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中国平安首三季业绩超预期 获多家大行重申“买入”评级 目标价看高至77港元

Ping An Insurance's performance in the first three quarters exceeded expectations, receiving buy ratings from multiple major banks with target prices set as high as 77 Hong Kong dollars.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Oct 23 13:53  · Ratings

China Ping An's AH shares continued to rise in the afternoon, with A shares up nearly 4% to a high of 59.3 yuan; H shares rose more than 4% to a high of 50.15 Hong Kong dollars.

China Ping An's recent financial report for the first three quarters of 2024 showed an operating profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 113.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; a net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 119.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.1%; operating income of 861.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; annualized operating ROE of 15.9%. Among them, life and health insurance, property insurance, and banking, the three core businesses achieved growth, with a combined operating profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 119.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. New business value in life and health insurance business reached 35.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%.

After the performance announcement, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and CICC have given the latest ratings for China Ping An. Among them:

JPMorgan: Reiterated a 'shareholding' rating for China Ping An with a target price of 77 Hong Kong dollars

Morgan Stanley: Assigned a 'shareholding' rating to China Ping An with a target price of 65 Hong Kong dollars

UBS: Assigned a 'buy' rating to China Ping An with a target price of 59 Hong Kong dollars

Citigroup: Assigned a 'buy' rating to China Ping An with a target price of 52.5 Hong Kong dollars

Goldman Sachs: Maintained a 'buy' rating for China Ping An with a target price of 52 Hong Kong dollars

CICC: Maintains a "outperform" rating on Ping An Insurance with a target price of 66.9 Hong Kong dollars.

J.P. Morgan: Reaffirms a "buy" rating on Ping An Insurance. Recent market expectations for its earnings forecasts are expected to be significantly revised upwards.

JPMorgan's research report indicates that following the strong fundamental performance of Ping An Insurance in the third quarter, it is expected to return to the investment mainstream. The bank points out that investors have regained confidence in the company for three main reasons: first, new life insurance sales far exceeded expectations, with an increase in agent numbers; second, core profit recovery supports the dividend per share in the late period; third, Ping An Group continues to reduce the risk of its investment portfolio. The group's pure profit for the first nine months has reached 95% of the full-year expectations. The bank expects that the recent market profit forecasts for the company will be significantly revised upwards. The bank restates its "shareholding" rating for the company with a target price of HK$77.

Morgan Stanley: Gives a "buy" rating to Ping An Insurance. The value of new business growth in the first three quarters exceeded expectations.

Morgan Stanley's research report stated that Ping An Insurance's after-tax operating surplus for the first three quarters increased by 5.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations; the core financial business grew by 5.7%. The growth in New Business Value (VNB) was 34.1%, slightly exceeding expectations. Morgan Stanley believes that Ping An Insurance will continue to reduce risks and is confident that it has returned to a path of healthy growth. The bank gives the group a "buy" rating with a target price of 65 Hong Kong dollars.

UBS Group: Gives a "buy" rating to Ping An Insurance. Strong rebound in operating profit in the third quarter.

UBS Group's research report points out that Ping An Insurance's operating profit in the third quarter rebounded strongly; its after-tax operating surplus and New Business Value in the first three quarters grew broadly in line with expectations; after-tax net profit increased sharply by 36% year-on-year, potentially exceeding market expectations, also reaching 95% of market forecasts for the full year; Property & Casualty insurance combined ratio decreased (improved) by 1.5 percentage points to 97.8% year-on-year, better than the bank's expectations.

UBS Group predicts that Ping An Insurance's after-tax operating surplus growth will accelerate year-on-year in the fourth quarter, achieving an overall annual growth of about 10% this year. The company has not reduced dividends in the past twelve years, with an expected modest increase in annual dividends to 2.44 yuan, and an expected dividend yield of 5.4%. The bank gives a "buy" rating to the H shares of the group with a target price of 59 Hong Kong dollars.

Citigroup: Recommends a 'Buy' rating for Ping An Insurance H shares with a target price of HK$52.5

Citigroup released a report on Ping An Insurance's performance in the first three quarters, driven by premium growth and margin expansion, with new business value growing by 34.1% annually, surpassing expectations; comprehensive cost ratio improved by 1.5 percentage points, with profits growing by 36% annually in line with expectations. The bank maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price of HK$52.5 for its H shares.

Goldman Sachs: Maintains a 'Buy' rating for Ping An Insurance, raises new business value forecast for 2024-2026

Goldman Sachs released a report stating that ping an insurance's third-quarter performance roughly met the bank's full-year expectations. The new business value exceeded expectations, with significantly higher life insurance new business value than the bank and market expectations, mainly benefiting from strong growth in new policy sales and margin expansion. The bank believes that the basic operating trend of ping an insurance is improving. In order to drive further revaluation next year, the sales need to have strong momentum, and the economic growth outlook needs to improve.

In addition, the bank raised its forecast for ping an insurance's new business value for 2024 to 2026 by 9% to 13%, to reflect the profit margin expansion driven by cost efficiency improvement and product repricing surpassing expectations; operating profit forecast raised by 2% to 5%, maintaining a target price of HK$52 and a 'buy' rating.

CICC: Maintains an 'Outperform Industry' rating for Ping An Insurance, with performance in the first three quarters better than expected

CICC published a report stating that Ping An Insurance's performance in the first three quarters exceeded expectations, with a net income of 119.18 billion yuan, a 36.1% year-on-year increase, better than the bank's expectations by 2%; comparable life insurance new business value increased by 34.1% annually, corresponding to a 1.1 times increase in the third quarter year-on-year; operating profit for the first three quarters increased by 5.5% annually to 113.82 billion yuan.

The bank anticipates that considering Ping An's past reforms, recent economic policies, and various measures to promote high-quality development in the industry, the most challenging external environmental period may have passed. Ping An may now be at the beginning of a new profit growth cycle. The bank reaffirms its recommendation, maintains its profit forecast, 'Outperform Industry' rating, and unchanged target price of HK$66.9.

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