美股三大股指9月收高，10月也有望录得上涨。道琼斯工业平均指数本月上涨约1.6%，标普500指数上涨1.7%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨超过2.2%。Analysts believe that markets that have not experienced seasonal weakness may have needed correction earlier, but now are very low.风险回报比Extremely low.
Although the US stocks are approaching historical highs, this has not alleviated the short-term ominous premonitions of BTIG.
September and October are usually challenging months for US stocks, but this year the market has achieved astonishing breakthroughs.
The three major US stock indexes rose in September, and are also expected to rise in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by about 1.6% this month, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by over 2.2%.
However, according to BTIG, the market now finds itself in a dangerous position.
Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at the company, wrote in a report on Monday, 'Due to the stock market not experiencing normal seasonal weakness, the market may have needed correction earlier. At this point, we have to assume that the recent strength is borrowed from the typical post-election rebound, resulting in a very low risk-reward ratio.'
Klinsky said, "Either we are experiencing the typical pre-election tension, which means the market could become quite unstable in the next two weeks, or we are facing the classic 'buy rumors, sell facts' scenario after the election. The likelihood of a stable market rise in the next 2-4 weeks is very low."
In fact, this week's performance of the stock market seems to have already reflected Klinsky's views. Due to investors withdrawing their expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the market suffered a sell-off on Monday. In addition, many investors believe that the bull market rebound may be tested before the US presidential election.
In a report on Tuesday, Wells Fargo & Co analyst Christopher Harvey wrote, "Regardless of the outcome, the US election will trigger a 'sell facts' reaction. The stock performance before this election is inconsistent with recent history, which in our view makes the risk-reward ratio unattractive in the short term," Harvey explained.
Barclays agrees with BTIG's viewpoint and has changed its recommendation to hold on global risk assets over the past few weeks. "While the macroeconomic outlook remains positive, we now suggest a cautious stance." Barclays wrote in a recent report to clients.
Barclays wrote in a recent report to clients, "We believe investors may also do the same. The rebound of risk assets is likely to stall in the coming weeks."
Editor/rice
