猪鸡共振实现较好盈利，降本增效成果显著：受益于生猪与黄鸡价格的景气度，公司单三季度实现较好盈利。前三季度销售肉猪2156 万头，同比+18%，24Q3 销售肉猪719 万头，同比+10%，24Q3销售仔猪约42 万头。我们测算公司Q3 生猪养殖完全成本约为14.2元/公斤，生猪销售价格约为19.48 元/公斤，在猪价表现较好的背景下单头盈利约为640 元左右，生猪养殖业务实现盈利约46 亿元。前三季度销售肉鸡8.71 亿羽，同比+1%；24Q3 销售肉鸡3.2亿羽，同比+5%。公司Q3 肉鸡销售均价为13.14 元/公斤，我们测算肉鸡单羽盈利约为2.2 元，对应肉鸡业务实现盈利约7 亿元。Brief performance review
On October 22, 2024, the company disclosed the 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 75.384 billion yuan, +16.53% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 6.408 billion yuan, reversing the year-on-year loss. 24Q3 achieved operating income of 28.644 billion yuan, +21.89% YoY; realized net profit to mother of 5.081 billion yuan, +3097% YoY. The company plans to distribute 1.5 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders, for a total cash dividend of 0.995 billion yuan.
Management analysis
Pig and chicken resonance achieved good profits, and the results of cost reduction and efficiency were remarkable: benefiting from the boom in pig and yellow chicken prices, the company achieved good profits in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, 21.56 million pigs were sold, +18% year over year; 24Q3 sold 7.19 million pork pigs, +10% year over year; 24Q3 sold about 0.42 million piglets. We estimate that the full cost of the company's Q3 pig farming was about 14.2 yuan/kg, and the sales price of pigs was about 19.48 yuan/kg. Against the backdrop of good pig price performance, a single profit was about 640 yuan, and the pig breeding business achieved a profit of about 4.6 billion yuan. Broiler sales were 0.871 billion in the first three quarters, +1% year-on-year; in 24Q3, broiler sales were 0.32 billion, +5% year-on-year. The company's average sales price for broilers in Q3 was 13.14 yuan/kg. We estimate that a single broiler profit was about 2.2 yuan, and the corresponding broiler business achieved a profit of about 0.7 billion yuan.
Benefiting from the continuous improvement of the company's farming efficiency, the company's farming costs are declining quarterly. With the gradual optimization of the company's production indicators and production management, costs are expected to continue to decline.
Production capacity has increased steadily, and the debt ratio has declined: as of the end of September, the company's productive biological assets were 4.849 billion yuan, +1.2% month-on-month compared to the end of Q2. The company's production capacity is expected to increase steadily, laying a solid foundation for future sales growth. As profits improved, the company took the initiative to reduce the balance ratio level. As of the end of 24Q3, the balance ratio was 54.86%, down 4.09pct from 24Q2, and the company's operations were steady and improving.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect that with the arrival of the peak consumption season, we expect that Q4 pig prices will still be relatively profitable, while the slow recovery rate on the capacity side may prolong the industry's prosperity. In terms of yellow feather chicken breeding, due to the large level of breeding variance in the industry, the filling list is not active. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, yellow chicken prices are expected to follow pig prices to achieve better performance. It is expected that feed costs will still have some room to decline this year, and the farming business is expected to be relatively profitable. As an industry leader, the company continues to optimize breeding indicators, has excellent performance delivery capabilities, and is expected to fully benefit from the upward cycle. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 10.3/12.1/11.2 billion yuan in 24-26, reversing the year-on-year losses/ +18%/-8%; corresponding to EPS of 1.55/1.83/1.68 yuan. The current price of the company's stock in 24/25 corresponds to a PE valuation of 12/10X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of pig price fluctuation; risk of animal disease; risk of fluctuation in raw material prices.
