Source: Barron's Chinese Author: Nicholas Jaskinski Evan Greenberg, CEO of Chubb Ltd, has a highly influential fan - Warren Buffet, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway disclosed last month that it held 6% of the shares in Chubb, one of the world's largest insurance companies, by the end of 2023. Berkshire itself is a major participant in the insurance industry, but it is not the only buyer. In the past year, Chubb's stock return, including dividends, was about 40%, surpassing the S&P 500 index's total return of 25%, and making the company's market capitalization reach $110 billion. This increase in market capitalization reflects Chubb's outstanding performance, which is attributed to its prudent underwriting practices and conservative management of its investment portfolio of about $140 billion. The company's earnings per share increased by 48% in 2023 and its book value per share increased by 21%. Greenberg is the son of Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the former CEO of American International Group (AIG). Greenberg worked at AIG for 25 years, rising through the ranks. He left the insurance company in 2000 and took over Ace Limited in 2004. The company merged with Chubb in 2016, the largest M&A in the property and casualty insurance industry at the time. Today, Chubb is the largest commercial insurance provider in the United States, and the company is also known for its high-end homeowner insurance for the wealthy. However, about half of the company's premiums last year came from outside the United States. Asia has always been a growth area where the company is bullish: Although Asia accounts for 40% of global GDP, the insurance industry accounts for only 26% of the global insurance market share. This gap is expected to narrow over time. Greenberg sits on the board of several nonprofits that focus on international and Asian affairs. Barron's recently interviewed Greenberg about his underwriting philosophy, the challenges of dealing with increasingly frequent climate disasters, and US-China relations. Following are the edited excerpts of the conversation.

Author: Myra P. Siphon

This year, the price of gold has repeatedly reached new highs. At the same time, the price of silver has also risen. Analysts believe that the situation where the silver supply cannot keep up with the demand growth will continue to exist. By the end of this year, the price of silver may rise to $40 per ounce or higher.

Peter Spina, the president and founder of GoldSeek.com, a website that has been providing gold prices, research, and information to investors for nearly 30 years, believes that various factors from a fundamental perspective will drive silver to experience a "melt-up."

Spina said: "While gold prices continue to hit new highs, the buying pressure on silver is also increasing, with silver experiencing supply shortages for the fourth consecutive year." The Silver Institute predicts that after supply shortages in 2021, 2022, and 2023, the total global silver supply in 2024 will be close to 1.004 billion ounces, while total demand will be 1.219 billion ounces.

On Monday, the settlement price of silver futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 66.1 cents to $33.895 per ounce, up 2%. According to Dow Jones Market Data, looking at the most active December futures contracts, the settlement price of silver futures is expected to reach the highest level since November 29, 2012. So far this year, the price of silver futures for December delivery has risen by about 41%.

Skinner said: "The rise in silver prices is attracting more investors and speculators' attention, which means that silver prices are likely to rise significantly next, possibly reaching over $40 per ounce before the end of the year."

The settlement price of silver futures reached a historical high of $48.70 on January 17, 1980, and a historical high of $50.36 on January 18, 1980.

The rise in gold has always been the focus of investors, and on Monday, the price of gold reached a historic new high of $2755.40 per ounce. Skinner pointed out that the rise in gold prices makes silver prices look "cheap."

The settlement price of gold futures for December delivery was reported at $2736.40 per ounce on Monday.

Skinner pointed out that silver has been underperforming for a long time, causing frustration for many investors, as well as gold stocks and silver stocks. However, this long-standing sense of frustration is subsiding.

Skinner also pointed out that mining stocks are very worth buying, with their profit margins increasing significantly, yet their stock prices are lagging. At the same time, the trading volume of such stocks is very low, and this sector has not gained investors' attention.

Tracking the trend of precious metal mining stocks listed on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange$Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (.XAU.US)$(Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) has risen by more than 30% this year.

However, silver prices and silver stocks have relatively lagged behind. Spinna believes that this means the stage of "full-fledged catching up" has begun, and he also points out that as he has seen in the past, "investors' persistent years of frustration may dissipate in an instant."

Spinna said the combined rise stage of gold and silver stocks appears to have begun, as expected, with the silver price breaking through key resistance levels, the gold-silver ratio plummeting significantly, and when these phenomena occur, it is a time when the silver price accelerates its increase.

As of Monday, buying 1 ounce of gold requires nearly 81 ounces of silver. According to CMC Markets data, buying 1 ounce of gold has historically required around 55 ounces of silver. The currently higher ratio indicates that silver has the opportunity to outperform gold.

Spinna believes that silver rising towards $40 or higher represents more of a "monetary interest" than a sign of economic prospects.

He said silver is "following gold," with investors realizing that the structural supply shortage of silver over the past four years "will not resolve itself without prices rising."

Spinna also pointed out that in the process of rising above $40, if the silver price falls back, investors should not be too surprised, he said: "The volatility in this process will be very high, and there will be significant pullbacks."

Spinna believes that currently, the silver price will receive "solid support" around $30.

Editor/Rocky