(continuously updating...)

Rising US debt and deficit risks have forced the US government to issue a large amount of bonds in the tight funding market before the election. At the same time, the strong performance of the US economy, combined with weakening expectations for Fed rate cuts and market concerns over future rate cuts related to the 'Trumpflation', have caused the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise by 55 basis points in the past three weeks, reaching 4.26%, while the US dollar index also approached 104.6, hitting a three-month high. The rising US dollar and US Treasury yields have put pressure on European and American stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and non-US currencies.

Although the Fed's Beige Book showed a slight dovish tone on the economic situation during trading hours, the US economy is still slowing down, with inflation remaining modest. This led to a small recovery in US stocks, but failed to rescue the slump. The Nasdaq fell by more than 2% at one point, leading the decline.

In Europe, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that due to inflation falling faster than expected, the Bank of England may cut rates again in November, with further observation of the economic situation, and may also cut rates in December. If inflation continues to improve, the rate cut by the Bank of England could be 'more aggressive'. However, some policymakers are opposed to aggressive rate cuts, as they are concerned that tight labor market conditions may lead to inflationary pressure. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene is more inclined to lower rates in a 'cautious, gradual manner'.

Wednesday, October 23rd, US stocks all fell:

• US stocks dropped across the board. The S&P 500 index fell by 53.78 points, or 0.92%, to 5797.42 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, fell by 409.94 points, or 0.96%, to 42514.95 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by technology stocks, fell by 296.48 points, or 1.60%, to 18276.65 points. The Nasdaq 100 index fell by 1.55%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap-weighted index (NDXTMC) tracking the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks fell by 1.89%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, fell by 0.79%. The VIX fear index rose by 5.71% to 19.24.

• Most US industry ETFs closed lower. Utility ETFs rose by nearly 1%, global aviation ETFs rose by less than 0.5%. However, consumer discretionary ETFs, internet index ETFs, and global technology stock ETFs all fell by over 1.5%, technology industry ETFs, biotechnology index ETFs, and semiconductor ETFs each fell by at least 1%, energy sector ETFs and healthcare ETFs each fell by around 0.5%.

• The 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index declined more than they rose. The consumer discretionary sector fell by 1.82%, the information technology/technology sector fell by 1.68%, the telecommunications sector fell by 1.37%, the energy sector fell by 0.48%, the healthcare sector fell by 0.46%, the materials sector fell by 0.35%, the industrial sector fell by 0.30%, the consumer staples sector fell by 0.12%, the financial sector fell by 0.12%, the utilities sector rose by 1.01%, and the real estate sector rose by 1.02%.
• The 'Big Seven Sisters of Technology' all fell. Tesla closed down 1.98%, with a 9% increase in third-quarter EPS, Cybertruck turning a positive gross margin for the first time, and rising more than 9.7% after hours. Apple, after falling by over 3.4%, closed down by 2.16%. Reports indicate a significant reduction in Vision Pro headset production, with analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stating a decrease in iPhone 16 orders of around 10 million units. Nvidia closed down 2.81%, Amazon down 2.63%, Google down 1.43%, Meta (formerly known as Facebook) down 3.15%, and Microsoft down 0.68%.
• Most chip stocks declined. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 1.14% to 5131.37 points. The SOXX industry ETF fell by 0.89%; Nvidia's two times long ETF fell by 5.61%. AMD fell by 0.77%, Intel by 1.88%, Broadcom by 3.27%, Micron Technology by 2.57%, Applied Materials by 0.16%, KLA Corp by 0.81%, Qualcomm by 3.8%, Arm Holdings by 6.67%, ASML holding ADR by 1.7%, while Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose by 1.2% and ON Semiconductor rose by 2.15%.
• AI concept stocks collectively declined. BullFrog AI closed down 1.77%, SoundHound AI, in which Nvidia is a shareholder, fell by 5.5%, BigBear.ai fell by 6.43%, C3.ai fell by 3.17%, CrowdStrike fell by 2.99%, Dell Technologies fell by 0.76%, Snowflake fell by 1.64%, Super Micro Computer fell by 1.33%, Serve Robotics fell by 6.51%, Oracle fell by 1.26%, and Palantir fell by 0.82%.
• Most Chinese concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.2%. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) fell by 1.85%, the Chinese internet concept ETF (KWEB) fell by 1.38%, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 0.98%, the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) rose by 0.85%. The 'Chinese Dragon' ETF RONDHL CHINA ETF (DRAG) fell by 0.45%. The FTSE A50 index futures continued to fall by 0.68% in overnight trading, closing at 13565.000 points.
• Other key individual stocks: (1) McDonald's (MCD) closed down by 5.12%, leading the Dow component stocks lower. (2) Lam Research (LRCX) reported first-quarter adjusted EPS, revenue, and performance guidance higher than expected, rising more than 5.7% after hours. (3) Las Vegas Sands reported third-quarter revenue below expectations, announced a $2 billion share buyback, and rose by over 3.6% after declining by 2% in post-market trading. (4) Kaiser Aluminum reported third-quarter revenue of $0.748 billion, lower than analyst expectations, and expressed caution about the short-term outlook, falling by over 1.1% after hours. (5) IBM's third-quarter revenue of $14.97 billion fell short of analysts' expectations, dropping by over 7.6% after hours. (6) Most solar concept stocks fell, with SolarEdge down by 14.99% and photovoltaic inverter supplier Enphase Energy down by 14.92%.

