, and contract liabilities increased significantly from month to month: the company's expense ratio for the third quarter was 6.82%, down 0.78pct year on year. Among them, sales/management/R&D expenses rates were 2.09%/1.07%/3.66%, respectively, and +0.02/-0.63/-0.17pct year on year. By the end of the third quarter, the company's contract debt was 0.859 billion yuan, an increase of 194% over the previous year and an increase of 162% over the previous year. The company's on-hand orders are expected to be delivered at an accelerated pace in the context of the acceleration of downstream seabreeze projects.
Actively promoting the company's ESG construction, overseas order acquisition is expected to benefit. The company discloses the “Company ESG Management Measures” to improve the quality of the company's operations and management, and will regularly disclose ESG reports. The company is actively building an ESG system in the context of a continuous increase in overseas revenue, which is expected to strengthen the trust of overseas customers, raise the level of international competition, and benefit from subsequent overseas order acquisition.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
According to the company's three-quarter report and our latest judgment on the industry, the 2024-2026 net profit forecast was adjusted to 1.24, 1.8, and 2.26 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 32, 22, and 17 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The risk of fluctuations in raw material prices and the risk of a slowdown in industrial investment due to offshore wind power policies.
