Finance Associated Press reported on October 23rd (Reporter: Hu Haoqiong) that this year's civil aviation winter and spring season will start on October 27th, with a slight year-on-year decrease in the weekly planned flight volume of civil aviation. At the "2024 North Bund International Shipping Forum · North Bund International Aviation Forum" held yesterday, Finance Associated Press reporters learned that the global civil aviation industry is currently showing new characteristics, including falling ticket prices, a decrease in business travel proportion, rapid development of low-cost airlines, and a diversified recovery in the international market. According to the forecast data for this year's winter and spring aviation season, the characteristics of a year-on-year decline in ticket prices are also reflected.

In the new season, the domestic weekly planned flight volume decreased by 0.9% year-on-year.

According to data provided by Flight Manager, during this winter and spring season, the weekly planned flight volume of civil aviation passenger transportation (excluding foreign airlines) will reach 0.127 million flights, a 0.6% year-on-year decrease. Among them, the domestic weekly planned flight volume decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, while international flights increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the flights to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan region decreased by 13% year-on-year.

Regarding airports, the platform data shows that there are 41 domestic airports with millions of level flights, with a weekly arrival and departure of 0.184 million flights, a 1.4% decrease compared to the winter and spring season of 2023. The arrival and departure movements account for 77.8% of the total domestic airport movements, a 0.4 percentage point decrease compared to the previous year.

When looking at the year-on-year decrease in the weekly planned flight volume of civil aviation passenger transportation for the entire winter and spring season, Associate Professor Zhang Zhipeng from the Department of Transportation Engineering at Shanghai Jiaotong University's Shipbuilding College told Finance Associated Press reporters that based on the data, airlines are also seeking the most suitable scale of capacity deployment to avoid excess capacity leading to lower passenger load factors.

"The biggest feature of the winter and spring season is the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, but it also includes the low season of the fourth quarter. For airlines, seizing opportunities during the holiday season, improving revenue through flexible fare adjustments and route optimization, is a key point for revenue enhancement. At the same time, in terms of promotional measures, adopting relevant sales strategies and diversified flight product packages during peak consumption seasons like Singles' Day and Double Twelve will also benefit airlines." said Zhang Zhipeng.

Zhao Nan, General Manager of the Aviation & Travel Industry Development Department, stated that based on passenger travel demand, it is expected that ice and snow tourism in regions such as Harbin and xinjiang, as well as winter getaway tourism in Sanya and Haikou, will become the main theme of tourism. Airlines will increase flight capacity to popular winter tourism cities according to passenger travel demand to ensure smooth passenger travel.

The global civil aviation industry is showing five major new trends.

From the situation since this year, Liang Nan, Deputy Director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China and member of the party group, stated at the meeting that the international flights at the Shanghai International Aviation Hub have recovered to 95% of the pre-epidemic level, 7 percentage points higher than the national average.

In terms of airports, passenger flow has significantly recovered. Qin Yun, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the Shanghai Airport Group, stated that in the first three quarters of this year, the passenger flow at the two Shanghai airports reached 93 million, a 34% year-on-year increase. The daily passenger flow hit a historic high, with cargo volume reaching 3.07 million tons, a 12% increase year-on-year. The number of inbound and outbound passenger flow increased significantly by over 25 million, a 112% year-on-year growth.

According to Jia Jianqing, General Manager of the Capital Airport Group, the company expects to achieve a passenger throughput of 0.24 billion this year, with both Beijing airports achieving 0.11 billion passengers. By 2025, passenger throughput is expected to reach 0.26 billion, a 15% growth compared to 2019 (same period).

In terms of civil aviation, one of the new characteristics of the civil aviation industry this year is the completion of the three major airlines by the C919. Li Ye, member of the party group and deputy general manager of China Eastern Airlines Corporation, revealed that the C919 will become the main aircraft model of China Eastern Airlines. As of the end of September this year, the China Eastern Airlines' C919 has been in service for 492 days, with a total of 4288 safe take-offs and landings, flying 11151 hours, and carrying a total of 0.58 million passengers. Currently, the average passenger load factor of China Eastern Airlines' C919 routes has reached 82.7%, higher than other models on the same routes. Flight punctuality and daily utilization rates are steadily improving, and operational economic performance indicators such as fuel consumption levels are close to international standards for similar aircraft.

Overall, Wang Changshun, Chairman of the China Air Transport Association and Secretary of the party committee, analyzed that the current global civil aviation development mainly presents the following new features:

One is the decline in ticket prices. In the first half of this year, air ticket prices in the United States fell by 9% year-on-year. In China, the aviation market, combined with the competition from high-speed rail, has caused air ticket prices to drop to historic lows, with price wars extending from domestic to international markets, one of the reasons leading to the exit of some foreign airlines from the Chinese market.

Secondly, the proportion of business travelers has decreased. In the first three quarters of this year, weekend passenger traffic in the United States, mainly leisure travelers, increased by 10%. A new trend of leisure travel is emerging. The proportion of business travel on domestic routes in China has dropped by three percentage points, while leisure travel has increased by 2.7 percentage points.

Third, the rapid development of low-cost airlines, such as India's IndiGo Airlines, Ireland's Ryanair, have surpassed the flight volume of 2019 by 40%. The domestic market share of large network airlines in the USA has dropped from 73% in 2000 to 52% in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, revenue and net income of Spring Airlines increased by 22.97% and 62.28% respectively compared to the same period last year, leading in domestic economic benefits.

Fourth, the recovery of the international market is becoming more distinct. In the first eight months of this year, the number of international air passengers in the USA increased by 11% to 0.184 billion compared to last year, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the same period in 2019. Passengers on international routes between the USA and Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Italy, and other countries increased by 25% compared to the same period in 2019. Currently, China's international routes have recovered to about 90% of the level in the same period of 2019, and it is expected to return to the level of the same period in 2019 by the first half of next year, except for a few routes.

Fifth, the acceleration of digital transformation, green enhancement, and intelligent operation.

It is worth mentioning that the characteristics of falling ticket prices mentioned earlier can also be seen in this year's winter and spring flight season. According to Flight Master's data, the average ticket price (excluding taxes) for domestic flights in the first month of the new flight season (October 27th to November 30th) fell by about 12% compared to last year.