The US dollar rose to its highest level since the end of July, with US EIA crude oil inventories increasing more than expected, putting pressure on oil prices. US oil slid more than 1.3%, ending two days of consecutive gains. Investors continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Despite Wednesday's oil price decline, US oil rose by over 2.2% this week:

• US Oil: WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.97, a 1.35% drop, at $70.77 per barrel. US oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with European stocks at their lowest falling by over 2.2%, putting pressure below $70.
• Crude oil: Brent crude oil futures for December fell by $1.08, a decrease of 1.42%, to $74.96 per barrel. Crude oil maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with European stocks falling more than 2.1% to pressure below $74.40.
• On the news front, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.474 million barrels last week, with Bloomberg users expecting an increase of 1.8 million barrels and analysts expecting an increase of 0.72867 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 2.191 million barrels the previous week. According to CCTV News, sources said that Israel is considering a two-week ceasefire with Hamas. The Israeli security cabinet has discussed this proposal, but has not yet approved it. It is currently unclear whether Hamas is willing to accept the ceasefire proposal. According to Xinhua News Agency, Hezbollah in Lebanon has stated on the 22nd that they will continue to attack Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During the ongoing conflict, Hezbollah will not negotiate with Israel and attacks on Israel are increasing, causing 'significant losses' to the Israeli army. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong stated that it is expected that the ceasefire agreement may stall and the Middle East conflict could last longer.
• Natural gas: NYMEX November natural gas futures closed up 1.34% at $2.3420 per million British thermal units.

Supported by safe-haven demand triggered by the US election and tensions in the Middle East, spot gold approached $2,760 intraday, hitting a historical high for five consecutive days. Subsequently, the rise in the US dollar and US bond yields led to a reversal in the upward trend of precious metals. Spot gold dropped 1.2% in late trading, struggling to hold above $2,700, while spot silver fell over 3%, bidding farewell to its highest level in twelve years.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell by 1.09% to $2,729.70 per ounce at the close, rising to $2,772.60 per ounce intraday to hit a historical high, then quickly fell to a daily low of $2,722.10. In early European trading, spot gold rose more than 0.3% to $2,758.49, hitting a historical high, then sharply reversed. In early US trading, it fell nearly 1.5% to approach $2,700, ending the session down 1.21% at $2,715.82 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures fell by 3.28% at the close, to $33.890 per ounce. Spot silver maintained a downward trend throughout the day, with early US trading seeing a drop of nearly 4.1% to approach $33.40, ending the session down 3.32% at $33.6990 per ounce.

• Regarding the news, RJO Futures senior market strategist Haberkorn stated that due to some investors taking profits and the trend of rising US bond yields, the increase in the price of gold is limited. However, due to safe-haven demand, gold prices could rise to $2,800 per ounce this weekend. Both the US dollar index and US bond yields hovering near a three-month high have suppressed gold prices. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that due to uncertainty in the US election and increased US debt burden, they had to issue billions of dollars in bonds to the market, which is relatively thin and tense towards the election. Kinesis Money report indicates that the current gold/silver ratio is around 80, implying that as gold prices rise, silver tends to benefit as well.
• London industrial metals saw mixed movements: London copper fell by $62, a decrease of over 0.64%, to $9,522 per ton. London aluminum rose by $36, up more than 1.36%, to $2,670 per ton. London zinc rose by $6, to $3,144 per ton. London lead fell by $6, to $2,063 per ton. London nickel fell by $8, to $16,308 per ton. London tin fell by $1, to $30,906 per ton, while London cobalt remained flat at $24,300 per ton.
• COMEX copper futures fell by 1.08%, to $4.3330 per pound.

