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高盛最新预计:明年油价将保持在76美元附近

Goldman Sachs latest forecast: Next year, oil prices will remain around $76.

Golden10 Data ·  Oct 23 12:52

Although there may be two-way risks in oil prices in the near future, Goldman Sachs believes that the downward risk of crude oil products is greater.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report that the average oil price is expected to reach $76 per barrel in 2025. The reason is the expected moderate oversupply of crude oil, major oil-producing countries will have idle capacity, and concerns about a potential disruption in supply from Iran have eased.

Goldman Sachs stated, "Overall, we still believe that oil prices will fluctuate bidirectionally in the range of $70-85 per barrel, but the net risks are moderately biased towards the downside, as high idle capacity and potential downside risks from broader trade tariffs outweigh the upside risks."

The investment bank stated that due to its belief that the time spread of Brent crude oil "slightly underestimates the physical supply tightness," oil prices may rise before the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated, "Despite the huge global idle capacity and undisturbed oil production in Iran so far, we do not believe that oversupply will be a certainty in 2025."

They stated that the geopolitical risk premium is limited, as the tense situation between Israel and Iran has not affected the region's oil supply, and the idle capacity of OPEC+ oil-producing countries is very high. However, as long as the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, supply risks will persist, and potential disruptions could tighten the oil balance.

On Tuesday, oil prices closed higher for the second consecutive day, as traders downplayed hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East and focused on signs of improving demand in Asia.

Oil prices in the Asian session rose slightly on Wednesday, with ING Groep analysts stating on Wednesday, "The market is still waiting for Israel's response to the missile strike on Iran." They added that Tuesday's rise in oil prices may be due to the recent visit by U.S. Secretary of State Blinken to Israel not yielding results.

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A senior official at the US State Department stated that Blinken had a 'lengthy conversation' with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior Israeli leaders, urging them to provide more humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

Israel also confirmed on Tuesday that they have killed Saffidine, who was the successor of the late Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. Nasrallah died last month in an attack by Israel on the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group.

IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong stated, 'Market participants expect the Middle East conflict to last longer, and a stalemate in the ceasefire agreement may emerge.'

Meanwhile, according to market sources citing data released on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories increased by 1.64 million barrels last week, putting pressure on oil prices. The market expects crude oil inventories to increase by only 0.3 million barrels. The official US government petroleum inventory data - EIA crude oil inventory data will be released later.

Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates stated in a report, 'With oil prices transitioning from oversold to overbought in the short term, maintaining a position on either side may be challenging.'

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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