Incident Overview

The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 230.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, achieved net profit of 24.357 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.68%, and realized net profit withheld from non-mother of 23.747 billion yuan, an increase of 56.16% year-on-year, all of which reached record highs in the previous three quarters. In terms of single-quarter results, 2024Q3 achieved operating income of 79.98 billion yuan, up 7.11% year on year, 5.74% month on month, achieved net profit of 9.273 billion yuan, up 58.17% year on year, up 5.09% month on month, and realized net profit without return to mother of 8.314 billion yuan, an increase of 49.75% year on year and a decrease of 9.71% month on month.

The volume and price of major mineral products have risen sharply, and high profit flexibility continues to be unleashed. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's mine production of gold/copper/zinc/silver was 54.27 tons/0.7895 million tons/0.3097 million tons/331.11 tons, respectively, +8.33%/+4.67%/-4.18%/+6.69%, completing 73.83%/71.12%/65.90%/78.84% of the 2024 production guidelines; mine production gold (gold ingots, gold concentrate), mine copper (copper concentrate, electrolytic copper), mine zinc, mining silver The average sales unit price was 503.34 yuan/gram, 0.0582 million/ton, 0.0143 million/ton, and 4.59 yuan/gram, respectively, +25.53%/+13.86%/+21.98%/+32.66%, respectively; gross margin was 54.47%/61.24%/39.90%/59.74%, respectively, up 8.58/5.20/17.34/9.02 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin of mining enterprises was 57.71%, an increase of 7.42 percentage points over the previous year; the comprehensive gross margin was 19.53%, an increase of 4.37 percentage points over the previous year. The company fully benefited from the dividends brought by the high prices of metals such as gold and copper, effectively controlled costs and increased efficiency, and improved performance. We believe that gold and copper prices are still expected to rise in the future. Under the guidance of the company's five-year production plan, the company's production of gold, copper and other mineral products will gradually increase, the growth path is clear, and the performance is expected to grow steadily.

The Akyem gold mine was acquired, and the overseas resource allocation was further strengthened. The company plans to acquire 100% interest in the Akyem gold mine project in Ghana for 1 billion US dollars through Jinyuan International Holdings Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned overseas subsidiary. The Akyem gold mine has 54.4 tons of gold resources (excluding reserves), with an average grade of 3.36 g/ton; reserves are about 34.6 tons, with an average grade of 1.35 g/ton; in addition, about 83 tons of gold are classified as land mining resource reserves. The company believes that the mine has good potential for development, utilization and exploration. Under current and anticipated future gold prices, the resource reserves that can be used in the project still have great potential. The acquisition of this project is of great significance in achieving Zijin Mining's proposed production of more than 100 tons by 2028.

Investment advice

The company's copper and gold sector business is expanding rapidly, and copper and gold prices are expected to rise. We predict that the company's revenue for 2024-2026 will be 327.944/361.804/386.429 billion yuan, respectively, +11.77%/+10.32%/+6.81% year-on-year; net profit to mother will be 32.241/38.137/43.395 billion yuan, respectively, +52.66%/+18.29%/+13.79%, EPS 1.21/1.43/ 1.63 yuan/share, the PE corresponding to the closing price on October 23, 2024 was 14.71X/12.44X/10.93X, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Prices of gold, copper and other metals fell sharply; project progress fell short of expectations.