The following is the update content before 22:00 on October 23rd Beijing time.

The U.S. economy remains resilient, combined with the risks of U.S. debt and deficits, causing the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise by 3 basis points to 4.23%, reaching the highest level since July, and the rate hike is putting pressure on U.S. stocks.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks and bonds plunged together. The S&P has fallen for three consecutive days, with component stocks such as McDonald's and Starbucks falling dragging the Dow down by nearly 300 points at one point.

• Major U.S. stock indices fell across the board: the S&P 500 index fell by over 0.5% at one point. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, fell by nearly 0.7% or 299 points at one point. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by over 2% at one point. The Russell 2000 fell by over 0.6% at one point. The Nasdaq 100 fell by over 0.9% at one point.

• In early U.S. stock trading, most major industry ETFs trended lower, with consumer discretionary ETFs and gold ETFs leading the decline.

• Most of the 'Tech Seven Sisters' declined. Nvidia fell by over 3.7% at one point, Apple fell by nearly 0.9% at one point, with reports suggesting a significant production cut for Apple's VR headset Vision Pro, which may completely cease production of the current version by the end of the year. Amazon fell by nearly 1.4% at one point, Tesla initially rose by over 0.3% before falling by nearly 1.2%, Google A fell by over 0.7% at one point, 'metaverse' company Meta fell by nearly 1.1% at one point, while Microsoft rose by over 0.8% at one point.

• Chip stocks collectively fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 1% at one point, while Nvidia's double long ETF fell more than 7% at one point. Arm Holdings once fell over 6.4%, Qualcomm over 3.2%, Micron Technology over 2.7%, ASML Holding ADR over 2%, AMD nearly 1.9%, Broadcom nearly 1.7%, Intel over 1.2%, while ON Semiconductor rose more than 4.7% at one point.

• AI concept stocks had mixed performance. SoundHound AI, a company held by Nvidia, fell more than 4.9% at one point, BigBear.ai fell over 3.5%, C3.ai fell over 2.6%, CrowdStrike fell over 2.4%, Super Micro Computer fell over 2%, while Oracle rose over 0.4% at one point, BullFrog AI rose over 7.2%, Serve Robotics rose over 5.5%.

• China concept stocks saw a slight decline. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially rose nearly 0.6% before falling nearly 0.7%. Among the popular China concept stocks, New Oriental fell over 8.5% at one point, Tiger Brokers fell over 8%, Baidu fell over 1.9%, Alibaba fell over 1.8%, Pinduoduo initially fell over 2.3% before cutting losses, while Li Auto rose nearly 6.8% at one point, Miniso rose over 5%, Meituan ADR rose nearly 6%, Xpeng rose over 3.7%, Trip.com rose over 2.1%, JD rose over 2% at one point.
• In other key stocks: (1) Coca-Cola's Q3 revenue outperformed expectations, offsetting the impact of weak demand, raising full-year revenue guidance, with the stock falling over 4.1% before cutting losses. (2) Donald Trump concept stocks rose, with Phunware rising over 25.4% at one point, Trump Media & Technology Group rising over 6.9%. (3) McDonald's fell about 7%, marking the largest decline since March 2020 due to severe E. coli infections in multiple McDonald's locations in the USA, leading to 10 hospitalizations and 1 death.

【Updates before 22:00】

The cooling of the Fed rate cut expectations led to a simultaneous decline in US stocks and bonds overnight, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising for three consecutive days, breaking through 4.2% today to reach a three-month high.

US stocks opened lower today, with the Dow down 0.6%, the Nasdaq down 0.43%, and the S&P down 0.33%. Starbucks fell about 2%, with disappointing third-quarter results and a delay in releasing fourth-quarter guidance; McDonald's fell about 6% due to severe E. coli infections in multiple US locations; Qualcomm fell about 1% amid reports that Arm proposed canceling Qualcomm's license to use its intellectual property to design chips.

Donald Trump concept stocks rose, with Phunware up around 22%. Most China concept stocks rose, with Daqo New Energy up around 9%, New Oriental down over 5%.

Asia-Pacific stock markets mixed, with the Seoul Composite Index in South Korea up 1.1%; the Nikkei 225 Index in Japan down 0.8%, and on the first day of listing, Tokyo Metro surged over 40%, marking the largest IPO for Japanese stocks in six years. European markets collectively declined, with the Eurozone STOXX50 Index falling more than 0.5%.

The current global bond market sell-off trend has not completely subsided, as US bond yields are generally rising, with the 40-year Japanese government bond yield briefly rising to its highest level in 16 years.

