The company released three quarterly reports: achieved revenue of 9.919 billion yuan in the first three quarters, or -16.86% year on year; realized net profit of 0.217 billion yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit; and realized net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.135 billion yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit. The company achieved revenue of 3.444 billion yuan in 24Q3, +2.20% month-on-month; 24Q3 achieved net profit of 0.185 billion yuan and Q3 +150.99% month-on-month, mainly due to the relatively stable profit of the pre-baked anode business during the reporting period. At the same time, due to the early return of corresponding shares by the performance committer, it was confirmed that fair value change income was about 0.16 billion yuan; 24Q3 achieved net profit of 0.023 billion yuan, mainly during the reporting period The negative electrode business lost approximately 0.066 billion yuan.

Pre-baked anode production capacity and production and sales data: In the first half of this year, Shandong Innovation Phase II's 0.34 million ton pre-baked anode project was officially put into operation, and the company's annual pre-baked anode production capacity was further increased to 3.16 million tons; in the second half of this year, Longxi Suotong's 0.3 million ton aluminum carbon material project was gradually put into operation. The company is expected to have a production capacity of 3.46 million tons by the end of 2024. Pre-baked anode production capacity remained at full capacity in the first half of this year, with an output of 1.5687 million tons, or +7.75%; it is expected that pre-baked anode production capacity will remain at full capacity in the second half of the year, and the annual output may reach 3.2 million tons or more.

The construction of the company's new projects is also progressing steadily. Among them, Longxi Suotong's 0.3 million ton aluminum carbon material project has been tested for oven production, and Hubei Suotong's 1 million ton post-calcined coke project has been partially calcined for trial production. In addition, the company and Geely Bai Mining signed an investment clause list for the pre-baked anode project with an annual output of 0.6 million tons in Guangxi, and related work is being actively promoted; the company signed a relevant investment agreement with the Lusigang Economic Development Zone Management Committee and Huafeng Group on the pre-baked anode project for aluminum with an annual output of 0.3 million tons in Qidong, Jiangsu. In overseas markets, the company's joint venture project with UAE Global Aluminum (EGA) is also progressing steadily, and phased progress has been made; the company has also signed sales framework agreements with three subsidiaries under Alcoa America to supply them with a total of 0.24 million tons of pre-baked anodes in 2025.

Risk warning: The project construction progress did not meet expectations, and the production and sales volume of project products did not meet expectations.

Investment advice: Maintain an “better than the market” rating.

The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 134.94/189.45/238.15 billion yuan (original forecast 139.56/189.71/238.50), respectively; year-on-year growth rate -11.9%/40.4%/25.7%; net profit to mother is 3.81/9.28/11.86 (original forecast 4.19/9.21/11.80) billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 252.8%/143.5%/27.8%; diluted EPS is 0.70/1.72/2.19 yuan, respectively The current stock price corresponds to PE 18/7/6X. We believe that the company has achieved a very obvious competitive advantage in the field of pre-baked anodes, and is expected to seize the domestic “move southward” strategic opportunity period to achieve rapid expansion of production capacity. At the same time, the overseas market layout is gradually being launched, and there is plenty of room for growth in the future; maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.