Spot gold rose above $2750 during trading, reaching a new historical high; international oil prices fell.

• US stocks opened lower, with the Dow down 0.6%, the Nasdaq down 0.43%, and the S&P 500 down 0.33%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Daqo New Energy up about 9%, but New Oriental dropped more than 5%. Donald Trump concept stocks rose, with Phunware up about 22%.
• Asia-Pacific stock markets are mixed. The Seoul Composite Index in South Korea rose by 1.1%, the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.8%, and on the first day of listing, Tokyo Metro surged over 40%, marking the largest IPO for Japanese stocks in six years.
• European markets collectively declined, with the Eurozone STOXX50 Index falling more than 0.5%.
• US bond yields are rising. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen for three consecutive days, breaking above 4.2% today to reach a three-month high.
• The yen to dollar exchange rate has fallen to nearly a three-month low, now trading at 153.
• Spot gold rose above $2750 per ounce during the session, hitting a new record high, now trading at $2732.51 per ounce; international oil prices fell.

[21:40 Update]

Boeing fell by about 3%, dragged down by problematic projects, with Boeing's Q3 staggering loss of $6 billion, the largest since 2020.

McDonald's stock opened down by 6.22%, marking the largest drop since March 2020.

Spot gold declined and is now trading at $2732.51 per ounce.

【21:35 Update】

US stocks open lower, with the Dow falling 0.6%, the Nasdaq falling 0.43%, and the S&P falling 0.33%.

Starbucks fell about 2%, with the company's third-quarter report disappointing and temporarily delaying the release of fourth-quarter guidance; McDonald's fell about 7%, with serious E. coli infections reported at many McDonald's locations in the United States; Qualcomm fell about 1%, with reports that Arm has proposed to cancel Qualcomm's license to use Arm intellectual property to design chips; Coca-Cola fell about 4%, after the company announced third-quarter financial report.

Donald Trump concept stocks are rising, with Phunware up about 22%.

Most China concept stocks are up, with Daqo New Energy up about 9%, New Oriental down over 5%, after the company previously released first quarter financial report.

[21:11 Update]

Spot silver fell more than 2% intraday, now trading at $34.14 per ounce.

[19:05 update]

Before the US stock market opened, the three major index futures all fell. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Li Auto up over 5% and New Oriental down more than 2%.

European markets as a whole are declining, with the Eurozone STOXX50 index falling by more than 0.5%.

Oil prices are falling, with both Brent and WTI crude oil dropping by 2%.

The current yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is reported at 4.226%.

[Update at 17:44]

The Japanese yen fell more than 1% against the US dollar to 152.74.

【16:40 Update】

Pre-market trading in Trump concept stocks in the US continues to rise, with Phunware up more than 22%, closing up over 38% overnight; Trump Media Technology Group rose more than 3%, closing up nearly 10% overnight.

【16:10 Update】

Pre-market trading Starbucks fell nearly 5%, with the company's poor third-quarter report and a temporary postponement of fourth-quarter guidance release.

McDonald's fell nearly 6%, serious E. coli infection incidents occurred in many McDonald's locations in the United States.

Spirit Airlines rose by nearly 20%. According to The Wall Street Journal, Spirit Airlines is in preliminary discussions to resume merger talks with Frontier, and the negotiations are at an early stage.

Qualcomm fell more than 5%, reporting that Arm has proposed to cancel Qualcomm's license to use Arm's intellectual property to design chips.

[15:45 Update]

US stock index futures slightly lower, Dow futures down nearly 0.3%.

European major stock indices opened slightly lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index opening down 0.41%, the Germany DAX index down 0.3%, the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.17%, and the France CAC 40 index down 0.44%.

Mixed performance in the Asia-Pacific stock market, with the Seoul composite index in South Korea closing up 1.1%; the Nikkei 225 index closing down 0.8%, and Tokyo Metro's first day of trading rising 42%, marking the largest IPO in six years for Japanese stocks.

Tokyo Metro's stock price soared by 47% at one point during trading, opening at 1630 Japanese yen, reaching a peak of 1768 Japanese yen, well above the 1200 Japanese yen IPO price, with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion Japanese yen at one point. It finally closed at 1739 Japanese yen, a 42% increase from the issue price.

US bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year variety staying at a high level of 4.23%.

Emerging market bonds continue to decline, with bond yields in Indonesia and South Africa on the rise.

Spot gold rose above $2750 during the trading session, hitting a new historical high. UBS stated that the bullish sentiment for gold is strong, with the next target at $2900, and any pullbacks would be shallow and short-lived.

International oil prices edged down slightly.